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Situation in the Middle East and possible implications for BA

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Situation in the Middle East and possible implications for BA

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Old Jan 7, 2020, 1:21 am
  #31  
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Originally Posted by navylad
It is an individual or a company that provides goods of services to another organisation on the basis of a contract.

in this context, it likely means someone who works for a private military company, often contracted by the US government to provide private security services. There are also terms security contractors or private military contractors.

They are often individual who are ex military, SF or close protection police.
I'm a little reluctant to wade into this discussion, but I think this definition is too narrow. A contractor can be any person or entity that provides services to the military. It's just as likely a company that is providing support services as it is a company providing security or other mercenary-like services. I don't have any first hand knowledge, but I imagine a military contractor might be responsible for constructing and maintaining facilities, providing certain "back office" support such as running food service or laundry facilities, or providing a myriad of other services that don't come close to a security or mercenary-like role.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 2:22 am
  #32  
 
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Originally Posted by charlesrhona
Like you I am also travelling to SYD via SIN on just over 2 weeks time. From Flightradar 24 BA are still overflying Iran. However SIA are diverting around Iran for their LHR - SIN flights.
After the close call with SQ351, I think they better pay attention to world events.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 2:37 am
  #33  
 
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Originally Posted by WLX
Looks like maybe they are avoiding it but also perhaps they don’t need to cross it anyway.

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flig...905Z/EGLL/WSSS
Originally Posted by alex67500
Actually if you look over the last 4 days it looks like they're actively avoiding both Ukraine (twice North, twice South) and Iran.

Originally Posted by charlesrhona
Not if you look at the BA15.
I had looked (I am booked on BA11) and for the past week or so in FR24, they had not crossed Iran airspace. However as charleshona also pointed out, BA15 does? Guess a B777 takes a different route to an A380?
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 2:44 am
  #34  
 
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Originally Posted by alvinlwh
I had looked (I am booked on BA11) and for the past week or so in FR24, they had not crossed Iran airspace. However as charleshona also pointed out, BA15 does? Guess a B777 takes a different route to an A380?
Maybe there's a range issue? That would be rather bad though. We can afford it with one type but not the other so let's fly straight...(in case it isn't clear, this is mostly sarcastic, but the question is there...)
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 11:01 am
  #35  
 
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How is avoidance of airspace decided? I know there are NOTAMs that are graded red, amber or yellow but Iran is currently amber so it would seem strange that some airlines, and even different flights by the same airline, would act differently.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 11:49 am
  #36  
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Originally Posted by choosethedrew
How is avoidance of airspace decided? I know there are NOTAMs that are graded red, amber or yellow but Iran is currently amber so it would seem strange that some airlines, and even different flights by the same airline, would act differently.
I expect airlines make commercial decisions based on a formula of risk appetite, fuel cost, government advice, reports from pilots, etc. Perhaps the fuel burn or cruising altitude of an aircraft is a factor.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 11:58 am
  #37  
 
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Originally Posted by UrbanLegend
Well BA277 LHR-HYD is now taking a detour. Last year's geopolitical problems had to avoid / fly below Pakistan and up the Persian Gulf.

Now it is going above Iran.

Jan 4

BA277 original route over Iran



Jan 5


BA277 Detour as of Jan 5
My last flight back from HYD maybe 18 months ago now saw us turning back from Pakistan airspace shortly after entering it and then routing round it, CSD spoke to everyone in Club as it meant we didn't have enough fuel to get back to LHR and would need to stop to fill up, in the end we stopped in Vienna.

No reason detailed reason was given, it was relayed to us as the instruction being to leave the airspace ASAP.

I'm off to Delhi, via Doha with QR in a few weeks so keeping half an eye on it.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 12:00 pm
  #38  
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Originally Posted by tuonopepper
My last flight back from HYD maybe 18 months ago now saw us turning back from Iranian airspace shortly after entering it and then routing round it, CSD spoke to everyone in Club as it meant we didn't have enough fuel to get back to LHR and would need to stop to fill up, in the end we stopped in Vienna.

No reason detailed reason was given, it was relayed to us as the instruction being to leave the airspace ASAP.
This seems like a sort of diplomatic muscle flexing. ‘We can do this to any BA flight we like, whenever we like’
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 12:15 pm
  #39  
 
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Originally Posted by WLX
This seems like a sort of diplomatic muscle flexing. ‘We can do this to any BA flight we like, whenever we like’
Quite possibly, I have no idea if the instruction came from Iranian ATC or from BA ops.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 12:34 pm
  #40  
 
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Originally Posted by choosethedrew
How is avoidance of airspace decided? I know there are NOTAMs that are graded red, amber or yellow but Iran is currently amber so it would seem strange that some airlines, and even different flights by the same airline, would act differently.
I think BA tends to be more cautious than some. For example, BA had avoided Ukraine airspace for a month before MH17, with a SQ close behind it. I guess they had learnt their lesson after BA149.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 12:35 pm
  #41  
 
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Originally Posted by navylad
It is an individual or a company that provides goods of services to another organisation on the basis of a contract.

in this context, it likely means someone who works for a private military company, often contracted by the US government to provide private security services. There are also terms security contractors or private military contractors.

They are often individual who are ex military, SF or close protection police.
these guys where private military contractors "working for the state department" he told me, mostly ex special forces

Last edited by ClubflyerLondon; Jan 7, 2020 at 12:37 pm Reason: additional info
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 12:40 pm
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by tuonopepper
Quite possibly, I have no idea if the instruction came from Iranian ATC or from BA ops.
Iran is now threatening a "270" in response to Trump's "52". Hopefully no one pulls a "290" again from whichever side.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 1:34 pm
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by UrbanLegend
Well BA277 LHR-HYD is now taking a detour. Last year's geopolitical problems had to avoid / fly below Pakistan and up the Persian Gulf.

Now it is going above Iran.

Jan 4

BA277 original route over Iran



Jan 5


BA277 Detour as of Jan 5
The flights to Hyderabad and Chennai flew almost directly over Tehran today, in fact not long ago.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 2:40 pm
  #44  
 
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Originally Posted by choosethedrew
How is avoidance of airspace decided? I know there are NOTAMs that are graded red, amber or yellow but Iran is currently amber so it would seem strange that some airlines, and even different flights by the same airline, would act differently.
The airlines can also get feedback from the insurance companies that cover them for hull loss.

The airlines can be told that flying too near certain areas of conflict may raise their premiums or even result (Ukraine) in cancellation of their insurance coverage.

This obviously influences operational patterns.

All he best.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 5:03 pm
  #45  
 
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Well, you will see some major changes now, the Iranians have launched missles into Iraq, aimed at US forces.

Expect the airspace to be busy with incoming US response!
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