Hope this is the correct forum?

Going to Toronto from the UK mid-May. The Canadian dollar is dropping like a stone,allegedly due to the impending Brit general election.
Is it worth waiting til after the election for it to recover?
Better off taking the GBP and exchanging it over in Toronto?
Or get the canadian currency now?

I dont bother with money cards etc - just take the cash.

Thanks in advance.

The value of the dollar has nothing to do with elections but it does have to do with interest rates, oil prices, and speculators. Cash is a bad investment and you pay a lot for the conversion. If you exchange too much, you have to pay those fees twice. Find a credit card that doesn't charge fees for foreign exchange. If you want cash, wait until you arrive and use an ATM.

Scotia Bank is part of the Global ATM alliance so if you bank with one of those banks and have a bank card from them (Berclays, etc) you might get good exchange rates and no ATM fees at the Scotia Bank ATMs in Toronto.

I would be loath to accept currency speculation advice from anyone. If someone tells you they know what the exchange rate will be on your trip, they are psychic or a liar.

BTW, I don't believe in psychics.

Find it hard to believe Brit election would have influence on CDN dollar, but who knows

Sounds about right to me.

I would just use ATM once I get to Canada, that will most likely get you best rate @:-)

The Canadian dollar has dropped a lot in the past year, and quite a bit this calendar year. Who knows what will happen down the road. However, over the past couple of weeks it has actually risen a bit versus the pound, so I'm not sure what the OP is referring to about it "dropping like a stone".

GBPCAD was 1.94 at the end of Feb. It's now 1.82.

Thing is, this is the Pound falling, not the Canadian dollar. The OP is just describing it wrong.

There's a degree of uncertainty over what will happen politically in the UK next month, so markets are discounting the Pound as a result.

Whilst the UK election clearly has no bearing on the strength of the Canadian Dollar, it is weakening the Pound.

To the OP - what's realistically going to happen from here - a move of 10% is probably about all.

WOW, i am looking at a trip this fall & see the CAD $ values . So will the CAD $ be below 70 cents US ?. The oil price forecast is $43 for this fall.

Those who can foresee the future can make a killing ^

The rest of us, well, at least me, I'm not clairvoyant

IMO, the three biggest things influencing the CAD/USD rate right now are:
- Price of oil
- The US Fed and Bank of Canada going in opposite directions
- The Canadian economy likely heading into a technical recession.

Some other analysts I follow suggested $65 by the fall based on the fact that the gap between supply and demand isn't that great but the ever evolving supply side of the equation keeps throwing curves in this prediction and the price of oil is now falling after a bit of a rally.

There's a good chance that the Fed raises rates in the US in September but it's dependent on a number of economic indicators. And there's been talk about raising rates for a year now but it keeps getting pushed out. The BoC just dropped its rate to 0.5% but it's doubtfully it will drop lower.

And unless some miracle happens in the June GDP numbers, Canada will enter a technical recession. All things considered, the economy has been bad but not that bad. The real question is whether or not the economy picks up as expected in the second half of the year.

Depending on how the above things evolve, I wouldn't discount seeing the loonie dropping below 70cents USD, particularly how the rates have over-swung because of currency speculators, but I wouldn't necessarily say it's a sure thing either.

I always laugh at these threads. If we could reliably predict currency fluctuations months in advance we'd all be billionaires. The post above correctly describes the macro factors affecting CAD/USD. The 12 month outlook for CAD is poor while the outlook for USD is excellent. That's basically all we know right now.

So travel in Canada could be a good value with USD this next 12 months.

For shale oil the new normal for $45 oil is now $60.

The days of parity are a couple of years in the past, it's been good value for a while @:-)

Now the transborder flights, well that's another story

Though, must say flighs in past 12 months have been much cheaper that previous two or three years ^