Hi all - need some advice on an issue I have.

I need to take a specific roundtrip flight on Cathay (specifically, flight 841 11/30/12 NYC->HKG and flight 840 12/16/12 HKG->NYC) that as of now has no reward availability. It doesn't appear that the flights are close to booked (though I can't say that for sure). I have both BA, American, and some Asia Miles available to book should availability open up.

My question is, how risky do you think it is to wait for availability to open up given that I need to take these two specific flights and I am hoping to avoid paying a higher price than the $1300 currently quoted? Does anyone have any insight into how likely reward availability will open up in the coming weeks or how to check more specifically how crowded this route is (which i assume would influence the price potentially increasing)?

Really appreciate any thoughts on this issue. Thanks

-Matt

edit: title should read "Waiting for availability on a specific flight"...sry

Availability generally opens up, but what are the consequences if it doesn't? Some flexibility in flights would make this easier to predict.

My personal rule is, If you must fly, then you must buy. This is the second question of this type we've had in the past couple months. Can't find the other thread at the moment, but my answer there was the same: Miles are great if you have a degree of flexibility. If you absolutely must travel on those dates and those specific flights (presumably you "need" to take these flights to mesh up with work or some other commitment) and a redemption ticket is not available now, you're better off buying a revenue ticket. If you can afford the currently available revenue fare but wouldn't be able to afford a higher fare later, you should probably pay now.

That is what I was going to say! You asked if it was risky? Yes it is. If you MUST be on THOSE flights open up your checkbook, the price is probably only going up from here!

But, I could be wrong... no way to predict really.

I have a post a week or so ago asking about award availability from ORD to DFW on a specific date in June. Since I do have a flexible schedule I found dates in April that worked better.

Good luck, hope it works out for you!

thanks all for the insights. Yes, clearly it'd be a risky move waiting much longer to book as I do need to take these flights. I guess I was more just trying to get a feel for how likely reward availibility would open up and if it were to, when cathay typically would release that. I know there is no black and white answer to either of these questions, but if anyone has any experience and cares to opine, would love to hear your thoughts.