opus99

I’m also looking to see when the 777-200ER campaign kicks off. Many of G-VIIx fleet are heading to 25 years now. It will be a very interesting campaign for Boeing and Airbus. It will also be brutally competitive

RB211

Where's Van Der Post when you need him?

rb211.

13901

I remember from a capital markets day of some years ago that the 77Es would be 30/35 by the time they're replaced, so I'd say late 2020s/early 2030s...

opus99

I remember that. I think they actually said the replacement starts in 2025 but about 8 777s will still be operating in the 2030s. I certainly hope BA will still be operating 30 year old 777s

choosethedrew

Unless you have a love of being slowly desiccated whilst your ear drums take a battering, I am assuming this is an extreme dose of sarcasm.

opus99

Error! Apologies. I meant to say I hope they WONT be operating 777s into their 30s

Confus

You’re two years too late... the new 777 order made in 2019 was a competition between Boeing and Airbus (for more A351s) and was intended to replace the earliest 777s.

opus99

yeah. 4. 777s. There are still 40 more to go

oneworldglobetrotter

Actually as outlined by WW at the time, the 2019 777-9 order was intended to replace the 747’s and for growth opportunities. He said that the reason he didn’t order additional A351s was principally a size issue with a higher capacity on the 777-9s.

13901

I think the competition for the G-VIIx and G-YMMx frames is still to be had although, if I were a betting man, I think that the 787-10 (with crew bunks) might emerge victorious. With a few notable exceptions (PVG, BKK, EZE), Ante-Covid the 77Es operated mostly routes to the Middle East, Africa and the US. All routes that a 78X can cover without incurring in too much penalty weight-wise. The A350-1000 is too much of a plane for some of those routes and the A350-900, though in IAG, is not in BA so that might skew things.

The only caveats I can think of are a neo version of the 350 (been rumoured a lot in the past), Boeing's quality standards out of Charleston (it seems that the 78Xs in BA's fleet are riddled with defects, with a couple AOG already, and a friend who works on the 78X in Etihad said defined quality over at Charleston as "Soviet") and, last but not least, the 787 itself. They'd need to replace a fairly robust, well-known and not demanding aircraft, the 77E: the 787 is more complicated and "needy" which may be tricky in some parts of the world such as the Caribbean flyspecks that Gatwick flies to. If memory doesn't deceive me, if a 787 has the APU unserviceable, you need three Ground Power Units to start it up, which was a biggie in places like Luanda which the 787 served briefly (as there weren't three GPUs!). Fly 787s out of LGW, without a hangar there, to places like Kingston or St. Lucia... and sooner or later you'll have a a problem that on the 777 would only have meant a log entry and an ADD... but with the Dreamliner it's going to be a long-term AOG.

But, on the other hand... Engineers or Ops people don't choose planes. IAG does.

opus99

Exactly what I was thinking (bar the 787 issues) the -10 is a perfect replacement. If BA does go down that route then they might go for GE this time around? I’m also expecting that the slightly updated 787 MTOW boost will be available by then slightly extending the range of the -10. Well, after all these years we can only hope the current quality controls will solve this (Boeing is going very deep into the supply chain this time around). No 787s have been delivered since October. They’re doing major engineering analysis. Let’s see anyway!

BAeuro

I personally feel the A350 will win the 772 replacement game.

It is a robust aircraft with great cargo capacity and can easily have a dense configuration (great for LGW). BA have been really impressed with it and they haven’t experienced many (if any) delays. The commonality aspect is a big bonus too, with IB having a solid 350 fleet too.

The 787 is of poor quality and the delays on the -10 have been utterly awful. Plus they have options on the A350 but not on the 787.

KARFA

where would you put the 777X in to that? Do you think BA will even want it in the end?

13901

There's three things I consider unlikely to see in my lifetime: Torino FC winning the Serie A, peace in the Middle East and Boeing Charleston working decently. I mean, I'm hopeful but...

As much as I subscribe to the Plastic Pig moniker, the 788 and 789 have matured somewhat and are decent planes. BA, I believe, have gotten round using them properly. It's true, there's 18 more options on the -1000 but... it's still quite a large plane, with 320-something seats. If they were to replace the 77Es 1:1 BA would jump from the low 200 seaters of the 788 and 789 to 300 with nothing in the middle. That 78X could be a nice fit in the middle.

By the time it arrives (now they're saying 2023 for the launch customers, make it 2024-25 for BA) they'll need it.

opus99

many valid points. Airlines love the 787 though even with all its issues (in the last 3 years it has gotten almost twice the number of orders compared to the 350). The 787-10 currently has more belly volume than an A359. -10 going as high as 13 pallets. Which is one pallet down from 300ER or 35K. Of course the 359 has higher tonnage.

I think BA would’ve let those options expire anyway. Simply because they’re rolls engines. If BA orders another tranch of 787s my guess is they would go with GE. Right now 787 and 777 form the backbone of BAs fleet.

Honestly, if it goes to campaign I think Airbus will lose. This is BA looking to replace 777s, Boeing will price AGGRESSIVELY to a point that I’m not sure Airbus 350 cost base might allow it to meet. But they very well might! Who knows?

WW has said many times. Airbus build fantastic aircrafts but they’re too expensive.

OR at best a split between the two frames.

I’ve never seen the 787s issues as a hindrance on it sales and the order book shows. It’s a fantastic aircraft and probably the most optimised widebody on the market and it will only get better as new engine options come online etc.

boeing created a new size of aircraft with the 787 family and I think the perfect size.

too bad they had to taint their brilliance with excessive greed sigh.