Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > British Airways | Executive Club
Reload this Page >

Is 2021 a write-off as far as international travel is concerned?

Is 2021 a write-off as far as international travel is concerned?

Old Jan 31, 21, 8:00 pm
  #1  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 267
Is 2021 a write-off as far as international travel is concerned?

Is 2021 a write-off for international travel?

What’s the likelihood of BA extending status by another six to 12 months? Or is BA’s “investment” to retain status-pax in 2020 by extending status a wasted endeavour?
TheRealBabushka is offline  
Old Jan 31, 21, 8:52 pm
  #2  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Confirmed
Programs: Have
Posts: 989
Write-off? We don't know yet. But some say as vaccination in Europe/America goes on, there is a chance that global cases will start to drop soon. If cases drop, and a vaccination recognition scheme works, then it makes sense to restart global travel. Zoom/teleworking has been throughly tested for the first time in the history, so whether business travel is essential becomes a question.

I still see leisure travel coming back. People are more aware of their own wellbeing - and how confined at home sucks. With resources they will escape.

Extending status does not cost too much when flights are not operating, lounges closed, because status customers have no chance to utilise their benefits. So why not send out a gesture to them?
SKRan is offline  
Old Jan 31, 21, 9:23 pm
  #3  
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 419
Crystal ball territory...I see intra-continental travel like this year because we can't afford to not open up, but not serious amounts of travel to NA or Asia or anything like that.
James91 is offline  
Old Jan 31, 21, 11:14 pm
  #4  
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Programs: BA GGL, TK Elite
Posts: 2,795
I am mildly optimistic: Lockdown is already bringing infection numbers down. Vaccination will soon reduce the numbers further. As we go into spring, the virus will naturally be hampered, similar to what we have seen last year.

As some countries will re-open, others won't, leading to travel options that will improve but not yet return to anywhere near their 2019 level.

My personal strategy for 2021 is simplicity (no complex trips involving multiple countries) and flexibility (booking with short notice to what is open). Both to avoid rapidly changing regulations.

As for business travel, I think that will stay on video link for 2021, and not sure it'll ever have a meaningful come back.
Fritz, Athlete95, dadio77 and 3 others like this.
LCY8737 is offline  
Old Jan 31, 21, 11:27 pm
  #5  
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Programs: BAEC Gold/GGL, IHG Spire
Posts: 946
Re business travel - Zoom does have its’ limits and our firm have recognised that. We have travel budget just a matter of when not if....
Auto Enthusiast, DaveS and SxMan like this.
our_kid is offline  
Old Jan 31, 21, 11:30 pm
  #6  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 702
Originally Posted by our_kid View Post
Re business travel - Zoom does have its’ limits and our firm have recognised that. We have travel budget just a matter of when not if....
Same. Business travel was near non existent from March on last year except four rapid succession trips to Italy in September. There is a ton we need to do for work and client relationships. Pent up demand. Imagine nothing I’m Q1, maybe one trip of Spain drops their Brit ban. A bit more in Q2 and then Q3 and Q4 I expect to be heavy.

Zoom will remove no more than 5% of my travel in the long run.
our_kid and DaveS like this.
KSVVZ2015 is offline  
Old Feb 1, 21, 12:25 am
  #7  
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 3,746
The best course of action, in my view, is to expect nothing and be happy if something actually happens. The two main blockers to flying are the "Stay at home" order issued by the government and the bans to entry from the UK due to the Kent mutation. The first might be lifted sooner than the latter, despite all the rhetoric by some of the government's minister about a "great British summer" here (a slogan that makes me cringe but OT).

With regards to status, BA has already extended the thresholds by one year; mine, if I understand correctly, lapses in 2022. The main issue, for me, is gaining the Tier Points needed to maintain it - but to be honest with you, there are more pressing matters.
13901 is offline  
Old Feb 1, 21, 1:05 am
  #8  
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 51
My husband has annual leave (allocated which he can't change) at the end of May and in early September. As someone who gets almost as much joy out of planning travel, as I do travelling, I'm trying to remain optimistic about the possibilities of travel. We have a 241 that, whilst it doesn't expire yet, I'd obviously like to use. His May leave I'm imagining we'll probably have to stay in the UK but optimistically hoping for somewhere/anywhere short haul Europe, depending on Covid. If it's not sensible/allowed to travel then, then we won't. By September we both should have had both vaccines....I'm really hoping to use the 241 and go somewhere longhaul. Although don't mind where really! I'll see what options are available to travel J, and play it by ear. As someone who works in the theatre industry (and loves it) but has been unable to work for a year because of restrictions, and who's hobby is travelling, the last year has been really depressing. Hoping no one trolls me for even THINKING about travel at the moment, as it's one of the few things keeping me sane!
IKDR is offline  
Old Feb 1, 21, 1:24 am
  #9  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Kennington
Programs: BAEC Gold
Posts: 1,960
Originally Posted by our_kid View Post
Re business travel - Zoom does have its’ limits and our firm have recognised that.
Online meetings certainly do have their limits, but even before the pandemic the company I worked for, a major UK bank, was actively reducing its office footprint in the City, getting staff to work from home 3 days a week and aiming to hold almost all meetings online (or, more often, by simple conference call).

After some initial pushback from staff and some technical problems, the project was a huge success. Staff eventually loved not having to commute and business travel was down by more than half, with a target of reducing it by 80%. (Most of our business travel was for internal meetings at locations across the UK, Europe and the world.) Office buildings were sold, or leases allowed to expire, and the remaining properties were refurbished to an extremely high standard for hot-desking. The savings were immense.

This is probably the future, at least in the world's great business centres.
Misco60 is offline  
Old Feb 1, 21, 1:49 am
  #10  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 107
Politicians remind me of sitting on a plane being told we don’t know when we will take off - more info in half an hour. Then 3 hours later take-off which was known about before we got on the plane

The increasing noise that global Vaccination is required to prevent more dangerous and vax resistant strains appearing suggest a timeline the politicians don’t want to even hint at.

I’ve written this year off now.
Swissroll is offline  
Old Feb 1, 21, 1:50 am
  #11  
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Programs: BA GGL, TK Elite
Posts: 2,795
Originally Posted by Misco60 View Post
Online meetings certainly do have their limits, but even before the pandemic the company I worked for, a major UK bank, was actively reducing its office footprint in the City, getting staff to work from home 3 days a week and aiming to hold almost all meetings online (or, more often, by simple conference call).

After some initial pushback from staff and some technical problems, the project was a huge success. Staff eventually loved not having to commute and business travel was down by more than half, with a target of reducing it by 80%. (Most of our business travel was for internal meetings at locations across the UK, Europe and the world.) Office buildings were sold, or leases allowed to expire, and the remaining properties were refurbished to an extremely high standard for hot-desking. The savings were immense.

This is probably the future, at least in the world's great business centres.
That is pretty much what I have seen. A year of proving that things can be done remotely has effectively taken away the justification for business travel. Of course there will always be high profile clients or circumstances where in person presence is required, but a lot of the old justifications no longer apply. And even a lot of the high profile clients have made clear that they prefer video conferences.
LCY8737 is offline  
Old Feb 1, 21, 1:55 am
  #12  
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: London
Programs: BAEC Gold, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 741
I am hoping for casual travel to the States around the end of summer and maybe for Xmas in NYC with my wife; and potentially a trip to DXB or Majorca.

Don’t believe there’s an Easter travel season this year.

In terms of Business travel I’ll stay ground until end of 21 so yes please extend status until 2023 (my bet is they’ll do).
Duck1981 is offline  
Old Feb 1, 21, 1:57 am
  #13  
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Barcelona, London, on a plane
Programs: BA Gold, TK E+, IB+, VS FC, Hyatt Globalist, MR Plat Prem, IHG Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 9,187
2021 is a write-off. Until there is firm data suggesting that vaccinated people cannot carry COVID into un-vaccinated populations, countries won't re-open to tourists unless they are also well advanced with vaccination.

BA will do everything it can to avoid extending status, and then it will...
craigthemif is offline  
Old Feb 1, 21, 2:06 am
  #14  
gms
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: South East, UK
Programs: BA Gold / GfL, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,223
Originally Posted by Misco60 View Post
Online meetings certainly do have their limits, but even before the pandemic the company I worked for, a major UK bank, was actively reducing its office footprint in the City, getting staff to work from home 3 days a week and aiming to hold almost all meetings online (or, more often, by simple conference call).

After some initial pushback from staff and some technical problems, the project was a huge success. Staff eventually loved not having to commute and business travel was down by more than half, with a target of reducing it by 80%. (Most of our business travel was for internal meetings at locations across the UK, Europe and the world.) Office buildings were sold, or leases allowed to expire, and the remaining properties were refurbished to an extremely high standard for hot-desking. The savings were immense.

This is probably the future, at least in the world's great business centres.
While I agree with most of what you say, I can see a lot of businesses questioning the move to hot-desking in the short to medium term. Even with strict cleaning processes, you are immediately increasing the risk of spreading infections. When my office reopened last year we were explicitly banned from sharing desks (alongside a range of other measures). Also, worth considering that commercial landlords will be coming under immense pressure to reduce rents. So companies can make savings in other ways while retaining existing office footprints.

In my company, I can see a return to travel coming later this year, once the situation improves. I am sure business travel will be reduced compared to the past, but there are simply some things that are difficult to do virtually.
Auto Enthusiast likes this.
gms is offline  
Old Feb 1, 21, 2:11 am
  #15  
gms
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: South East, UK
Programs: BA Gold / GfL, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,223
Originally Posted by craigthemif View Post
2021 is a write-off. Until there is firm data suggesting that vaccinated people cannot carry COVID into un-vaccinated populations, countries won't re-open to tourists unless they are also well advanced with vaccination.
I disagree that "2021 is a write-off". Yes, countries that are not able to vaccinate rapidly probably will be out-of-bounds (also because the UK won't want to risk importing new strains), However, I can see more advanced (in terms of vaccine roll-out) countries starting to reopen by this summer once they have vaccinated the most vulnerable and have agreed on other measures to minimise the risk (e.g. testing before travel, etc). Of course, a significant mutation could change everything.
gms is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Search Engine: