Too many Executive Platinum/ EXPs in 2021?
 

With so many people being extended through 2021 and more and more attaining EXP this year through the reduced requirements, is there going to be a surge of EXPs that has the effect of devaluing status?

Case in point: I was going to easily make Platinum this year. Platinum Pro was a distinct possibility. But now I'm just 2 trips away from EXP. I will, without a doubt, make it. My travel is essential and I have been traveling again since May. What kind of effect will this have on the program? I'm sure there have to be a lot of people like me.

The amount of re-qualifying EXP’s should be low I would imagine. The amount of rollover EXP’s AA allowed will be a large amount.

myself..already qualified back in March (yes that was a first for me), my wife who is also EXP will qualify with the reduced levels required.
Honestly at this point... 1 paid ticket booked... and 3 international trips booked with miles...
next year. who knows....
So I think that the even growing numbers of EXP, I am sure there are a lot of us out there, that have curtailed their travel plans for now.. so in terms of getting upgrades etc.. I think it will be fine.
After all, being EXP is all about the free upgrades... right

not for me not even close. The word “upgrade” really now isn’t really any upgrade at all.

the only true benefit are the 2 systemwides.

Maybe more EXPs but 12 month rolling dollar spent will determine upgrades. I would imagine there will be a fair number of EXPs (and maybe CKs) that had their status extended but would not have set foot on a plane in many months.

The amount of first time qualifying EXPs in 2020 will be so small in the grand scheme of things that it's borderline laughable to suggest any kind of potential devaluation or surging of the EXP population in 2021.

The only things that are limited pie in this are mostly the free upgrades and competing for space for SWUs, right?

As for the first thing, I think the value of ExPlat status is probably higher by no other reason than business travel is sluggish. 10 ExPs traveling 6 flight segments a week has more of an effect on taking upgrade space than 50 ExPs traveling on average 1 segment a week. And overall, the overriding factor in that is what routes you are flying and when. DFW Monday/Thursday travel based ExPs never have and never will have it all that good (though, for the only 2 flights I have taken this summer, I did upgrade).

As for the values of SWUs, that is a whole 'nother bucket of worms and # ExPs is only a minor ingredient in that soup.

This is me. I've been a >$75,000 / 250-300,000 mile per year EXP/CK for the past 5 years. I have not been on a plane since February 10. I do not anticipate being on a plane anytime soon, although I do have a few trips booked for later this year/planning for early next year, I anticipate the flights will be canceled and I'll have them refunded.

As long as international borders are closed and medical conferences are called off, I won't be heading anywhere.

That's sort of what I was getting at -- whether anyone else thinks there's a lot of people like me who will newly qualify this year due to the sharply reduced requirements. If anyone thinks that there will be, that is likely a minority view.

I'm not sure how many people are like me. My travel is only slightly reduced. And though my spend will be down, it's only down a bit on account of not living in a hub city. So I feel like I'm probably an aberration.

Well, we all have different reasons for status. Then once we attain status, we have different expectations from AA. Having flown twice since March, I've been upgraded each time. A321's and 789's. Lot has changed. FA's for the most part avoid any contact and conversation. Most people sit on the plane and don't venture out of their seats. I think twice about getting out of my seat, even to pee. Planes are much cleaner and we leave on time for the most part. Those are good things. by lowering my expectations I am ok with travel these days. I believe once I start TATL travel I will want more. Not sure I'll get it as far as service is concerned. In addition, I think I'll bring along the food I want to consume. Fruit plates on 11 hour flights just wont cut it for me. Sadly, the world has changed and is still evolving. How sad that once we experience todays travel we will pine away for yesterdays travel---and that wasn't anything to write home to mom about. Welcome to the new world.

On the contrary - I’d expect DEQM/DEQD promotions in ‘21 to incentivize travel.

I think any "devaluing" of EXP will be as a result of some hairbrained re-scheming by AA, not through the passengers just taking their flights.

Just a quick though...
 

I have been EXP since 2005and just requalified again. MRS Dallas49er, EXP 2006-2018 (Gigantic FA J Service Issue 2018-She will now swim home rather than flyAA. We used to commute monthly DFW-CDG-DFW on AA) No longer.

The landscape has changed. We just buy F/J now. And as a result of my wife's experience, in flight and afterwards, AA is no longer 1st, 2nd, 3rd, ..675th choice when booking. Luckily, we worked hard, and can afford it .

If OP wants to "jump ahead" and be "more special", on the cheap, in these special times, may I humbly suggest: If you want AA f, buy f, and get those EQDs. $$$$ are the only thing that counts with Raj and Doug.

Because, if you don't, ANY CK, will trump your sorry posterior, 150% of the time.

Enjoy C...C...C... not Phirst Class!

3 unknowns will determine if there are 'too many EXP'.

1) How many new people will qualify in 2020?
2) What will the EXP travel patterns be like in 2021?
3) What sort of network will AA operate in 2021?

Much of 2 and 3 will be dictated by if/when there's a vaccine which restores leisure and business confidence.

Have to throw out the history books when AA builds a schedule and only time will tell if 1) AA will have too much capacity, which would mean good upgrade inventory and perks for EXP's, or 2) AA will underestimate travel patterns and have limited inventory, thus reducing some EXP opportunities (namely for upgrades)

FWIW, I am now both and wife will be next week. :)

Safe Travels

Competition: Carrying over All EQDs from 2020 into 2021 counters for 2022 status
 

Somewhat related to this topic, Delta appears to be carrying over all EQDs from 2020 into 2021 for 2022 status.

https://nomascoach.boardingarea.com/...m=BoardingArea

Your move AA.

HHonors also does rollover - both are smart moves. This summer I had two long-haul and expensive leisure trips canceled because of the closed border and no flights. The company travel stopped back in March and did not return for now. I would love to go to Europe and/or SE Asia but the borders are still closed. Yes, Americans can go to Turkey, Maldives, and Mexico. That is about it. We may plan an extended weekend in Mexico but we also have plenty of miles for that. Rollover EQD would shift some of that to paid tickets.

There's nothing about MQD's rolling over on Delta's website -- https://www.delta.com/us/en/travel-u...miles-benefits
I'd take anything stated by a frontline agent with a very large grain of salt.

Did I commit some massive faux pas that I don’t know about? All I did was ask if there are going to be too many because of the relaxed standards. I used myself as an example of that, since I would not qualify in most normal years.

I didn’t even mention upgrades or FC... 😳

Now some kind of weird chest beating is being directed at me. I’m genuinely confused.

FWIW, (I’m not sure why anyone would care) I pay for first 90% of the time. Not sure why that’s any of your business, though.

2? have they changed the SWU upon reaching EXP?

4 one way

I do anticipate some elite promotions in 2021 although I don't think they will be as generous. I could see for example the threshold for EXP being reduced to 120K EQDs. However, this will be dependent upon travel trends for next year.

I have the same issue - >$250k EQD, >300k EQM for 5 years CK who stopped all travel and cancelled >$50k in booked flights as of early-March. Without an easy means of getting into the E.U. and with medical congresses going virtual, I cannot foresee any meaningful travel until ~3Q'21.

I think the upgrade challenge for the remainder of this year and into next year (and maybe even to 2022) won't be getting knocked out by high spend EXPs/CKs as much as high end (and probably mostly older) leisure flyers willing to pay/upfare to F to avoid a crowded Y cabin. More so if AA aggressively offers upfare promotions. I'm flying RDU/CLT/MIA this Thursday and as a very low spend EXP it doesn't look like upgrades are going to clear on those flights. I should have taken the $157 upfare offer when I had a chance (which now is something like $1.1K).

Correction
 

Now reported by Rene Points that this in fact is NOT happenning:

https://renespoints.boardingarea.com...m=BoardingArea

Apologies for the false alarm.

I'm hoping 3Q21, but more realistically believing 3Q22.

Not sure if you are Commercial or R&D, or therapeutic area (I lead pediatric onc dev for a small startup), but ASCO has already made meetings through 1Q21 virtual.

Many ExPlat's were weeded out when they reduced the available credit towards EQD from credit cards at the same time they increased the thresholds.

There will be so few newly minted EXPs that next year will be, at worst, just like this year would have been without COVID/status extensions. Probably even better because business travel does not yet show signs of returning, so many elites will still be grounded.

Heck - I don't even know if I'll requal for 2022 EXP if they keep the reduced qualifications levels around for another year. I haven't been on a plane since the first week of March - and I wouldn't be surprised if I take less than 10 flights between now and March 2021. I don't see regular travel returning until late 2nd Quarter 2021, if even then. The idea there's going to be some surge of new EXPs is laughable.

And as for the whinging about upgrades and first class service: well, let's see what the status of the airline industry is in 6 months, then maybe I'll start caring about that stuff again.

Same boat as you. But I likely will not take any flights - so while I was extended Plat Pro - I requal'ed anyway at the new level by mid-Feb 2020. and not too far away from EXP. Main reason to stick with AA for a while is to burn miles, when it is safe to travel.

Upgrades are basically gone, stopped getting upgrades as EXP a few year back when rolling dollars hit. If I travel I will by F at any cost. I don't need to travel at all, but my thought is forget about status (have LT Gold for free bags , etc) and just buy F for the few times I want to travel. You need status - EXP is best - to redeem miles with no change fee - to me this is the best benefit. AA is big in DCA so that is a factor for AA.

You could easily fly 50k BIS miles in J, get 100k EQMs, and barely break $15k on discount J fares (on AA metal). At the same time, a road warrior could buy cheap, advance discount Y fares, and still hit 100k EQMs/BIS (1:1) and also barely get to $15k spend.

The upgrade lottery was fun when I was in my 20s, had less discretionary income, and didn't mind taking the chance on ending up in a Y seat (which as EP, would still usually be bulkhead or exit row).

It's sort of annoying now that I can/will pay for F/J but still need to try to keep EP for things like free award ticket cancellation, as you mentioned, OWE status, award ticket upgrades, etc. -- AA will generally still get at least 50k/year BIS miles in J from me, but otherwise, like many former elites have already done, I'd probably just become a free agent at this point. For the rest of 2020, I suppose I'm already a free agent, but there doesn't seem to be anywhere worth flying at the moment.

I don't have official numbers but
I think you are seriously underestimating the Covid impact to air travel just based on your own personal anecdotal experience.
The impact of covid is/has been MASSIVE and a reasonable quantification of the impact won't be possible until a few more years down the road.
And precisely because the impact is massive AA (and mostly all airlines in the world) have been generous extending status, etc. They know better and their EXP system will not collapse, all will be fine.

For those rare cases of people that are still traveling (like you) I think there won't be much change.
There are and will be significantly less EXPs in the air (despite the incentives) but also significantly less flights and capacity.
And the deal breaker for upgrades will be EQD as it has always been.
For those in the top spending tier, there won't be such "devaluation".

IF things go back to pre-covid normal too soon (covid magically disappears), for sure there will be a scramble and re-adjustment affecting all travelers (not only EXPs).

If there is a devaluation of the AA FF program, it won't be because there are too many EXPs, it will be because they will start trimming down the benefits for economical reasons (if AA thinks it is wise to do so).

I'm on a 3 month status match challenge right now with AA from UA. I was an EXP with AA back in 99 for a year, decided to try them again since I am secure at 1K with UA for another year. They gave me what looks like unreachable (for me) offer, but I took it anyhow just to see what was different from UA where I am a 22 year 1K (AA EXP equiv) with 2mm which gives me lifetime Platinum (AA PP). AA challenge is $5k EQD spend, 35,000 EQM or 40 EQS. Being based out of DEN I'll hit the miles and segments but will fall short of the dollars not doing any international flying, and domestic flying has been stupid cheap. There are pros and cons to both airlines that is for sure.
Now I can't compare apples to apples yet since I haven't flown UA since mid March.I don't know what my results would be on UA in the current environment but I will after this challenge is done. I do work for a small company who supports my travel but I tend to book the lowest economy fare that isn't basic economy.

AA Pros:
At 30 segments I've been upgraded on 29 of them with the exception being the first one. Upgrades are my most valued point of status. I have eaten enough fruit and cheese trays to last me a while though! I was happy with yogurt and fruit this week on a morning flight. United upgrades were so few pre-covid I wonder if I did something to make them mad. It is hard to compare service levels now, again no apples to apples comparison.
CLT hub is very workable for me, ORD isn't bad either. YMMV of course, everybody has their love/hate with hubs.I haven't done PHX yet on AA and I go west a lot.
Currently group 1 still boards first, UA is just the opposite I'm told.
Generalizing for sure, but as a whole the AA employees are much nicer than UA employees and a LOT more helpful.
Not sure why since I've never been Global Services at UA in 22 years, but AA CK cart has met me three times coming off flights at DFW offering me assistance if I wanted it.
Currently AA is about 20% cheaper than UA on most routing. A few less direct flights on AA since I'm at DEN, but I do plenty of connecting on UA too to get a decent fare especially through the cauldron of UA employee nastiness, SFO.
AA in flight internet much more reliable than UA. Many UA flights start with an apology why the internet isn't working.

AA Cons:

I detest gate change roulette at DFW
UA app is so superior to the AA app it's not even funny. My second most valued part of flying, being a 1k I can do so much that either the AA app can't do, or I just haven;t figured it out yet (very possible).
UA also has regional gate check bags down, Always first or second bag up,. Most times they bring them over by hand before they even load the cart for everyone else.. I only have done it three times with AA but my bag has been the last 3-4 every time.
If I'm not up front I prefer a bulkhead. I've only been on 2 AA flights (738's I think) that had open floor in front of the bulkhead where you could put your stuff. United has 95% of their planes configured with open floor bulkheads. Why AA?

Unless they decide they want a conquest customer from United, I won't make the challenge and will likely be back at United with some flights thrown AA's way. I wonder how many others with guaranteed status on another airline are trying this, I'm sure AA elites are trying it too.

Like me 😔

This. I have still been flying (although not as frequently as in the past) and most of my trips have been around $100 each way. I don't see how there would be very many new EXPs that are able to meet the EQDs.

No one knows what business travel will look like post COVID 19 and even more importantly what the "work from home" environment will be like. My hunch is that we will see a massive shift downwards in business travel. The trend was heading towards virtual but COVID 19 just sped up the process. In the same way that it has sped up a sizable reduction in retail space. I was a consultant to retail in a prior life and I remember 20 years ago retail CEOs saying no way would online ever force their chain out of business because people needed and highly valued the "personal touch". Most of those said retail chains are either no longer in business or struggling to survive under Chapter 11.

Many a traveling business person here on FT (and a netters) has rambled on and on of how their job is so "more effective" in person and that's probably true. But when a corporate finance manager looks at the cost of sending 3 people business class to Europe versus a Zoom meeting and essentially accomplishes the same task the money wins. Not to mention you might not have a customer office to go to. Those people might be working out of their homes in the future.

If that is the new trend legacies are going to need to change their business model. They will monetize the premium cabins even more while making the coach experience so miserable those with the financial means will pony up for a premium seat. Upgrades such as they are will go to the top EXP/CKs. Yes AA (and others) might have reduced elite qualifications again in 2021 but eventually AA (and others) would adapt to the new normal.

I've already have come to the conclusion that at some point when the near guarantee upgrades go away (as a very low spend EXP) if I want premium I'll need to shell out the bucks. Hopefully the upfare deals are good. I'm in software development and deployment and travel in my company (as well as my brother's, he has the same job with a different software provider) is near done for good. As I look around the industry I'm seeing not just more software companies going more virtual but their clients demanding virtual sessions over paying for travel. This is being repeated throughout industry after industry. Business travel will never go away entirely in the sense some malls will survive but many will perish.

Agree with most of this.

A friend of mine works for a blue chip company and he used to rack up more than 150k BIS miles per year with star alliance (mostly with transatl or transpac work trips to Asia or Eastern Europe).
Post-covid, he is still working (same position) and not flying at all. Company has told him not to expect to go back to the office and keep working from home until June 2021.
(Just one more anecdotal data point).

We recently had a client that demanded in person meeting at a place in the world without quarantine restrictions (it was most likely going to be Houston, LOL) but it was only for a pitch. Top management declined (another data point)

The changes are profound and dramatic, no doubt.

I would not worry about "too many EXPs" in 2021.

There will be "too many" EXPs in 2021 only if all or most of the current EXPs resume their normal travel, AA continues reduced qualification requirements into 2021, and lots of new EXPs are minted. I suspect none of that will be true. I do expect that upgrades won't be especially easy, however, as capacity increases lag ridership increases, and more people buy F outright to get some semblance of social distance on the plane.

Very much doubt that many EXPS will be able to afford the EQD requirements on their own with their companies requiring a lot less travel