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BA fleet developments: unconfirmed updates, speculation, and general discussion

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BA fleet developments: unconfirmed updates, speculation, and general discussion

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Old Feb 26, 2021, 7:25 am
  #271  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: London
Programs: BA GGL / GfL
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Originally Posted by KARFA
where would you put the 777X in to that? Do you think BA will even want it in the end?
I think BA will take them, but the delay until 2024 for initial deliveries will allow BA walk away without any penalties should the travel market not recover in a fashion or speed which they would hope for. The planned layout (pre-covid) of 8/65/46/206 would be ideal for key U.S. / South Africa / Asia routes given the higher Y configuration (so think Miami / L.A. / San Fran / Cape Town / Dubai / Hong Kong) vs the premium heavy B77W and the B787 seems to suit the slightly thinner routes.

Pilot37
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Old Feb 26, 2021, 7:35 am
  #272  
 
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Originally Posted by KARFA
where would you put the 777X in to that? Do you think BA will even want it in the end?
I believe they will. 2024 will be just the right time when long haul markets are recovered. How I see it is this:

Mid-J 747 —> A350-1000
High-J 747 —> 77W (New Club Suite Config)
77W (Old Config) + Expansion —> 777X
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Old Feb 26, 2021, 7:40 am
  #273  
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
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Originally Posted by 13901
There's three things I consider unlikely to see in my lifetime: Torino FC winning the Serie A, peace in the Middle East and Boeing Charleston working decently. I mean, I'm hopeful but...



As much as I subscribe to the Plastic Pig moniker, the 788 and 789 have matured somewhat and are decent planes. BA, I believe, have gotten round using them properly. It's true, there's 18 more options on the -1000 but... it's still quite a large plane, with 320-something seats. If they were to replace the 77Es 1:1 BA would jump from the low 200 seaters of the 788 and 789 to 300 with nothing in the middle. That 78X could be a nice fit in the middle.



By the time it arrives (now they're saying 2023 for the launch customers, make it 2024-25 for BA) they'll need it.
sigh Boeing SC. I guess we can only hope. And they’re now exclusively there from March! I’m doubtful too many engineers in Seattle would want to move to Charleston. Here’s to hope anyway!
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Old Feb 26, 2021, 7:47 am
  #274  
 
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Originally Posted by 13901
As much as I subscribe to the Plastic Pig moniker, the 788 and 789 have matured somewhat and are decent planes. BA, I believe, have gotten round using them properly. It's true, there's 18 more options on the -1000 but... it's still quite a large plane, with 320-something seats. If they were to replace the 77Es 1:1 BA would jump from the low 200 seaters of the 788 and 789 to 300 with nothing in the middle. That 78X could be a nice fit in the middle
But not all 350s need to be in such a dense configuration. Theoretically, if they ordered the A359 and made it 4 class, the capacity wouldn’t be too far off the current 4 class 772s.

Originally Posted by opus99
Honestly, if it goes to campaign I think Airbus will lose. This is BA looking to replace 777s, Boeing will price AGGRESSIVELY to a point that I’m not sure Airbus 350 cost base might allow it to meet. But they very well might! Who knows?

WW has said many times. Airbus build fantastic aircrafts but they’re too expensive.

OR at best a split between the two frames.

I’ve never seen the 787s issues as a hindrance on it sales and the order book shows. It’s a fantastic aircraft and probably the most optimised widebody on the market and it will only get better as new engine options come online etc.
Well we know BA likes Boeing for long-haul, but that was driven a lot by WW. Luis has worked at Iberia and will know the costs/benefits of the A350 group wide, so I’m sure he will have a lot to say.
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Old Feb 26, 2021, 9:34 am
  #275  
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 7,237
Originally Posted by BAeuro
But not all 350s need to be in such a dense configuration. Theoretically, if they ordered the A359 and made it 4 class, the capacity wouldn’t be too far off the current 4 class 772s.
The 359 hasn't won a lot of orders lately though and, although it has a great commonality with the 35K, it's a different model with some different parts and tooling. Never say never though, especially if they do a neo version (although times are a bit tight).
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Old Feb 26, 2021, 10:16 am
  #276  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 3,190
Originally Posted by 13901
There's three things I consider unlikely to see in my lifetime: Torino FC winning the Serie A, peace in the Middle East and Boeing Charleston working decently. I mean, I'm hopeful but...
...
Thanks for that, 13901! A mouthful of coffee just escaped my mouth in a most explosive manner!

rb211.
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Old Feb 26, 2021, 12:59 pm
  #277  
 
Join Date: Feb 2021
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BA have pulled off the LGWEDI route which makes sense I think, it seems a bit odd though that from 23/5 all the LGW short hauls are selling on ba.com, i know it’s almost certain that none will return to LGW until s22, if ever? But what I find interesting is why act early on the LGWEDI by axing it yet keep kicking the can down the road with the other LGW shorthauls?
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Old Feb 26, 2021, 4:22 pm
  #278  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
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Originally Posted by Speedbirdsouth
BA have pulled off the LGWEDI route which makes sense I think, it seems a bit odd though that from 23/5 all the LGW short hauls are selling on ba.com, i know it’s almost certain that none will return to LGW until s22, if ever? But what I find interesting is why act early on the LGWEDI by axing it yet keep kicking the can down the road with the other LGW shorthauls?
Welcome Speedbirdsouth to FT and to the BAEC forum in particular. I'm sure one of the fabulous Ambassadors will be along to provide an official welcome shortly!

I think there is an awful lot of uncertainty (SM) concerning which flights will be operating, from and to where, and by which planes, for the coming months. A couple of times BA has switched back and forth on several of these. The projections for when the other two LHR terminals will open have been ping-ponging around since the beginning of the year (well, since before then really.) The whole operations plan has a lot of moving parts, with many influencers. It's possible that things may firm up over the next couple of months (and the opposite is possible too!)

I don't have a good reason for this particular action, maybe others do. Or maybe there isn't one!

rb211.
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Old Feb 27, 2021, 5:40 am
  #279  
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
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Does anyone know if the A321 CEOs are going to come back this year or will they be sent off to retirement too?
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Old Feb 27, 2021, 5:44 am
  #280  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
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Originally Posted by Speedbirdsouth
BA have pulled off the LGWEDI route which makes sense I think, it seems a bit odd though that from 23/5 all the LGW short hauls are selling on ba.com, i know it’s almost certain that none will return to LGW until s22, if ever? But what I find interesting is why act early on the LGWEDI by axing it yet keep kicking the can down the road with the other LGW shorthauls?
There was much discussion on this when it was announced, I’d recommend reading the thread back. But in summary, LGWEDI is primarily point-to-point, of a kind that can effectively be served by LHR and LCY routes, but LGWGLA sees more connections over Gatwick so was kept so as not to lose this business.
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Old Feb 27, 2021, 6:20 am
  #281  
 
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Originally Posted by TheMan123
Does anyone know if the A321 CEOs are going to come back this year or will they be sent off to retirement too?
There are some showing in the Summer timetable - albeit only 4 frames will be needed.

I’m not sure what the longer term plan is.
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Old Mar 4, 2021, 11:25 am
  #282  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
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The MAD parked 380's seem to be coming into Heathrow for general maintenance on a rotating basis in order to keep them airworthy and flight ready. I'm hearing the DOH parked 380's are unlikely to come back into service any time soon if ever. I'm also hearing today from a reliable source within the airline that despite recent rumours of the A380 Club Suite refits, these may not go ahead due to the significant cost involved in refurbishing these aircraft. An overall final decision has yet to be made.
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Old Mar 4, 2021, 12:29 pm
  #283  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
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Originally Posted by 1Aturnleft
The MAD parked 380's seem to be coming into Heathrow for general maintenance on a rotating basis in order to keep them airworthy and flight ready. I'm hearing the DOH parked 380's are unlikely to come back into service any time soon if ever. I'm also hearing today from a reliable source within the airline that despite recent rumours of the A380 Club Suite refits, these may not go ahead due to the significant cost involved in refurbishing these aircraft. An overall final decision has yet to be made.
Not sure why BA would sign off on any A380 Club Suite refits as they were always slated to be the last aircraft to get them between 2023 / 2024 anyway - so signing off any approval on refurbishing them in the middle of a slum in air travel, which would represent an acceleration of their refit, would seem very strange! There are over half of the B777 fleet still to be refurbished and the older B772's have only 7 or 8yrs worth of flying left in them vs 15-20yrs for the A380 - so I think a dose of reality on what is sensible when it comes to the A380 fleet is probably worthwhile until we get past this awful period for the industry.

Pilot37
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Old Mar 5, 2021, 3:02 am
  #284  
 
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Originally Posted by Pilot37
Not sure why BA would sign off on any A380 Club Suite refits as they were always slated to be the last aircraft to get them between 2023 / 2024 anyway - so signing off any approval on refurbishing them in the middle of a slum in air travel, which would represent an acceleration of their refit, would seem very strange! There are over half of the B777 fleet still to be refurbished and the older B772's have only 7 or 8yrs worth of flying left in them vs 15-20yrs for the A380 - so I think a dose of reality on what is sensible when it comes to the A380 fleet is probably worthwhile until we get past this awful period for the industry.

Pilot37
I wonder how many A380s will actually return to service post COVID? EK will have the largest fleet, by far, around 100 strong, ANA seem to have a niche for their 3 Hawaii busses. Lufthansa, Air France, Thai, Malaysia, Qatar, Ethiad have already confirmed retirement or are highly unlikely to return them to service.

The 6 refurbished Qantas and around 10-15 at Singapore will likely see some service. China Southern seem to be using some of their 6 A380 fleet through Covid. Korean Airlines are in the process of buying Asiana, which would give a combined fleet of 16, so might have the passenger flows to support some A380s over the pacific and to Europe. Even if BA keep all 12 the likely active fleet in 2023 is no more than 45 outside the EK fleet. It's fortunate that EK operate RR and Engine Alliance versions which should keep the engine maintenance costs under control. History shows that small fleets are difficult to operate, maintain. The large premium cabins and small cargo capability of the A380 will also work against it in the recovery phase.
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Old Mar 5, 2021, 4:02 am
  #285  
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: London, UK
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Originally Posted by BrianDromey
The 6 refurbished Qantas and around 10-15 at Singapore will likely see some service. China Southern seem to be using some of their 6 A380 fleet through Covid. Korean Airlines are in the process of buying Asiana, which would give a combined fleet of 16, so might have the passenger flows to support some A380s over the pacific and to Europe. Even if BA keep all 12 the likely active fleet in 2023 is no more than 45 outside the EK fleet. It's fortunate that EK operate RR and Engine Alliance versions which should keep the engine maintenance costs under control. History shows that small fleets are difficult to operate, maintain. The large premium cabins and small cargo capability of the A380 will also work against it in the recovery phase.
I think it was Paul Clark (author of Buying the Big Jets) who I heard say that a fleet of less than 10 is never going to be efficient, both in terms of maintenance and crewing costs.
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