IAG Q2 Results
Jul 29, 2016, 4:02 am
#16
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 6,349
More worrying is things like punctuality target missed with more than 25% of flights late and satisfaction target missed by some distance.
When the economic environment is tough these are the things that you can still be delivering on.
Jul 30, 2016, 12:16 am
#19
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: UK
Programs: BA, U2+, SK, AF/KL, IHG, Hilton, others gathering dust...
Posts: 2,552
A drop in full year profit forecast of EUR 500-700m in the space of 3 months is pretty significant, though IAG will still make a substantial profit. They knew it was coming, hence the rush in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote to say profits would drop, without saying by how much. Some of it is FX of course, but still not pretty and quite a few metrics going in the wrong direction. Looks like the market thinks it has already priced in that drop.
Indeed, the 74% figure in isolation tells very little, it would have some meaning with a comparison to what it looked like for Q3 2015 at the same time last year.
Bits of it are funny (I used to do this stuff for a living).
"74% of forecast Q3 revenue is already booked" - well, erm, great but last time I looked it was 29th July! That means a third of Q3 has already gone.
This means that only (74% - 33%) 41% of expected August and September revenue has already been booked, which given that August is mainly holiday traffic and you would expect that to be booked long ago doesn't say much.
"74% of forecast Q3 revenue is already booked" - well, erm, great but last time I looked it was 29th July! That means a third of Q3 has already gone.
This means that only (74% - 33%) 41% of expected August and September revenue has already been booked, which given that August is mainly holiday traffic and you would expect that to be booked long ago doesn't say much.
Jul 30, 2016, 12:41 am
#20
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 6,349
Bits of it are funny (I used to do this stuff for a living).
"74% of forecast Q3 revenue is already booked" - well, erm, great but last time I looked it was 29th July! That means a third of Q3 has already gone.
This means that only (74% - 33%) 41% of expected August and September revenue has already been booked, which given that August is mainly holiday traffic and you would expect that to be booked long ago doesn't say much.
"74% of forecast Q3 revenue is already booked" - well, erm, great but last time I looked it was 29th July! That means a third of Q3 has already gone.
This means that only (74% - 33%) 41% of expected August and September revenue has already been booked, which given that August is mainly holiday traffic and you would expect that to be booked long ago doesn't say much.
July passes so the expected £5m is banked. That means £6.1m is left as 'booked' from the remaining 2 months expected revenue of £10m.
£6.1m out of £10m = 61%, not 41%.
Jul 30, 2016, 1:06 am
#21
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Moscow / Aylesbury / Leeds
Programs: BA-GGL, SU-G Agean, G,, Hhonours D, Starwood G, IHG G,
Posts: 1,531
We can pick the bones all day long on this, but key to me is revenues down across the board.
You can only address the bottom line for so long before the only thing left is the top line. I see this as potentially positive. As the global economy is having a few hiccups BA will need to up the ante to grow the top line, or maintain it. So could be time for a few improvements.
Parallels new job, they cleaned up bottom line, made savings for a few years, now know maybe 2 years of cleaning up left or they will cut staff and shrink, so I get to grow the top line and make the service investments
You can only address the bottom line for so long before the only thing left is the top line. I see this as potentially positive. As the global economy is having a few hiccups BA will need to up the ante to grow the top line, or maintain it. So could be time for a few improvements.
Parallels new job, they cleaned up bottom line, made savings for a few years, now know maybe 2 years of cleaning up left or they will cut staff and shrink, so I get to grow the top line and make the service investments
Jul 30, 2016, 2:02 am
#22
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: UK
Programs: BA, U2+, SK, AF/KL, IHG, Hilton, others gathering dust...
Posts: 2,552
We can pick the bones all day long on this, but key to me is revenues down across the board.
You can only address the bottom line for so long before the only thing left is the top line. I see this as potentially positive. As the global economy is having a few hiccups BA will need to up the ante to grow the top line, or maintain it. So could be time for a few improvements.
You can only address the bottom line for so long before the only thing left is the top line. I see this as potentially positive. As the global economy is having a few hiccups BA will need to up the ante to grow the top line, or maintain it. So could be time for a few improvements.
IAG's RASK is suffering most in long haul (both front and back of the bus), and one will assume BA is the major driver of that. I suspect focus on cost over top line will be the case for some time to come, whether they leave it too late to invest remains to be seen. As always with BA, much will depend on the TATL business.