Ausriver

Just waiting at QF F Syney. In my last 10 PEY trip between SYD and HKG, there was only 1 op-up, vs last year it was like more than 50%.

I do feel that there are a lot less op ups happening after 15th April. My guess is that since all the DM and GO can only guarantee Y class now (who would really?), there would be a lot less last 24 hour or 72 hour booking/change happening, so CX/KA wouldn't over sell their Y class that much.

Do you guys experience similar situation?

CXFlyerBoy

12 sectors since June and only op up on first 2. I have similar feelings like you that Y class isn't that oversold

QRC3288

It's difficult for me to tell because I've been on a lot of 33E/77G in J class, so I can't op-up much. My overall vibe is my rate (on eligible flights, aka where there's a class above) is either flat or has gone up a little since the switch.

My guess is it's highly route and class dependent. I only used the V fare guarantee for short-hauls, and CX has admittedly since they canned the guaranteed V fare and gutted Y earning rates succeeded in getting me to buy more J class regional fares as a result.

sxc

Or is the market just slowing down? CX has a regular Y+ fare to Australia for $10300 and regular Y fare for around $4k these days. These are unheard of fares before.

So are the fares low because of no guaranteed seats? Or are they low just because the economy and volume is down?

One other thing to keep in mind is that many CX people told me that the guaranteed seat wasn't really used that much.

Ausriver

I used to fly V class all the time for my work, regardless long haul and short haul, one main reason is that I normally only get to decide my schedule few days before departure. since the switch, CX has successfully get me flying E or R class now as there are normally not much price difference between KHBY and ER.

I used to felt near 100% op-ups when booking into last day V class when I see couple of J, zero or 1 W and zero Y, it does make sense as we were the pax who pushed CX oversold.

QRC3288

I think there is some serious weakness in the Australia market, at a minimum. CX is somewhat regularly swapping out the 77G to SYD for either 77H or 33K, both which have significantly fewer seats. And we don't seem to see people flooding over here to complain about IDB, or talk about sitting in the F cabin. So my bet is loads are regularly low, and CX can justify swapping out a plane with 60-100 fewer seats, and they close off the F cabin if 77H.


Yea, it was probably just maximized right at the times....CX didn't want us to. I remember the GOOOD old days, when you could get a guaranteed seat in V, and then as a Diamond get guaranteed J class award inventory in J. Effectively this was a genuine way to "buy" J to North America for 1k USD round trip plus the miles. It was a great way to travel around holiday times! Of course, this must've been a disaster for CX since that's probably when most DMs used their guarantees. Y and J class kinda ensure it's for business use. On a few occasions I've utilized the J class guarantee ex-HKG, full fare at the last minute, and it was always for business.

d00t

Not sure how one can draw the conclusion that V class changes result in less system wide op-ups.

Your 10 flights are a lot individually, but consider this:

CX operates over 1,000 flights annually SYD-HKG and your 10 fights represent a tiny portion. Flights either side of the ones you've been on may have been prime candidates for op-ups, but you were not on them.

Have you considered that CX is simply better at selling J seats this past year ex-Syd ?

Sometimes it can pay to select the 'right' flight to maximize your upgrade chances. For example, looking at flight loads this coming week, there are a number of flights which would have zero chance of up-ups.

d00t

But, but, but, but... CX needs 10 across to get more seats!

Ausriver

I think you are right. I was able to always select last day V class flight based on my schedule with op-up possibilities in consideration, without paying extra. But now it doesn't really work, I doubt any one on this forum would buy a Y ticket with great chance of op up vs a M class, if we've got the choice.

fakecd

a person with that much fool and ignorance wont be on this board so you would never hear from them

sscywong

Actually I've used the "enhanced" 24 hour guaranteed Y seat twice already in the last half year since the "enhancement" has been made......

But I'd say op-up opportunity is still a mystery... Since the enhancement once on KA PVG-HKG I was the only one got op-up (at gate)... Some other op-up at gate with some others... Nil counter / check-in / lounge upgrade so far...

But once on HKG-PEK I held Y sub-class ticket with no op-up, but another SL who is a companion of another passenger (status unknown) who is already in J scored an op-up....

p.s. Of course my trips are business trips so is settled by my company And therefore always book subclass Y...

p.p.s. Actually this is also the intention of CX to maximize their revenue right?

fakecd

if your firm still uses subclass Y as a travel policy suggest they consider alternate corporate travel agent.

i think marginal effect of your Y class guranteee doesnt alter the odds of op ups. if flight is SO full such you can only use guranteed Y (meaning it wasnt even available for sale) then the flight wud have been mega oversold and at T-48hours op up scan would have been done already, adversely affecting your as chances of op ups as a last minutr buyer. as you said you saw some unknown pax who got op upped prior to you.

Ausriver

Maybe both W & J were oversold or full as well...

From my experience, Y fare is about the same as I fare, is that correct?

percysmith

Probably both explanations (no more V guarantee and glut in Aus market) are simultaneously true.

Ausriver: any comment on loads on your recent flights where you weren't op-uped? Perhaps that may provide insight to Aus glut.

This is my only valid business critique of the changes - if the market continues to be weak, this is a terrible initiative (terrible timing). It's akin to trying to balance your budget in a depresssion. They should put this out when the market is starting to pick up again.

Ausriver

J was almost full on most flights, 0 or 1 or 2 on most flights I could remember. Y would normally end up with couple of seats left, flight load is very close to full, good for CX, but not good for us I guess. W is also quite full as far as I could remember.