Originally Posted by QRC3288 (Post 36229464)

Although the intention is good I think you might get even get led further astray from anecdotes. The reality is the route really matters (related to how many Diamonds are on your flight), load factor matters (and this is highly variable, especially in this weird post-covid ramp up), class of service you're in matters (Y to PEY? Y to J on non-PEY planes? J to F? PEY to J?), plane type matters (regional config? long-haul with or without PEY? yes or no f class section?), etc.

But I'll throw my numbers in the hat because why not. I am a Diamond, and have flown on op-up-eligible flights (economy class) regionally on I think 4 sectors if I'm counting right since HK dropped quarantine in november 2022. I was upgraded twice I think (including a quadruple upgrade with Mrs. QRC, helper and little one, that one is easy to remember)....but both were to/from Taipei, on planes without PEY (one was regional plane, the other was a long-haul A330 without PEY). I've got a bunch of other flights but no upgrade was possible due to biz or f already.

From my opinion, I would say most important factor above all else which you have some "control" in guessing fairly accurately, is how Diamond-heavy is the route and is it a business flight or not. SIN, TPE, PEK, PVG used to be key destinations with a lot of Diamonds (although Taipei at certain times of day or weekend can be tourist heavy), and my instinct is that someone less than Gold did not have more than a tiny chance on such flights. Although as I write this I realize I don't even know the CX op-up priority anymore! I've been back and forth to Singapore on many sectors since quarantine lifted and I admit to glancing at that thing in galley or at crew iPads. I still see a lot of Diamonds on Singapore flights.

I have yet to figure out patterns to CX flights and what's going on these days. For example I just noticed flights to Singapore were cut to 4x daily some time recently. Went to book a flight there in a few days, and J class seems half full just a few days out. It all still seems very much in flux and not quite as predictable as pre-Covid. That's my two cents

Originally Posted by percysmith (Post 36229535)

It's also very easy on PE (even redemption PE) to/from Aus/NZ.
Revenue oversells Y, bumps the elites from Y to PE, bumps everyone in PE to J. I've done it, and even my status-less brother's done it



My mate's also heard from his dad and brother than CX lounges open 24/7 too https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/cath...l#post36110009

Originally Posted by mht34 (Post 36264560)

Data point - HKG to LHR, PE cabin completely full, DM, no op-up despite a fair few empty seats in J empty. Huge difference from pre Covid where op-ups actually existed. Imo CX has gone severely downhill since Covid. Didn’t even get the usual cabin manager pre-flight greeting

Originally Posted by percysmith (Post 36264600)

What is your expectation? Op-ups to J should occur even if PE is not oversold?

I got opuped from PE to J from AKL mid last year as OWS.

Originally Posted by mht34 (Post 36264610)

… but PE was completely full though. Pre-Covid I had around 1/3 success rate of op-ups ex-HKG to LHR and CDG, it’s been completely 0 for the past three years. For the price point it’s becoming increasingly tempting to switch to SQ.

Originally Posted by mht34 (Post 36264610)

… but PE was completely full though. Pre-Covid I had around 1/3 success rate of op-ups ex-HKG to LHR and CDG, it’s been completely 0 for the past three years. For the price point it’s becoming increasingly tempting to switch to SQ.

Originally Posted by SLGO (Post 36266284)

I have an impression that CX flights are not as full as pre-Covid. They used to be able to somehow get their flights full in all classes, but now even flights to Tokyo or London may not completely full in low(er) season. It surely affects the chance of op-up.

Originally Posted by phh1998 (Post 36274811)

I am planning to book a Economy Essential multi-city ticket for HKG-SGN & SIN-HKG. Would I be able to use AM to upgrade the SIN-HKG leg [i.e., from Y to PE] only without upgrading the HKG-SGN leg [i.e., sticking with Y]? And if yes, is this something that might be problematic to do online on the CX website, or is it fairly straightforward?

Also, after I upgrade the SIN-HKG leg from Y to PE using Asia Miles, can I then use Manage Booking on the CX website to swap out my CX FFN and replace it with my BA FFN (I have BA Silver/OW Sapphire and CX Green, so I want to swap in my BA FFN once the Asia Miles upgrade is done) for BA mileage accrual and OW Sapphire benefits across the full multi-city HKG-SGN, SIN-HKG itineary?