Likelihood of BA to SYD Xmas 2021
 

Currently investigating fares VIE-SYD via for Xmas 2021 on the off-chance that Emperor Morrison decides fully vaccinated people can enter the country (and still quarantine for a fortnight - just at home would be nice!)

BA have come up cheapest by some margin at an eye-watering €6.5k for two in J to SYD. Ouch.

That being said, as is often the problem these days, there's booking a flight and then there's actually sitting in your seat and taking off. Am I right in fearing that this route will probably remain suspended until Australia lifts the ban on foreign nationals/hotel quarantine?

There is absolutely no way of knowing. Will there be a fourth or fifth wave in Europe? Will Australia remain functionally closed? If not, how many seats per week? How long will the quarantine last? Will it be shorter for those who vaccinate or test out?

These are all issues which suggest that you look at this in October at the earliest. Tickets are, of course, expensive right now because there are few passengers permitted in and thus aircraft largely empty (of passengers, but not freight).

Don't forget that if you book and the flight later goes, but you do not wish to travel because the restrictions are too great, you have then made an interest-free loan to BA against some other trip which might have been better on another carrier.

I'd say your chances are < 50%.

This is my general thinking - I'm not too fussed about having the voucher tied up in BA as we'd simply use that money to fly elsewhere. I'm with @Mixbury in being fairly pessimistic that this would go ahead. That being said, we could sink the voucher into a fortnight or so somewhere warm elsewhere that (hopefully) BA will be flying by then, or somewhere like HKG/SIN where both Australians/EU citizens may be able to travel quarantine-free. Completely agree that it's too early to say, but I'm scared prices will only rise as pent-up demand returns?

Add car hire and only put a deposit down

there’s a thought!

I booked with points, in theory if everyone is vaccinated by then (might be even though slow right now) shouldn't really be a good reason not to open up. 50/50 for Christmas in my view.

A lot in the Aussie media in the last 24 hours saying how inept the government has been in ordering the vaccine. Earlier promise of majority vaccinated by October seems to be highly unlikely and as others have said, 4th and possibly 5th waves elsewhere in the world will delay international borders opening even further. I’m booked to go in January but realistically I don’t expect to be going now.

Well, looks like your guesses truly are as good as mine. My gut tells me that they'll live up to their reputation of being the world's most cautious country (bar the North Koreans...) and keep them shut right through until '22. I'd book with car hire/hotel, but I really don't need one whatsoever...

Just book a cheap hostel or car hire for one day at some random point during your stay. You don't need to have the car or accommodation booked for the entire duration of your stay. You should be able to find something for a few tens of £s. And you don't need to use it at all during your stay. Booking via BA Holidays with car hire or accommodation is a means to book the flight with a small deposit that you need to firm up 3 weeks from departure.

sounds like a good tip. is this possible via the regular call center? or do I have to call BA holidays to make that booking (im planning SYD/MEL) for Easter break 2022

I reckon you have a 10% or less chance of entering Australia this Christmas for a leisure trip. So it depends how much you care about giving some BA some interest free liquidity.

Perhaps a general “what’s the probability” thread might be useful.

Anything beyond a few weeks seems to be a lottery or unknown at least.

Better than having lots of lockdowns - things are pretty much normal here ; I would be surprised if it is possible to visit Australia as soon as December and would not tie any money up in a booking at this time

Not sure what the need to be derogatory is with terms like "Emperor' or comparison to N Korea

and if you’re looking at saving some cash - consider a completely unrelated car hire.

I booked Miami for this summer and flight only was around £1000pp in business. I didn’t want a car on my trip and including a single day to the booking added around £80 but did technically make it a “holiday”.

After playing around for a bit I found that you need 6 days hire to really trigger any “holiday” discount so found Rhodes (Greece) was the cheapest option and adding 6 days hire for November reduced the overall cost by about £50pp.

Interestingly, 5 days hire added £40pp but six days certainly triggered the big discounts.