Likelihood of BA to SYD Xmas 2021
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: LCY/DXB/MCY
Programs: BA Silver / SQ Sol PPS / KE & EK Nobody!
Posts: 398
Likelihood of BA to SYD Xmas 2021
Currently investigating fares VIE-SYD via for Xmas 2021 on the off-chance that Emperor Morrison decides fully vaccinated people can enter the country (and still quarantine for a fortnight - just at home would be nice!)
BA have come up cheapest by some margin at an eye-watering €6.5k for two in J to SYD. Ouch.
That being said, as is often the problem these days, there's booking a flight and then there's actually sitting in your seat and taking off. Am I right in fearing that this route will probably remain suspended until Australia lifts the ban on foreign nationals/hotel quarantine?
BA have come up cheapest by some margin at an eye-watering €6.5k for two in J to SYD. Ouch.
That being said, as is often the problem these days, there's booking a flight and then there's actually sitting in your seat and taking off. Am I right in fearing that this route will probably remain suspended until Australia lifts the ban on foreign nationals/hotel quarantine?
#2
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,261
There is absolutely no way of knowing. Will there be a fourth or fifth wave in Europe? Will Australia remain functionally closed? If not, how many seats per week? How long will the quarantine last? Will it be shorter for those who vaccinate or test out?
These are all issues which suggest that you look at this in October at the earliest. Tickets are, of course, expensive right now because there are few passengers permitted in and thus aircraft largely empty (of passengers, but not freight).
Don't forget that if you book and the flight later goes, but you do not wish to travel because the restrictions are too great, you have then made an interest-free loan to BA against some other trip which might have been better on another carrier.
These are all issues which suggest that you look at this in October at the earliest. Tickets are, of course, expensive right now because there are few passengers permitted in and thus aircraft largely empty (of passengers, but not freight).
Don't forget that if you book and the flight later goes, but you do not wish to travel because the restrictions are too great, you have then made an interest-free loan to BA against some other trip which might have been better on another carrier.
#4
Original Poster
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: LCY/DXB/MCY
Programs: BA Silver / SQ Sol PPS / KE & EK Nobody!
Posts: 398
There is absolutely no way of knowing. Will there be a fourth or fifth wave in Europe? Will Australia remain functionally closed? If not, how many seats per week? How long will the quarantine last? Will it be shorter for those who vaccinate or test out?
These are all issues which suggest that you look at this in October at the earliest. Tickets are, of course, expensive right now because there are few passengers permitted in and thus aircraft largely empty (of passengers, but not freight).
Don't forget that if you book and the flight later goes, but you do not wish to travel because the restrictions are too great, you have then made an interest-free loan to BA against some other trip which might have been better on another carrier.
These are all issues which suggest that you look at this in October at the earliest. Tickets are, of course, expensive right now because there are few passengers permitted in and thus aircraft largely empty (of passengers, but not freight).
Don't forget that if you book and the flight later goes, but you do not wish to travel because the restrictions are too great, you have then made an interest-free loan to BA against some other trip which might have been better on another carrier.
#7
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: YYZ
Programs: Hilton Gold Mariott Gold Aeroplan E25K SAS Gold NEXUS
Posts: 1,310
I booked with points, in theory if everyone is vaccinated by then (might be even though slow right now) shouldn't really be a good reason not to open up. 50/50 for Christmas in my view.
#8
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: South Glos, UK
Programs: BAEC Silver/OW Sapphire
Posts: 1,173
A lot in the Aussie media in the last 24 hours saying how inept the government has been in ordering the vaccine. Earlier promise of majority vaccinated by October seems to be highly unlikely and as others have said, 4th and possibly 5th waves elsewhere in the world will delay international borders opening even further. I’m booked to go in January but realistically I don’t expect to be going now.
#9
Original Poster
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: LCY/DXB/MCY
Programs: BA Silver / SQ Sol PPS / KE & EK Nobody!
Posts: 398
A lot in the Aussie media in the last 24 hours saying how inept the government has been in ordering the vaccine. Earlier promise of majority vaccinated by October seems to be highly unlikely and as others have said, 4th and possibly 5th waves elsewhere in the world will delay international borders opening even further. I’m booked to go in January but realistically I don’t expect to be going now.
#10
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: LON
Programs: BAEC
Posts: 4,020
Just book a cheap hostel or car hire for one day at some random point during your stay. You don't need to have the car or accommodation booked for the entire duration of your stay. You should be able to find something for a few tens of £s. And you don't need to use it at all during your stay. Booking via BA Holidays with car hire or accommodation is a means to book the flight with a small deposit that you need to firm up 3 weeks from departure.
#11
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: BER
Programs: BA GGL, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,862
Just book a cheap hostel or car hire for one day at some random point during your stay. You don't need to have the car or accommodation booked for the entire duration of your stay. You should be able to find something for a few tens of £s. And you don't need to use it at all during your stay. Booking via BA Holidays with car hire or accommodation is a means to book the flight with a small deposit that you need to firm up 3 weeks from departure.
#12
Join Date: Feb 2020
Programs: British Airways Executive Club Gold, Marriott Bonvoy Titanium Elite, Hilton Diamond, IHG Diamond Amb
Posts: 1,799
I reckon you have a 10% or less chance of entering Australia this Christmas for a leisure trip. So it depends how much you care about giving some BA some interest free liquidity.
#14
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 44,981
Well, looks like your guesses truly are as good as mine. My gut tells me that they'll live up to their reputation of being the world's most cautious country (bar the North Koreans...) and keep them shut right through until '22. I'd book with car hire/hotel, but I really don't need one whatsoever...
Not sure what the need to be derogatory is with terms like "Emperor' or comparison to N Korea
#15
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 509
and if you’re looking at saving some cash - consider a completely unrelated car hire.
I booked Miami for this summer and flight only was around £1000pp in business. I didn’t want a car on my trip and including a single day to the booking added around £80 but did technically make it a “holiday”.
After playing around for a bit I found that you need 6 days hire to really trigger any “holiday” discount so found Rhodes (Greece) was the cheapest option and adding 6 days hire for November reduced the overall cost by about £50pp.
Interestingly, 5 days hire added £40pp but six days certainly triggered the big discounts.
I booked Miami for this summer and flight only was around £1000pp in business. I didn’t want a car on my trip and including a single day to the booking added around £80 but did technically make it a “holiday”.
After playing around for a bit I found that you need 6 days hire to really trigger any “holiday” discount so found Rhodes (Greece) was the cheapest option and adding 6 days hire for November reduced the overall cost by about £50pp.
Interestingly, 5 days hire added £40pp but six days certainly triggered the big discounts.