I fly MIA/JFK-EZE two or three times a year, and every time the flights are either full or nearly full. I've never taken the DFW-EZE flight but I understand it's also nearly always full.

I don't know how any business dependent on anything that has to transit the strait can plan anything when "It's open!" to "We start bombing Tuesday!" is every ten minutes.

While not long-haul, AA is cutting PHX-TIJ (Tijuana). Is this due to the high fuel prices?

This doesn't seem like the kind of route you would cut if it were doing well considering it is fairly short. Of course, every route has a higher bar to clear with the current fuel prices and this has a reasonable alternative in SAN.

I would say ULH flights to Oceania other than SYD will likely be cut. Somewhat related, FJ is ending NAN-DFW.

The AA routes to AKL and SYD will probably be OK. But I do think that if AA axes or reduces any South Pacific route as a result of the fuel situation, it'll probably be DFW-BNE.

This was already mentioned upthread and the Queensland government subsidies to DL/AA for BNE flights still have another year to go. They are contractually obligated to operate a certain minimum number of seats. So it's possible schedule will be reduced, but it's highly unlikely the route will be entirely eliminated.

https://viewfromthewing.com/governme...g-to-brisbane/

I'm frankly shocked AA even runs (or ran) PHX-TIJ. Mexicans going to SD and people in San Diego wanting to fly into Mexico tend to just take advantage of the dedicated border crossing at TIJ; from there it's much easier/cheaper to get to other destinations in Mexico. Also, since AA doesn't have any OW partners in TIJ to share traffic with, this would seem to be an O&D-specific route, and based on the demographics I'd expect the clientele to be pretty price-conscious. Just seems like an odd route (no odder, I guess, than UA flying from EWR to Nuuk, but still... I wouldn't expect this to be a huge money-maker.)

You do realize that AA has a major hub in PHX??? So, PHX-TIJ potentially has people connecting from all over the South, Midwest, and Northeast connecting through PHX to the flight. I also suspect that AA got some TIJ city/airport incentives for flying the route. Apparently, it didn't work out.

Yes, but most of those people connecting from other places in the US, can fly into SD and make their way to the border for far less money than it would cost to fly directly into TIJ. I'm assuming most of the traffic would be people of Mexican descent visiting family/friends rather than business travelers, so more of a price-conscious crowd.

Similarly, for people based in Mexico, it's far cheaper to fly a domestic airline (including the Mexican LCCs) to TIJ and then cross the border from the airport, which is what most everyone I know in Mexico would do.

I understand what you are saying, but I am just mentioning other factors. PHX is a major hub for AA (so not relying on O&D traffic. In addition, I'm assuming that TIJ (city/airport/government) is providing incentives -- subsidies and covering losses -- for a certain length of time. It may well be that those incentives have now expired and that the route wasn't profitable on its own for all the reasons you mentioned above.

Orlando in August? Do you want to go there?

Do I want/need to go to MCO in August? Not really but families do.

David

As a Disney World pass holder, my (admittedly anecdotal) data set doesn't support your conclusion.

I went to Orlando over 10 years ago in August. The humidity/heat were pretty rough.

Back on the subject of this thread, I'm wondering if the routes AA is pausing from LAX would have worked better if AA had a bigger TPAC network ex-LAX feeding the domestic network. I think UA is able to fly some cool long-haul routes out of SFO like CHC because they have a robust domestic network out of SFO.