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-   -   Speculation on AA Route Cuts (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/2216552-speculation-aa-route-cuts.html)

FlyFreakquently May 31, 2026 11:38 am

Saw that they flew LAX-IAD and it didn't make a lot of sense to me. I'd imagine most of the O&D traffic between LAX and IAD is United, and if the point is to facilitate connections through LAX to the West Coast, I'd imagine PHX is a better option given how limited AA's regional network is ex-LAX.

DELee May 31, 2026 12:40 pm


Originally Posted by moondog (Post 37776743)
As a Disney World pass holder, my (admittedly anecdotal) data set doesn't support your conclusion.

So families don't want to go to MCO?

David

moondog May 31, 2026 4:34 pm


Originally Posted by DELee (Post 37776952)
So families don't want to go to MCO?

David

My observation was/is that August is a relatively low demand month for families visiting Orlando, based on the crowds I encounter at Disney World then. If you choose to brave it, you can get on popular rides without Lightening Pass in less than 30 minutes. Although I'm not an AA route planner, August seems like a sensible time period for a service reduction.

lrdpenn May 31, 2026 6:40 pm


Originally Posted by rudyjb (Post 37776777)
Back on the subject of this thread, I'm wondering if the routes AA is pausing from LAX would have worked better if AA had a bigger TPAC network ex-LAX feeding the domestic network. I think UA is able to fly some cool long-haul routes out of SFO like CHC because they have a robust domestic network out of SFO.

Intra-CA / very short haul too, in addition to TPAC. UA for example flies between LAX and SAN, SBA, SBP, PSP.

AA's LAX situation is in a deep hole I think. There is not much to connect with on LAX (except to/from Hawaii or Japan) compared to UA

dls25 Jun 1, 2026 10:25 am


Originally Posted by 985X (Post 37776426)
LAX-MCO also reduced from 2x daily/14 weekly to 3x weekly, operating on TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ONLY for 8/5-9/5. Make it make sense...

That is when the Disney corporate people fly, AA is more concerned about keeping their business than serving families.

JY1024 Jun 1, 2026 1:56 pm

Moderator note:

Feel free to continue to speculate about routes, speculate on oil prices, compare routes of other airlines, etc. in this thread. We've split out a factual thread that lists the route cuts and dates: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...il-prices.html

/Moderator

Extraordinary1 Jun 1, 2026 3:07 pm


Originally Posted by FlyFreakquently (Post 37776885)
Saw that they flew LAX-IAD and it didn't make a lot of sense to me. I'd imagine most of the O&D traffic between LAX and IAD is United, and if the point is to facilitate connections through LAX to the West Coast, I'd imagine PHX is a better option given how limited AA's regional network is ex-LAX.

I think the point of that was to have a red eye in the LAX-WAS market.

rasheed Jun 1, 2026 8:45 pm

The SNA/ONT to CLT flight reduction is tough because DL has their ATL routes. I guess SNA has JFK, but that feels mostly O&D. I think most people want non-LAX options, but those are also the first to go every time there is some industry issue. It is just a tough cycle where they are quick to drop but take many years to return, if ever.

I also speculate that LAX to Hawaii routes are in trouble because every major carrier offers them from LAX and then there are so many additional options from LGB, BUR, ONT. AA can drop it easily because of AS/HA oneworld, but even UA sells those AS/HA routes too. I would not be surprised if the credit card contracts stipulate offering such routes as we've all heard the card pitch mentioning these "exotic" destinations. But, just like what they did with Orlando, double-dailies to multiple islands seems hard to justify if they are selling them under $300 o/w.

moondog Jun 1, 2026 8:52 pm


Originally Posted by rasheed (Post 37779010)
The SNA/ONT to CLT flight reduction is tough because DL has their ATL routes. I guess SNA has JFK, but that feels mostly O&D. I think most people want non-LAX options, but those are also the first to go every time there is some industry issue. It is just a tough cycle where they are quick to drop but take many years to return, if ever.

I also speculate that LAX to Hawaii routes are in trouble because every major carrier offers them from LAX and then there are so many additional options from LGB, BUR, ONT. AA can drop it easily because of AS/HA oneworld, but even UA sells those AS/HA routes too. I would not be surprised if the credit card contracts stipulate offering such routes as we've all heard the card pitch mentioning these "exotic" destinations. But, just like what they did with Orlando, double-dailies to multiple islands seems hard to justify if they are selling them under $300 o/w.

Until UA retires its 777HDs, they will continue sending them to HNL and MCO.

rudyjb Jun 2, 2026 12:37 pm


Originally Posted by rasheed (Post 37779010)
The SNA/ONT to CLT flight reduction is tough because DL has their ATL routes. I guess SNA has JFK, but that feels mostly O&D. I think most people want non-LAX options, but those are also the first to go every time there is some industry issue. It is just a tough cycle where they are quick to drop but take many years to return, if ever.

I also speculate that LAX to Hawaii routes are in trouble because every major carrier offers them from LAX and then there are so many additional options from LGB, BUR, ONT. AA can drop it easily because of AS/HA oneworld, but even UA sells those AS/HA routes too. I would not be surprised if the credit card contracts stipulate offering such routes as we've all heard the card pitch mentioning these "exotic" destinations. But, just like what they did with Orlando, double-dailies to multiple islands seems hard to justify if they are selling them under $300 o/w.

It's SMF that's getting cut from CLT, not SNA (yet). Any ideas why SNA is able to maintain an insane amount of transcon service, but other smaller California airports (like SMF, SBA, FAT, ONT) are not? My hunch is that the closer proximity to Disneyland and Knotts Berry Farm than LAX plus the affluent areas around John Wayne Airport (think Laguna Beach, Newport Beach) are driving the demand from SNA.

1worldFlyer Jun 2, 2026 12:44 pm


Originally Posted by rudyjb (Post 37780045)
It's SMF that's getting cut from CLT, not SNA (yet). Any ideas why SNA is able to maintain an insane amount of transcon service, but other smaller California airports (like SMF, SBA, FAT, ONT) are not?

SMF (13.9 M passengers in 2025) is not smaller than SNA (11.4 M passengers in 2025).

But yes, I'm sure the entertainment venues near SNA drive more nationwide demand than SMF which sees more intra-state traffic.

moondog Jun 2, 2026 2:54 pm

You guys are making me miss AA's SJC hub, extremely convenient, and they had MRTC for part of the time too.

BigBopper Jun 2, 2026 3:03 pm

Not AA metal but AA code share. Finnair had major cuts today from all US cities except JFK.

Ask how i know 😏. And then ask how useless and helpless the exp desk was.

rudyjb Jun 5, 2026 9:11 am

Another one to watch for:
QR is hiring people in PHL, which, to me at least, is a precursory move to them bringing back PHL service. If this happens, then AA will probably not resume flying to Doha on its own metal.
https://bsky.app/profile/ishrionavia.../3mnkcqvh7zs2o


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