enviroian

Only if you're not chasing EQD, like my sorry ... does all the time.

only1percent

They'll release them in November at the earliest, unless forced by Delta or United to move earlier, because sitting here in early September we just don't yet have any remote picture on the resumption of business travel for 2021.

But the best guess is that almost nobody will have the frequency of domestic or (especially) international travel that will be required to hit the 2019 EQM threshholds for PP or EP, and EQD thresholds will require more international travel than is likely, so those will have to change.

However, even bigger shifts in basic structure of programs (benefits as well as qualifications) seem likely - the the massive changes to Basic Economy rules - from toxic to elites, to perfectly congenial - seem like a preview of that.

I'd also think that there's a huge opportunity to tinker with the rules to maximize the impact of the new alliances to fuel loyalty out of the two largest markets in the country (NYC, with JetBlue, and LA, with Alaska).

hhdl

I think either a complete rethink (e.g. making redeemable mile earnings the sum of distance-times-class-bonus and spend-times-factor-and-status-bonus and then making status a mile redemption) of qualification or retaining the same official thresholds is likely. Publishing new thresholds and having business travel come back enough to have too many elites in 2022 is not going to be desirable.

If the thresholds are unchanged, I'd expect the effective thresholds to be lowered by double EQD/EQM promotions that get extended (or turned into triple...) based on metrics like percent of passenger-miles being flown by EXPs etc.

dvs7310

Think it really depends on how open the long haul market is around the start of the year. I also expect that 2021 will be a really light travel year for a lot of businesses.

I'd be really curious about how many EXPs get it from road warrior domestic travel vs international long haul. I've always qualified for my status on long haul international so no matter how much I'd like to requal this year, it seems more and more that it'll be impossible due to border restrictions and quarantine requirements. The status extension is nice but I did want the SWUs for next year.

jhalapin

I would be okay with this.

jhalapin

[QUOTE=dvs7310;32655532]<SNIP>
I'd be really curious about how many EXPs get it from road warrior domestic travel vs international long haul. <SNIP>/QUOTE]

In a good year I have a couple of international trips, but I qualify every year from 95% domestic travel BIS miles.

Beachfun71

[QUOTE=jhalapin;32656010]Historically I’ve earned EXP all with domestic travel. The last 2 years I’ve been making ~4 Europe trips, but since those trips end up totaling about 2 weeks each, I still find myself scrambling just about as much the rest of the year.

Been a nice break so far this year. I’m only at 35k eqm... just starting domestic travel again, but not sure how far I’ll get.

golfingboy

I’d be surprised if AA reverts back to 2019 qualification requirements for 2021. The global economy is artificially inflated when the underlying data doesn’t support the state of the global economy (I.e. governments, central banks and easing policies are keeping things afloat) so it’s a matter of time before we have to face the music. Tax revenues will shrink, public and private sector spending will shrink, disposable incomes will fall (especially with financial aid or protection programs such as unemployment/stipends or loan protections start expiring), etc.

With that said - I do not think status will be extended again but the qualification requirements will probably be more akin to the requirements for this year. Whether it’s through double/triple promotions (including EQDs/EQMs) or just a simple reduction in the requirements. Promotions might be a good way to entice bookings but might not feel like the right thing to do. Will be interesting to see how the airlines get creative with benefits and qualifications for 2021 given how the customer base has drastically changed.

VFR

I would add that I don't think we will see a return to 25k/50k/75k/100k EQM qualification levels immediately, just given the likely lack of travel. I have no idea what they will do about EQDs, just given the fact that most fares are quite cheap.

AA's promotions have recently (pre-COVID) mostly consisted of double/triple (base) RDMs for four AA flights, which seems (1) expensive, if you are giving ~15% of the money paid for the ticket back to the customer in miles and (2) not amazingly motivating for elites. I also find it hard to get excited about the RDM promotions for spending with X number of car rental / hotel / phone company partners.

View From the Wing reports that AA wants to attract younger, infrequent flyers. If they feel like being innovative, I think it's possible that they introduce a 10k EQM level (silver?) that includes group 5 boarding and preferred seat selection, though it's hard to introduce a low-level status level without cannibalizing the credit card benefits -- they want these customers to get the credit card as well as put them on the status treadmill.