Should we be supporting or leaving CX in these challenging times?
#271
Join Date: Sep 2015
Programs: BA Gold, IHG Spire Ambassador, Hilton Silver
Posts: 54
Most people make decisions based on emotion, then justified by logic. I'll use a gambling analogy here. I recall many years ago on a Roulette table where we had about 8 Reds in succession. Of course, the mathemtical each successive red above 4 were unlikely and heading towards astronomical at around 8. Naturally, most would bet black after the first 4 reds and doubling up (the Martingale flaw) assuming the odds would mean the next spin would be overwhelmingly black, simply because in the long run, it's a 50/50 split between red and black.
Here's what they missed. Experienced gamblers, or those with real world experience, would realize instinctively that the odds are so slim we'd have so many reds in succession, there must be something else at play. The way the dealer spins the wheel. An imbalance favoring red. Whatever. So, the smart gamblers kept betting on red until they closed the table.
When an event occurs, ignore it. If it occurs again, be wary. A third time, regardless, avoid like the plague. Whether the occurrence is caused by bad luck or sabotage is irrelevant, only that one should avoid it. HK would be well served to remember this. If these protests and disruptions continue, the outside world isn't going to give a rat's a** for your cause, and only care about the risks and will chose not to visit or "cash in their chips" and go home or to Singapore.
Here's what they missed. Experienced gamblers, or those with real world experience, would realize instinctively that the odds are so slim we'd have so many reds in succession, there must be something else at play. The way the dealer spins the wheel. An imbalance favoring red. Whatever. So, the smart gamblers kept betting on red until they closed the table.
When an event occurs, ignore it. If it occurs again, be wary. A third time, regardless, avoid like the plague. Whether the occurrence is caused by bad luck or sabotage is irrelevant, only that one should avoid it. HK would be well served to remember this. If these protests and disruptions continue, the outside world isn't going to give a rat's a** for your cause, and only care about the risks and will chose not to visit or "cash in their chips" and go home or to Singapore.
The only things that Hong Kong has going for it compared to other Chinese cities is the rule of law and if that disappears, you're right, Singapore looks a lot more attractive.
#272
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 42,301
Do you honestly believe that there is less risk of dying on 2 flights than on 1 flight, let alone a single train ride?
#273
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,752
Again, while offering my observations on a very limited scope, Ms. Lam's extradition bill has been formally withdrawn. Pure speculation here, but I'm sure even those who were silent are thankful to the Protestors for this particular result. We live and make our way in the world as it exists, not in one we wish it to be. In my view, it's time to move on, settle things down and see if the HK people can enjoy some stability and prosperity. We can cross the 2047 bridge when we get there.
#274
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Programs: CX Green, QF Platinum, BAEC Silver, Hyatt Glob
Posts: 10,780
This has drifted off topic again. You can continue to discuss this thread in OMNI.
sxc
Cathay Pacific Moderator
sxc
Cathay Pacific Moderator