I originally felt that PEY->J op-up should be easy as there are only a few PEY seats, but I feel differently now:
* I only had very few PEY->J op-ups.
* I have been purchasing J in $ or W/R->U recently to secure a J seat lately. If everyone is thinking the same way as me, CX does not need to op-up anyone to J.

In the past, CX may put you at the bottom of the list if you ask, but my wife asked the check-in agent on her birthday (about 2-3 years ago) and was upgraded at the gate. My feeling was that she was already picked for birthday upgrade but CX just needed to make sure not all F seats were taken before upgrading her.

I fly regularly from MEL-HKG and return, buying R or W class tickets and using points to upgrade to U, usually on the night flights CX178 and CX105. I'm a MPO Gold. Over the last 3 years as a Gold, I've been getting upgraded probably 80% of the time (out of roughly 20 flights over that 3 years). Typically the upgrade comes through about 3-4 weeks before departure, sometimes more and sometimes less.

I have a trip in two weeks' time. The Expertflyer seat maps show 19 seats empty in J on the MEL-HKG and 9 seats empty in J on the return. That's not counting the 6 seats marked as blocked. But two weeks out, my redemption upgrade still hasn't cleared. This seems strange - I'm used to the upgrade clearing 3-4 weeks out if there are even half a dozen empty seats in J. With that number of empties, I will probably just be able to upgrade at the airport, but I'm just curious as to why the system hasn't cleared it yet. Has anyone noticed redemption upgrades getting more difficult lately? Could this be a side effect of the new upgrade cash bidding system?

Anything to do w/ CNY?

Don't think so, flights are on 5 & 10 Feb, well before CNY.

Second guess...wasn't CX105 changed to 35G in the last year or so? Does the equipment change maybe have anything to do with it? Maybe slightly altered what you were familiar with? That's all I can think of, outside CX is holding seats back for some reason.

10 Feb HKG-MEL should be pretty hot. All those parents and grandparents from HK and China.

I am Marco Polo Green member with some 200points, and with some 60k asia miles. I recently travelled from TPE to CEB via HKG. Upon check in at TPE, i was told that my HKG to CEB seat was upgraded to premium economy. Well, there was surprise I wasnt expecting. But during boarding at HKG (on the way to CEB), scanning my boarding pass resulted to an error, and I was given a new boarding pass upgrading me to Business.

Well what a delight! It was the long haul business class product. great experience, for too short a flight.

Another data point:
MPC GO travelling with MPC SL on same PEY ticket. On SL's birthday, both got upgraded from Y to J (no PEY in aircraft). On day after SL's birthday, no upgrade, remained in PEY.

Was that particular segment also ticketed in PEY (i.e., from PEY to J instead of Y to J)?

Well, I flew on CX178 on 5 Feb. The redemption upgrade never cleared, but on check-in I used points for an instant upgrade. There were 3 spare J class seats.

PEY was also half empty on the flight, so it seems like redemption upgrades depend more on your original class being almost full, and less on the class you're upgrading to being empty. Whereas instant upgrade will be available any time there are spare seats in the class you're upgrading to. I guess that makes sense, with redemption upgrades they are shuffling pax around to make space for more revenue pax. With instant upgrades, they may as well get some value out of seats that would otherwise go empty.

Does anyone know whether instant upgrades cost less if you upgrade both legs of a return trip? By that, I mean that with redemption upgrades, upgrading MEL-HKG costs 12,500 one way or 22,500 return. Do instant upgrades also give you a "discount" if you upgrade both legs or do they just charge 12,500 each way? EDIT: Found a post by cx1960 which answers this question! Answer is yes, return discount applies! Nice!!

First segment ticketed in Y (H fare class), second segment ticketed in PEY (E fare class). At time of booking, the first segment's aircraft clearly did not have PEY available and it stayed that way till actual departure.

Flew on KA760 HKG-KMG booked in I as a CX DM. Earlier that day I had noticed in MMB that my seat number had changed from 15A to 1A. Very pleasantly surprised by that. There seemed to be a few places left in the standard J cabin, and we were only 2 pax in the F cabin.

Returning tomorrow in (wh)Y, am hoping that the upgrade fairy will smile at me, alas so far no cigar...

Has anyone ever had an opt up from premium economy (E) to business on a long haul flight from HKG to YVR? Wasn't able to purchase a W/R class ticket this time around, and just wondering what my odds are on a check in upgrade. I've had lots of E to J upgrades within Asia flights but this will be the first time I'm flying E on a long haul.