Hi all - need some advice on an issue I have.

I need to take a specific roundtrip flight on Cathay (specifically, flight 841 11/30/12 NYC->HKG and flight 840 12/16/12 HKG->NYC) that as of now has no reward availability. It doesn't appear that the flights are close to booked (though I can't say that for sure). I have both BA, American, and some Asia Miles available to book should availability open up.

My question is, how risky do you think it is to wait for availability to open up given that I need to take these two specific flights and I am hoping to avoid paying a higher price than the $1300 currently quoted? Does anyone have any insight into how likely reward availability will open up in the coming weeks or how to check more specifically how crowded this route is (which i assume would influence the price potentially increasing)?

Really appreciate any thoughts on this issue. Thanks

-Matt

edit: title should read "Waiting for availability on a specific flight"...sry