stevie

I am planning to start travelling in Q4 - but I think there is about a 20% chance of that happening.

Duck1981

Note to myself - no one has big hopes at the moment but everybody can’t wait to travel so time to buy some American shares and leverage on the sentiment

[please follow me and we will be the second reddit and we’ll squeeze the shorties]

just kidding

Scots_Al

Good point about hot-desking. We were already almost 100% hot-desking before COVID, and had undergone a programme of ‘densification’.

It’s hard to see us going back to that any time soon - though that leaves us with a lot more people than desks. Home working is here to stay in significant proportions for us I think.

13901

The end of hot desking and open-space offices might be the one good thing to be brought by the pandemic.

Agent69

The boss of Ryanair is forecasting "a strong return" for European beach holidays this summer thanks to the Covid-19 vaccination programme.

Michael O'Leary said he expected travel restrictions to be dropped once high risk groups were inoculated, unleashing "pent up demand".


But then he would say that, wouldn't he

The Geek

Don't think it will be a complete write off for the leisure traveler, but the game has certainly changed for us and gets more difficult to play as time has gone on.

I think it's going to be worse than 2020. Governments change the rules at the drop of a hat, so it's been a lottery since July on what you book actually going ahead. We were lucky in 2020 because we can work from anywhere so the UK quarantines didn't matter. But now you need a 72hr PCR to get in most places now, and that's if they are letting you in / not insisting on quarantine which is a significant additional cost and logistical headache for any trip.

Whilst I don't see travel as a complete write off in 2021, I think you can write off any short breaks / trips for the year. I think even the 600tps needed for Silver will be somewhat of a challenge to achieve this year so I reckon BA will announce / adapt circa June.

GSTBD

I see things getting significantly worse before they get better. As countries vaccinate at uneven paces and get domestic covid rates down there will be strong arguments towards closing borders, especially as there is a “theoretical” risk that a country with low-vaccinated/high-covid prevalence will produce vaccine-evading mutant strains of the virus. I can see travel being effectively banned completely unless between 2 highly-vaccinated (and low Covid prevalence) countries. In essence I think the New Zealand model will catch on worldwide as nationalism grows. As more countries complete vaccination programmes travel will open up between them on bilateral terms.

If things go that way it will take maybe a couple of years until travel fully opens up as in 2019. The entire world needs to be vaccinated, and then needs to be repeatedly vaccinated annually with updated mutations of this virus. Only then will politicians allow travel to return in the way we became accustomed to.

The days of freely travelling the planet are for the foreseeable, finished. This is unless populations start demanding freedoms to travel from political leaders, I doubt that will happen as the media have successfully scared the world into fearing Covid as if it is the plague, as if it is the ONLY issue worth worrying about and that both the economy and human rights should be abandoned in the fight against it.

It my personal opinion that the UK aviation industry will need government support over the next year or so in order to survive and make it through to a return of freer travel, which will come back slowly but eventually.

alex67500

There's a mixed bag of answers here regarding a comeback of business travel, and I think the most optimistic views are more wishful thinking than factual. But if we take a view that by 2023/2024 business travel could be back to 50-70% of what it was, it will make a huge difference, particularly for a carrier like BA.

​​​​My crystal ball tells me that European travel will be OK for July-October, followed by mildly restrictions next winter to avoid another wave, but I may be too pessimistic. Long-haul will depend on vaccine roll-outs. By the autumn it should be better but as I said I expect next winter to bring another slowdown.

If I'm right regarding business travel, there could be changes to the way status is earned at BA, or less Golds/GGL/CCR. But we're a long way from there.

GumshoeW12

Indeed. He says it’s possible traffic could return to 100% of 2019 levels by next March.

Sadly I don’t share his bullish optimism.

KSVVZ2015

I personally disagree with your numbers but agree with the overall point - no one knows. No one knows how general corporate businesses will react in the long term. I do think that there is going to be initially a big difference between service industries (particularly top tier professionals) and line corporate business travelers. I'm in a service industry and being F2F is critical to relationship development (and much of what we do). Most of that travel is TATL (and with a US PP current restrictions on entry are not an issue). We anticipate a gangbusters late Q3-Q4 2021 in terms of client meeting travel to the US (and probably Canada). Some of the work that I do in EMs however may be remote for longer. But even now, our policy does not prevent me from traveling if I want to (and legally can).

fruitcage

I mis-read "bullish" for a similar but more vulgar word first time, but I agree either way....

Confus

I’m pessimistic about 2021. There will be some pent-up demand, sure, but a lot of people will remain cautious for a while even if borders do start reopening (itself not a certainty). Captain Tom catching covid on his freebie holiday won’t help consumer confidence either.

Cap'n Benj

What percentage of overall business travel make up your kind of work?

I think one of the other issues with service travel will be no one to see the other end. There is no chance my team will be having the casual, twice a yearish F2F meetings with our vendors as - A. My team won’t all be in the office at the same time and B. It’s been clearly proven they’re not necessary, with shorter more frequent, virtual meetings being a better use of time.

Its obviously a huge YMMV situation, every position will be different, it’s hard to imagine a situation where huge numbers of trips will now be deemed unnecessary though, by those who partook them, those who hosted them and most importantly those who bean counted them.

From where I’m sitting, as someone who does zero business travel but used to receive a lot, I think 50% is a reasonable assumption

Misco60

Of course. At the moment almost everyone is working from home so it isn't an issue, but I have no doubt that when the pandemic panic is over many companies will realise that they can operate just as effectively with far fewer face-to-face meetings and fewer staff in the office. I believe this will be looked back on as a sea change in the way that businesses operate.

The Muffin Man

I think the chance is approx 50%....it’s either going to happen or it’s not.

my stance is to book with flexibility and cross fingers. I’ve got ANU booked for late August and LAS booked for October.

wish me luck, and likewise, all the best for all your plans!