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How windy is “windy” on Sunday at Heathrow? [Storm Isha]

How windy is “windy” on Sunday at Heathrow? [Storm Isha]

Old Jan 18, 2024, 9:40 am
  #16  
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I’ve calibrated my expectations post-Covid, all I am asking for nowadays is getting home on the day that I’ve booked - and even that’s been a challenge!
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 9:41 am
  #17  
 
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Originally Posted by Sigwx
A very aptly named app for this. Windy. It suggests that at present it is looking like a south westerly at 20kts sort of a day. That in itself is no biggy, it is the winds at 3000ft that affect the flow of traffic down the approach. Wait and see for now I’d say but it doesn’t look like the sort of day that gets a certain individual to drive into a field and stand on top of his van all day making weird noises whilst live streaming planes. Perhaps some small delays, but nothing spectacular.
I love the Windy app, I can entertain myself for hours on it!
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 11:45 am
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Originally Posted by Sigwx
A very aptly named app for this. Windy. It suggests that at present it is looking like a south westerly at 20kts sort of a day. That in itself is no biggy, it is the winds at 3000ft that affect the flow of traffic down the approach. Wait and see for now I’d say but it doesn’t look like the sort of day that gets a certain individual to drive into a field and stand on top of his van all day making weird noises whilst live streaming planes. Perhaps some small delays, but nothing spectacular.
Have you ever had the misfortune to have you-know-who commentate on one of your landings, Sigwx ?
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 2:15 pm
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Try this …. Enter flight info. Only works for current and next day https://turbli.com
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 3:23 pm
  #20  
 
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Originally Posted by BAECAddict
Have you ever had the misfortune to have you-know-who commentate on one of your landings, Sigwx ?
Yet to have a full filibuster, but the kids have replayed the odd clip with some ‘interesting’ comments. My retort, if posted here, would get me banned by the mods so I’d best just leave it to the galley rant I had on my subsequent trip
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 5:38 pm
  #21  
 
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Folks, it's not the wind speed. It's the cross wind components. Generally some planes can't take it above 25 knots (29 mph), and by 35 knots (40 mph) no planes can land.

So just going by Met Office forecast (3 hourlies): 3 pm Sun SSW 18G34KT, 6 pm Sun SSW 18G37KT, 9 pm Sun SSW 21G42KT, 12 am Mon SW 23G46KT, 3 am SW 19G38KT.

That's >25 knots cross winds 3 pm to 3 am and >35 knots 6 pm to midnight.
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 5:56 pm
  #22  
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Originally Posted by HkCaGu
Folks, it's not the wind speed. It's the cross wind components. Generally some planes can't take it above 25 knots (29 mph), and by 35 knots (40 mph) no planes can land.

So just going by Met Office forecast (3 hourlies): 3 pm Sun SSW 18G34KT, 6 pm Sun SSW 18G37KT, 9 pm Sun SSW 21G42KT, 12 am Mon SW 23G46KT, 3 am SW 19G38KT.

That's >25 knots cross winds 3 pm to 3 am and >35 knots 6 pm to midnight.
Where are you getting these limitations that some planes cant take off with crosswinds over 25 knots and no planes can land over 35 knots?
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 7:09 pm
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Originally Posted by KARFA
Where are you getting these limitations that some planes cant take off with crosswinds over 25 knots and no planes can land over 35 knots?
Did I say take off? I said landing. And I said cross wind components, not wind speed.
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 7:55 pm
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I wouldn't worry about this too much. We landed last year in one of the big storms- our flight was one of the "highlights" on BigJet TV due to our sporty landing. I will be honest, other than the captain asking that everyone, including crew, were seated with 45mins to run (he did his regular 45min announcement at 60mins), there really was no difference. A wee bit of a crosswind but the majority of rocking was much earlier in decent. I've had much worse on non storm days landing into SFO for example.
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 11:42 pm
  #25  
 
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Originally Posted by Sheikh Yerbooty
The problem with said highly complex mathematical models, is that they're based on historical data. Our climate is, however, changing so rapidly that historical data no longer provides reliable forecasts....
I think you'll find the mathematical models are mathematical equations (physics). They are calibrated and validated against historic data. Because the same maths/physics holds true even with warmer seas/air, there is no reason to discount all weather models.

On thread, I punt Sunday evening could have some disruption, particularly at Gatwick.
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 12:47 am
  #26  
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Originally Posted by HkCaGu
Did I say take off? I said landing. And I said cross wind components, not wind speed.
Sorry I misread.

I still don’t get where you are finding theses. Despite your claim, to be clear LHR will not come to a stop even if the full crosswind component is 35 knots. Also which planes can’t land above 25 knots crosswind?
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 2:34 am
  #27  
 
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I'm keeping a close eye on this thread as I'm supposed to be flying LHR-ABZ-LHR on Monday. To be honest I'm more worried about ABZ, particularly due to the runway orientation. I'm hoping if there are cancellations that they're planned in advance early in the day, but I suspect that may not be the case. I'm hoping given the worst is expected on Sunday that it doesn't persist into Monday.
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 2:56 am
  #28  
 
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It’s now a named storm, Isha.
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 3:11 am
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by GumshoeW12
It’s now a named storm, Isha.
Yes, and as expected the yellow warning has been extended to cover SE England, including Heathrow.

I know some are sceptical about weather forecasts, but one thing the models handle very well is a blast from the SW!

There's still potential for change, but I would expect to be reading about delays on Sunday...

I've pasted the warning in below:

Strong winds associated with Storm Isha are expected to develop widely across the UK on Sunday, persisting into Monday across parts of England and Wales. Within the warning area, many places are likely to see southwesterly winds gust to around 50-60 mph and gusts may reach 60-70 mph for exposed locations (e.g. coasts). There remains a chance of stronger winds impacting parts of this area for a time but this aspect remains uncertain with further updates to the warning to be expected over the coming days.
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 4:24 am
  #30  
 
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Originally Posted by KARFA
Where are you getting these limitations that some planes cant take off with crosswinds over 25 knots and no planes can land over 35 knots?
Not really - A320 family max crosswind for landing is 38 knots and the A350 it’s 40 knots. My personal ability level may be lower than unless you have a sports bra and a gum shield, and who (apart from me) travels with those on a regular basis?
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