fakecd

i also know cx138 is always full sunday due to commuters. you will be surprised how many fly back to sydney for weekend ane return to hk for work monday

QRC3288

77H to SYD has actually been happening on a substitution basis quite frequently. Sometimes 33K and 33E are subbed too instead of 77G, fwiw...its not just 77H.

This isn't about subbing in more premium seats at all....this is about bad yields and overcapacity. This is definitely an endictment of how bad the market is to Australia, not good.

I can't imagine VX entering an already-soft market is helping things at all. They just launched MEL-HKG. Meanwhile CX and QF have all upped capacity via equipment upgrades. Meanwhile CX has some of the cheapest J tickets to Oz I've ever seen ex-HKG. Don't think for a minute this is happening out of strength. The 77G fleet is tighter than 77H and so if a 77G or two goes tech, one of the first routes looking to get swapped out is SYD. That is a 65 (!!!) seat capacity reduction, and even more to 33K and 33E. It's bad.

The 77G fleet gets more slack this fall, when SFOs 3rd daily flight goes from 77G to 35G, EWR goes from 77G to 35G, LAX loses 77G entirely, and FCO switches back from 77G to 35G. Ironically some of these free birds are then being rotated into MEL and SYD.

At this stage I gotta think part of the mentality is a reaction to VX, and fighting them tooth and nail. Going to be great for travelers to/from Australia, I imagine J fares will be superb. Not good for the airlines doing the fighting.

percysmith

Great for us. We are Flyertalk not Airlinetalk right?

QRC3288

bingo. this is definitely the time to be a J-class ticket buyer to Australia. Oz fliers ex-HKG haven't had it this good in J class pricing as long as I can remember.

I imagine MH's problems and recovery, and all their cheapo J class fares I keep reading about, aren't helping either.

kamchatsky

The whole Australia - China open skies agreement ruins it for CX. Now just about every Chinese airline flies to Australia from all those secondary cities.

http://australianaviation.com.au/201...nt-with-china/

Ironically there is no Australia - HK open skies agreement.

VA joining the race doesn't help, and Hainan Group seems to have deep pockets.

fakecd

its part CX complacency (dont even talk about management). they pretty much had market dominance. 4 flights sydney as a starter and ex aus night departure a killer to win business traveller. they really had knife on QF by their neck to finish QF on hk routes.. couple years back

fast forward... they jacked up pricing, devalued MPC (loss of V gurantee), and literally *+@# everyone living in their sense of superiority which is now misguided.... meantime QF made magnificant come back, HX joined in and now Virgin... opem skies china aus...service decline... they lost all the good will.

now ironically they are further damping yields with heavy discounts J fare... i dont even dare guess how much op ups take places from ultra cheepo Y.fare... so its not sustainable.

G-CIVC

My feeling is that CX will have to go in one direction or another: either gain enough market power and popularity become the Asian ME3 between Europe/NA, Asia and Aus/NZ - lots of 2nd tier to 2nd tier cities with their A359 etc, or downsize to raise yields by just keeping their bread and butter (ie, a premium airline between major wealthy cities only) - think JL post bankruptcy. I certainly hope the latter does not happen...

percysmith

I think the latter is inevitable though. I'm hopeful CX will one day find slot hogging unsustainable.

Kachjc

if CX had any brains they would be aggressively expanding their destinations,

VX will go bankrupt soon - QF is more worrying for CX
In fact no Hainan sub except Hainan makes money- will see how long it lasts

percysmith

Predatory pricing may well force out VA and HX.

I hardly think CX has the wherewithal to sink the PRC majors though.

In any case more supply - CX/QF/VA/HX/CZ/MU/CA - is all good, while it lasts.
Even if I or my family cannot care to take some of the alternatives for ourselves
(e.g.
- VA/CZ/MU/CA isn't really leave-efficient for me
- HX flies to the wrong cities
- CZ/MU/CA doesn't work for my brother's politics even with TWOV
- family matriarch is so inflexible it's CX161/162 or she's not flying)

JeCCo

F full with DM's
J completely full (wife was Op-upped from PEY, I was in J already )
PEY completely full

didnt take a look at Y

They called out over 10 names to go over to the desk at the gate before boarding so I assume a lot of musical chairs and were upgrades happening.

JeCCo

If this is a constant thing going forward then this would predispose me to book more 77W flights (being 101/100 and 139/138) as the upgrade chances will be higher.

I guess also worth monitoring the seat map more closely as well to at least have a chance at requesting the F seat if the 77H is indeed on.

G-CIVC

I wouldn't put too much weight on this as I guess QRC3288's point is there may be a 77H sub to SYD maybe once every one or two months versus once a year to other 77G routes like JNB and AMS. Moot overall.

QRC3288

The chances of a sub to an A333 are higher than a sub to 77H. A333 is getting subbed on that route on average of once or twice a week.

I don't know all the flights, but I know of at least one 77H to SYD where the F cabin was completely closed off. My buddy was in J as a DM and asked to sit in the F section. Was told it was not available for anyone. He managed to peek in, and indeed 0/6.

Again, I think the point to remember this is being done because the Oz yields are crap, not because things are going well. Chances are J is also not going to be full...hence CX can send an A333 instead. It's not like they have so much J demand they must put the 77H on the route. It's more like the contrary.

yea

bart simpson

Is the yield that bad? I'm surprised CX still 'upgrades' a couple of flights from 333 to 77W to Australia then.