percysmith

CX results out http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/list...0150819261.pdf

"The number of mainland visitors to Hong Kong dropped significantly following the protests against parallel traders in early 2015. To compensate, we have been promoting connecting traffic from Mainland China through Hong Kong, with some success. Demand for connecting flights to Australia, Europe and Japan was strong."

"Our Australian routes performed satisfactorily. Using Boeing 777-300ER aircraft on one Sydney flight a day increased capacity. In October, we will start to use Boeing 777-300ER aircraft on a second Sydney flight. Competition from non-stop services between Mainland China and Australia is increasing."

QRC3288

My bet is on CX deploying more 77G to Sydney. Having the second 77W variant (77G) is a great way for CX add capacity...gotta tip the cap to CX for making the second variant. I think 77G has 340 seats, vs 275 for 77H. CX is doing the same strategy to North America...it's a less risky and more balanced way to add capacity to a market. Australia is an even more straight-forward upguage given the existing service aircraft 33G/K/P don't have F, plus those bilateral flight restrictions imposed on CX. Sweet way to add seats without breaking the rules.

I think F to Australia is still a pipe dream, but who knows and hey if it happens I'll happily pay given I bet it'll be the cheapest longhaul F in the CX system by a wide margin. That 50k suites fare HKG to Australia on SQ is eye opening...... I've paid double that before for J class HKG to JFK.

vantage03

Agreed with LHR/MEL/Europe FF here. Australians actually pay for First Class as they are used to flying long distances. There's also a large wealthy Chinese (and Asian) population in Australia, so Hong Kong is both a destination and great hub for the community.

Most of the CX flights to Australia are full in Business Class too, in advance, especially to Sydney.

I don't think anyone is denying that being able to charge $30K USD to NYC isn't better yield for CX than charging <$10K to Sydney, but I'm sure at some point in the future if they can find an aircraft with F that can serve the route, it'll do well from a capacity perspective.

As stated above the real issue is the SQ pricing, I get these flights for less than $5,000 AUD through Amex Centurion in A-Class. Amazing considering CX Business Class starts at $6,108 AUD!

Awesom Andy

Sounds like a little bit too much credit for what is a simple business decision... Problem: need more seats. Answer: add flights/upgauge. And since you can't add flights, you fly bigger planes.

QRC3288

Ha true. I guess i was giving CX credit for *finally* getting their 77W configs right....IIRC 77G is the 4th 77W config they've operated. In less than 5 years of taking first delivery of 77W, CX had already "retired" one config (77A), was in the process of retiring another (77D).

percysmith

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...hedging-losses

"60 percent of Cathay’s passengers starting their journeys in mainland China"

kamchatsky

Too bad CX doesn't fly A380 because HKG-SYD would be perfect for it. It can do round trip in a day easily. It would accommodate F/J/Y+/Y and have plenty of seats easily, and overcomes the issue of HKG-AUS flight restrictions.

Or CX can just convert all 4 daily flights to 77W, with 2 planes on 77G and other 2 on 77H.

pacificboot

I just posted CX B777 utilization on the other post,

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/catha...yed-10hrs.html

And basically its 77W is fully stretched with virtually zero operational spares until A350 starts arriving. I would say its very unlikely for a third B777 Sydney flight until A350 starts replacing existing 77W destinations.

1010101

They're expecting 12 aircraft in 2016 so you would expect to start seeing those replacements showing up fairly soon.

QRC3288

Officially, CX has said the first A350 aircraft from Feb to May will be for crew familiarization to short haul destinations. Then, in May AKL will be introduced using two of the frames, using two a350s to replace the 77Ws which swap in to AKL in Dec. So at that time (May next year) presumably 1.5 equivalent 77G frames will free up. However, there won't be any free A350 frames for additional longhaul service beyond AKL until June or July.

A lot depends on the market, but the factors going against more than 2 77Gs to Australia are that CX still has more needs for them to North America. LAX is switching a few days a week to 77G, and the freed-up 77H will start the new service to DUS. SFO has a 2.5 flights/day service, if CX wants go to triple daily another frame will be needed. And if CX wants to go BOS daily (77H), or make CDG double daily (needs another 77G) instead of 1.5x daily, all of these will require frames. All of which will be yield considerations. Plus maybe if DUS does well CX might want to go daily there (77H). Point is, CX needs those 77Ws to serve those missions.

My bet is Australia gets 2 daily 77G, then A350s start replacing A330s in June next year.

1010101

By the end of May they will have 5 aircraft. I personally think CX is being conservative on its rollout plan.

QRC3288

Haha if production runs smoothly from here out... Youre definitely right if Airbus comes through as promised. It's possible CX just doesn't want to count on Airbus successfully ramping to 3 (and later 5) deliveries/month as soon as Airbus claims they can. Roughly speaking, I think CX will have 5 A350s around the time Airbus has delivered 25-30 planes total. Right now there are 5 total deliveries. If there are any unforeseen issues with the A350 line not being able to ramp up fast enough, then CX is unlikely to have 5 by May.

jacobsleather

CX161/2 will switch to 77G from the end of October 2017.

http://australianaviation.com.au/201...-300er-flight/

QRC3288

great news. That must mean 77G is coming off another route somewhere. I wonder what it is.

G-CIVC

FCO