argolfer

With so many people being extended through 2021 and more and more attaining EXP this year through the reduced requirements, is there going to be a surge of EXPs that has the effect of devaluing status?

Case in point: I was going to easily make Platinum this year. Platinum Pro was a distinct possibility. But now I'm just 2 trips away from EXP. I will, without a doubt, make it. My travel is essential and I have been traveling again since May. What kind of effect will this have on the program? I'm sure there have to be a lot of people like me.

enviroian

The amount of re-qualifying EXP’s should be low I would imagine. The amount of rollover EXP’s AA allowed will be a large amount.

fotographer

myself..already qualified back in March (yes that was a first for me), my wife who is also EXP will qualify with the reduced levels required.
Honestly at this point... 1 paid ticket booked... and 3 international trips booked with miles...
next year. who knows....
So I think that the even growing numbers of EXP, I am sure there are a lot of us out there, that have curtailed their travel plans for now.. so in terms of getting upgrades etc.. I think it will be fine.
After all, being EXP is all about the free upgrades... right

enviroian

not for me not even close. The word “upgrade” really now isn’t really any upgrade at all.

the only true benefit are the 2 systemwides.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

Maybe more EXPs but 12 month rolling dollar spent will determine upgrades. I would imagine there will be a fair number of EXPs (and maybe CKs) that had their status extended but would not have set foot on a plane in many months.

JJeffrey

The amount of first time qualifying EXPs in 2020 will be so small in the grand scheme of things that it's borderline laughable to suggest any kind of potential devaluation or surging of the EXP population in 2021.

MarkOK

The only things that are limited pie in this are mostly the free upgrades and competing for space for SWUs, right?

As for the first thing, I think the value of ExPlat status is probably higher by no other reason than business travel is sluggish. 10 ExPs traveling 6 flight segments a week has more of an effect on taking upgrade space than 50 ExPs traveling on average 1 segment a week. And overall, the overriding factor in that is what routes you are flying and when. DFW Monday/Thursday travel based ExPs never have and never will have it all that good (though, for the only 2 flights I have taken this summer, I did upgrade).

As for the values of SWUs, that is a whole 'nother bucket of worms and # ExPs is only a minor ingredient in that soup.

coxm

This is me. I've been a >$75,000 / 250-300,000 mile per year EXP/CK for the past 5 years. I have not been on a plane since February 10. I do not anticipate being on a plane anytime soon, although I do have a few trips booked for later this year/planning for early next year, I anticipate the flights will be canceled and I'll have them refunded.

As long as international borders are closed and medical conferences are called off, I won't be heading anywhere.

argolfer

That's sort of what I was getting at -- whether anyone else thinks there's a lot of people like me who will newly qualify this year due to the sharply reduced requirements. If anyone thinks that there will be, that is likely a minority view.

I'm not sure how many people are like me. My travel is only slightly reduced. And though my spend will be down, it's only down a bit on account of not living in a hub city. So I feel like I'm probably an aberration.

tomj888

Well, we all have different reasons for status. Then once we attain status, we have different expectations from AA. Having flown twice since March, I've been upgraded each time. A321's and 789's. Lot has changed. FA's for the most part avoid any contact and conversation. Most people sit on the plane and don't venture out of their seats. I think twice about getting out of my seat, even to pee. Planes are much cleaner and we leave on time for the most part. Those are good things. by lowering my expectations I am ok with travel these days. I believe once I start TATL travel I will want more. Not sure I'll get it as far as service is concerned. In addition, I think I'll bring along the food I want to consume. Fruit plates on 11 hour flights just wont cut it for me. Sadly, the world has changed and is still evolving. How sad that once we experience todays travel we will pine away for yesterdays travel---and that wasn't anything to write home to mom about. Welcome to the new world.

jfinsocal

On the contrary - I’d expect DEQM/DEQD promotions in ‘21 to incentivize travel.

Casswiki

I think any "devaluing" of EXP will be as a result of some hairbrained re-scheming by AA, not through the passengers just taking their flights.

Dallas49er

I have been EXP since 2005and just requalified again. MRS Dallas49er, EXP 2006-2018 (Gigantic FA J Service Issue 2018-She will now swim home rather than flyAA. We used to commute monthly DFW-CDG-DFW on AA) No longer.

The landscape has changed. We just buy F/J now. And as a result of my wife's experience, in flight and afterwards, AA is no longer 1st, 2nd, 3rd, ..675th choice when booking. Luckily, we worked hard, and can afford it .

If OP wants to "jump ahead" and be "more special", on the cheap, in these special times, may I humbly suggest: If you want AA f, buy f, and get those EQDs. $$$$ are the only thing that counts with Raj and Doug.

Because, if you don't, ANY CK, will trump your sorry posterior, 150% of the time.

Enjoy C...C...C... not Phirst Class!

dave_261

3 unknowns will determine if there are 'too many EXP'.

1) How many new people will qualify in 2020?
2) What will the EXP travel patterns be like in 2021?
3) What sort of network will AA operate in 2021?

Much of 2 and 3 will be dictated by if/when there's a vaccine which restores leisure and business confidence.

Have to throw out the history books when AA builds a schedule and only time will tell if 1) AA will have too much capacity, which would mean good upgrade inventory and perks for EXP's, or 2) AA will underestimate travel patterns and have limited inventory, thus reducing some EXP opportunities (namely for upgrades)

GTITAN

FWIW, I am now both and wife will be next week.

Safe Travels