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How windy is “windy” on Sunday at Heathrow? [Storm Isha]

How windy is “windy” on Sunday at Heathrow? [Storm Isha]

Old Jan 18, 2024, 1:29 am
  #1  
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How windy is “windy” on Sunday at Heathrow? [Storm Isha]

I know we are still somewhat in Crystal Ball territory, but the weather forecasts for Sunday night are predicting “very windy” conditions - no weather warnings for Heathrow, just the west coast, but gusts up to 45 mph.
I am embarking on a leisure trip to BER tomorrow and really have to get back on Sunday. If as forecast, how bad will this be compared to previous “wind” events?
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 1:42 am
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Originally Posted by Quark999
I know we are still somewhat in Crystal Ball territory, but the weather forecasts for Sunday night are predicting “very windy” conditions - no weather warnings for Heathrow, just the west coast, but gusts up to 45 mph.
I am embarking on a leisure trip to BER tomorrow and really have to get back on Sunday. If as forecast, how bad will this be compared to previous “wind” events?
A very aptly named app for this. Windy. It suggests that at present it is looking like a south westerly at 20kts sort of a day. That in itself is no biggy, it is the winds at 3000ft that affect the flow of traffic down the approach. Wait and see for now I’d say but it doesn’t look like the sort of day that gets a certain individual to drive into a field and stand on top of his van all day making weird noises whilst live streaming planes. Perhaps some small delays, but nothing spectacular.
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 1:50 am
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Great, thanks for the reassurance 👍🏻
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 2:33 am
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Originally Posted by Sigwx
A very aptly named app for this. Windy. It suggests that at present it is looking like a south westerly at 20kts sort of a day. That in itself is no biggy, it is the winds at 3000ft that affect the flow of traffic down the approach. Wait and see for now I’d say but it doesn’t look like the sort of day that gets a certain individual to drive into a field and stand on top of his van all day making weird noises whilst live streaming planes. Perhaps some small delays, but nothing spectacular.
Outright laughed.

Are you saying that what could be quite good footage of magnificent planes isn't improved by shouting 'BOSH!' and 'YOU GOT THIS, FELLA!' over the top?
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 2:44 am
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Originally Posted by AviationMoose
Outright laughed.

Are you saying that what could be quite good footage of magnificent planes isn't improved by shouting 'BOSH!' and 'YOU GOT THIS, FELLA!' over the top?
No comment
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 3:16 am
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Originally Posted by Quark999
I know we are still somewhat in Crystal Ball territory, but the weather forecasts for Sunday night are predicting “very windy” conditions - no weather warnings for Heathrow, just the west coast, but gusts up to 45 mph.
I am embarking on a leisure trip to BER tomorrow and really have to get back on Sunday. If as forecast, how bad will this be compared to previous “wind” events?
It's going to be pretty windy, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a yellow warning nearer the time.

Depending on which model you prefer, you're looking at anywhere from gusts in the mid 40s to the low 50s (mph) by Sunday evening, with some (e.g. the American GFS) then going into the low to mid 60s by the early hours of Monday morning. At this range, it could still change a bit, either in terms of strength or timings.

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/heathrow
(The American GFS)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2647216
(European ECM)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2024-01-24
(Met Office MOGREPS)

Nothing too crazy by the looks of it, but might be enough to introduce delays.
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 3:43 am
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I'm interested in this too, for next Wednesday. I've been checking weather and wind forecasts and it doesn't bode too well for Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning.

I have a positioning flight to LIS, BA500 which is scheduled to depart at 07:05. Any insignificant delay to this flight won't be the problem as I have a 3hr turnaround in LIS. It's the BA507 departing LIS at 12:55, scheduled to land back at LHR at 15:45 and connecting me to CX250 to HKG at 17:50, which I am concerned about. Any lengthy delay to this flight and I won't make it. Back up plan is to track the BA506 outbound and if there is any delay more than an hour then I will ask to be rebooked onto BA31 (17:40 departure from T5). Flightradar has shown that BA507 has been on time or early everyday past 7 days.

I have a free HEX single ticket for 24th Jan from Paddington if anyone would like it. I have booked a Hertz car rental instead as I am taking more luggage than I initially thought. Do send me a PM with your email and I will respond to the first person who messages me. This ticket is one way only in standard class on any HEX service FROM Paddington.
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 4:20 am
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In general terms, never trust a weather forecast projecting more than 18-24 hours into the future. Anything beyond that is merely guesswork and the impact on aviation cannot me accurately assessed.

I only use TAFs and METARs, trusting the latter far more than the former for the sole reason it is only valid for 1 hour and is updated every 30 minute (usually 20 and 50 minutes past the hour).

Here's a nifty link to a site which will display TAF and METAR for almost all airports in the world serving commercial traffic: https://avwx.propilots.net/

The forecast (TAF) and actual (METAR) for LHR (EGLL) is currently as follows (Top line is METAR, bottom line is TAF):

EGLL 181050Z AUTO 29005KT 9999 NCD M00/M06 Q1007
TAF EGLL 180453Z 1806/1912 32006KT CAVOK BECMG 1908/1911 25010KT

Run it on Saturday evening to get a better idea of the weather on Sunday. What you should be looking for is visibility and wind (bolded above).

Current wind is 290 at 5 knots, i.e. the wind comes from 290 degrees (west-south-west), and that's more or less straight down the runway and is no issue at all.

You should start worrying if there's a crosswind of more than 25 knots, which may prevent landings, or if the wind component is above 40-45 knots, as that will impair ground handling (might mean that airbridges cannot be used).

Current visibility is "9999", i.e. more than 10 km.

For visibility, you want to see 500 meters or more. What you really want to see is "CAVOK", meaning that there's no issues with either visibility or cloud cover.
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 5:02 am
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Originally Posted by Sheikh Yerbooty
In general terms, never trust a weather forecast projecting more than 18-24 hours into the future. Anything beyond that is merely guesswork
<braces for the deluge of posts from meteorologists outraged at the dismissive 'merely guesswork' comment>
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 5:05 am
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Originally Posted by Oxon Flyer
<braces for the deluge of posts from meteorologists outraged at the dismissive 'merely guesswork' comment>
“highly complex mathematical models” etc etc 😁😁
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 8:28 am
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The problem with said highly complex mathematical models, is that they're based on historical data. Our climate is, however, changing so rapidly that historical data no longer provides reliable forecasts.

Being a meteorologist must be the easiest job in the world; issue a forecast and if it’s a million miles from what actually happens, no drama, blame whatever and try again tomorrow.*

*large doses of salt recommend when digesting this statement.

Last edited by Sheikh Yerbooty; Jan 18, 2024 at 8:33 am
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 8:33 am
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When there were high winds at LHR on January 2nd our BA113 scheduled for 1620 actually left at 1830 since they couldn’t drive us in the bus from gate A10 to the steps they originally planned to use on the remote stand. Then we changed to a new gate, C something, and boarded by jetbridge from there (but apparently the winds were high enough at one point to even restrict the use of jetbridges not just outdoor steps).
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 8:38 am
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Forecast to be pretty windy (40mph+) after 3pm, but nothing planes cannot handle. Maybe just a little bumpy!
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 8:43 am
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Originally Posted by AviationMoose
Outright laughed.

Are you saying that what could be quite good footage of magnificent planes isn't improved by shouting 'BOSH!' and 'YOU GOT THIS, FELLA!' over the top?
You forgot EASY SON
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Old Jan 18, 2024, 9:39 am
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Originally Posted by AviationMoose
Outright laughed.

Are you saying that what could be quite good footage of magnificent planes isn't improved by shouting 'BOSH!' and 'YOU GOT THIS, FELLA!' over the top?
I don’t mind watching the livestream but only on mute, can’t stand the commentary, utter drivel. “Easy, easy”
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