Same boat as you. But I likely will not take any flights - so while I was extended Plat Pro - I requal'ed anyway at the new level by mid-Feb 2020. and not too far away from EXP. Main reason to stick with AA for a while is to burn miles, when it is safe to travel.

Upgrades are basically gone, stopped getting upgrades as EXP a few year back when rolling dollars hit. If I travel I will by F at any cost. I don't need to travel at all, but my thought is forget about status (have LT Gold for free bags , etc) and just buy F for the few times I want to travel. You need status - EXP is best - to redeem miles with no change fee - to me this is the best benefit. AA is big in DCA so that is a factor for AA.

You could easily fly 50k BIS miles in J, get 100k EQMs, and barely break $15k on discount J fares (on AA metal). At the same time, a road warrior could buy cheap, advance discount Y fares, and still hit 100k EQMs/BIS (1:1) and also barely get to $15k spend.

The upgrade lottery was fun when I was in my 20s, had less discretionary income, and didn't mind taking the chance on ending up in a Y seat (which as EP, would still usually be bulkhead or exit row).

It's sort of annoying now that I can/will pay for F/J but still need to try to keep EP for things like free award ticket cancellation, as you mentioned, OWE status, award ticket upgrades, etc. -- AA will generally still get at least 50k/year BIS miles in J from me, but otherwise, like many former elites have already done, I'd probably just become a free agent at this point. For the rest of 2020, I suppose I'm already a free agent, but there doesn't seem to be anywhere worth flying at the moment.

I don't have official numbers but
I think you are seriously underestimating the Covid impact to air travel just based on your own personal anecdotal experience.
The impact of covid is/has been MASSIVE and a reasonable quantification of the impact won't be possible until a few more years down the road.
And precisely because the impact is massive AA (and mostly all airlines in the world) have been generous extending status, etc. They know better and their EXP system will not collapse, all will be fine.

For those rare cases of people that are still traveling (like you) I think there won't be much change.
There are and will be significantly less EXPs in the air (despite the incentives) but also significantly less flights and capacity.
And the deal breaker for upgrades will be EQD as it has always been.
For those in the top spending tier, there won't be such "devaluation".

IF things go back to pre-covid normal too soon (covid magically disappears), for sure there will be a scramble and re-adjustment affecting all travelers (not only EXPs).

If there is a devaluation of the AA FF program, it won't be because there are too many EXPs, it will be because they will start trimming down the benefits for economical reasons (if AA thinks it is wise to do so).

I'm on a 3 month status match challenge right now with AA from UA. I was an EXP with AA back in 99 for a year, decided to try them again since I am secure at 1K with UA for another year. They gave me what looks like unreachable (for me) offer, but I took it anyhow just to see what was different from UA where I am a 22 year 1K (AA EXP equiv) with 2mm which gives me lifetime Platinum (AA PP). AA challenge is $5k EQD spend, 35,000 EQM or 40 EQS. Being based out of DEN I'll hit the miles and segments but will fall short of the dollars not doing any international flying, and domestic flying has been stupid cheap. There are pros and cons to both airlines that is for sure.
Now I can't compare apples to apples yet since I haven't flown UA since mid March.I don't know what my results would be on UA in the current environment but I will after this challenge is done. I do work for a small company who supports my travel but I tend to book the lowest economy fare that isn't basic economy.

AA Pros:
At 30 segments I've been upgraded on 29 of them with the exception being the first one. Upgrades are my most valued point of status. I have eaten enough fruit and cheese trays to last me a while though! I was happy with yogurt and fruit this week on a morning flight. United upgrades were so few pre-covid I wonder if I did something to make them mad. It is hard to compare service levels now, again no apples to apples comparison.
CLT hub is very workable for me, ORD isn't bad either. YMMV of course, everybody has their love/hate with hubs.I haven't done PHX yet on AA and I go west a lot.
Currently group 1 still boards first, UA is just the opposite I'm told.
Generalizing for sure, but as a whole the AA employees are much nicer than UA employees and a LOT more helpful.
Not sure why since I've never been Global Services at UA in 22 years, but AA CK cart has met me three times coming off flights at DFW offering me assistance if I wanted it.
Currently AA is about 20% cheaper than UA on most routing. A few less direct flights on AA since I'm at DEN, but I do plenty of connecting on UA too to get a decent fare especially through the cauldron of UA employee nastiness, SFO.
AA in flight internet much more reliable than UA. Many UA flights start with an apology why the internet isn't working.

AA Cons:

I detest gate change roulette at DFW
UA app is so superior to the AA app it's not even funny. My second most valued part of flying, being a 1k I can do so much that either the AA app can't do, or I just haven;t figured it out yet (very possible).
UA also has regional gate check bags down, Always first or second bag up,. Most times they bring them over by hand before they even load the cart for everyone else.. I only have done it three times with AA but my bag has been the last 3-4 every time.
If I'm not up front I prefer a bulkhead. I've only been on 2 AA flights (738's I think) that had open floor in front of the bulkhead where you could put your stuff. United has 95% of their planes configured with open floor bulkheads. Why AA?

Unless they decide they want a conquest customer from United, I won't make the challenge and will likely be back at United with some flights thrown AA's way. I wonder how many others with guaranteed status on another airline are trying this, I'm sure AA elites are trying it too.

Like me 😔

This. I have still been flying (although not as frequently as in the past) and most of my trips have been around $100 each way. I don't see how there would be very many new EXPs that are able to meet the EQDs.

No one knows what business travel will look like post COVID 19 and even more importantly what the "work from home" environment will be like. My hunch is that we will see a massive shift downwards in business travel. The trend was heading towards virtual but COVID 19 just sped up the process. In the same way that it has sped up a sizable reduction in retail space. I was a consultant to retail in a prior life and I remember 20 years ago retail CEOs saying no way would online ever force their chain out of business because people needed and highly valued the "personal touch". Most of those said retail chains are either no longer in business or struggling to survive under Chapter 11.

Many a traveling business person here on FT (and a netters) has rambled on and on of how their job is so "more effective" in person and that's probably true. But when a corporate finance manager looks at the cost of sending 3 people business class to Europe versus a Zoom meeting and essentially accomplishes the same task the money wins. Not to mention you might not have a customer office to go to. Those people might be working out of their homes in the future.

If that is the new trend legacies are going to need to change their business model. They will monetize the premium cabins even more while making the coach experience so miserable those with the financial means will pony up for a premium seat. Upgrades such as they are will go to the top EXP/CKs. Yes AA (and others) might have reduced elite qualifications again in 2021 but eventually AA (and others) would adapt to the new normal.

I've already have come to the conclusion that at some point when the near guarantee upgrades go away (as a very low spend EXP) if I want premium I'll need to shell out the bucks. Hopefully the upfare deals are good. I'm in software development and deployment and travel in my company (as well as my brother's, he has the same job with a different software provider) is near done for good. As I look around the industry I'm seeing not just more software companies going more virtual but their clients demanding virtual sessions over paying for travel. This is being repeated throughout industry after industry. Business travel will never go away entirely in the sense some malls will survive but many will perish.

Agree with most of this.

A friend of mine works for a blue chip company and he used to rack up more than 150k BIS miles per year with star alliance (mostly with transatl or transpac work trips to Asia or Eastern Europe).
Post-covid, he is still working (same position) and not flying at all. Company has told him not to expect to go back to the office and keep working from home until June 2021.
(Just one more anecdotal data point).

We recently had a client that demanded in person meeting at a place in the world without quarantine restrictions (it was most likely going to be Houston, LOL) but it was only for a pitch. Top management declined (another data point)

The changes are profound and dramatic, no doubt.

I would not worry about "too many EXPs" in 2021.

There will be "too many" EXPs in 2021 only if all or most of the current EXPs resume their normal travel, AA continues reduced qualification requirements into 2021, and lots of new EXPs are minted. I suspect none of that will be true. I do expect that upgrades won't be especially easy, however, as capacity increases lag ridership increases, and more people buy F outright to get some semblance of social distance on the plane.

Very much doubt that many EXPS will be able to afford the EQD requirements on their own with their companies requiring a lot less travel

Travel is so cheap now. If I complete all my trips this year, I will have enough EQM for ExPlat but only enough EQD for Plat.

I was at RDU at the other day and inquired at the gate about going standby and upgrading on my connection at CLT back to MIA. GA agent said "EXP not many of you flying." I do think there's going to be another kind of promotion in 2021 but not as generous as 2020. Maybe EXP for $12K EDQ and 100K EQMs. But how many will EXP/CKs will requalify?????

The real question is what will the qualifying EQM & EQD be for 2021. It’s not like effective 1/1/21 we are all going to just resume business travel. I see AA splitting the remaining 2020 requirements and a normal qualifying year.

who the hell knows really. I’m going to satisfy EXP for this year. The OPM train ended 3/7/20 for me. :(

Depends on the market but yes, last week AA was selling LAX-JFK tickets for as little as $74 one-way in regular economy, not basic while J and F fares have remained excessively high.

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