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Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Jun 17, 19, 6:57 am   -   Wikipost
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?


13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through 19 August 2019.

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The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.

The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.

American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".

Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.

29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.

7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.

See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.

11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.

11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)

11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)

12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.

12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.

Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article

13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.

13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.

13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:

On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.

15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.

Currently, AA has removed the 737 MAX 8 aircraft from scheduling through 19 August 2019. The FAA must clear the MAX before it can fly again. AA has 24 MAX 8s grounded and has canceled 115 daily flights as a result. 30 April 2019

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Old Mar 11, 19, 9:50 am
  #136  
 
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will double check.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 9:54 am
  #137  
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Old Mar 11, 19, 9:56 am
  #138  
 
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
Not a good day for Boeing stockholders.
If not today, than in a short timeframe of days to come, might be a great time to pick up more shares though. It will go back up.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:04 am
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Originally Posted by econometrics View Post
False. Still showing 7M9 on many flights this week and next via ExpertFlyer an United.com.
To quote the source: "UA appears to be doing a quiet swap. They are keeping the 73M flights in their schedule, but are swapping to 738 and 739 equipment. If you FlightAware by equipment type over the US, you should see a bunch of SWA/AA/AC/AMX/WJA 73M flights, but none from UA."

Follow up communication indicates UA has one 73M in the air presently, but scheduling indicates it is being swapped for another aircraft (739) when it lands.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:10 am
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Originally Posted by rowingman View Post
To quote the source: "UA appears to be doing a quiet swap. They are keeping the 73M flights in their schedule, but are swapping to 738 and 739 equipment. If you FlightAware by equipment type over the US, you should see a bunch of SWA/AA/AC/AMX/WJA 73M flights, but none from UA."

Follow up communication indicates UA has one 73M in the air presently, but scheduling indicates it is being swapped for another aircraft (739) when it lands.
These are all UA MAX 9s. Some of which departed less than 50 min ago. So...




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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:21 am
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Originally Posted by milypan View Post
I think that's sarcastic, but I'm not certain. I'll try to put this as simply as possible. Over the past decade, the average rate of ~100% fatal hull losses for the 737NG and A320 is less than 1 per 10,000 aircraft-years of operation (i.e., a rate of 0.0001). That includes everything -- even CFIT, terrorism, and suicide. The MAX has less than 300 aircraft-years of operation. The probability that it would suffer at least two 100% fatal hull losses in that period, if it had the same safety profile as the 737NG and A320, is less than 1 in 1,000. Hence the conclusion that there's almost certainly something wrong with it.
This got me interested enough to do some analysis of my own.

According to Boeing's own statistics (http://www.boeing.com/resources/boei...df/statsum.pdf), the 737NG has a fatal hull loss rate of 0.08 per million departures.

Under the null hypothesis, the failure rate of the MAX is the same as the failure rate of the NG (the population failure rate p = 8 x 10{-8}. There's no reason that failures should be correlated, so the distribution of failures should have the Binomial(n, p) distribution, where n is the number of MAX departures.

If you believe Wikipedia, there have been 350 MAX deliveries, most in 2018 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...and_deliveries). If we assume an average of 4 segments per day and an average of 300 days per frame that is n = 420,000 departures.

The probability of observing two or more such failures in 420000 departures (which is 1 minus the probability of observing one or none) is less than 0.0006. Since the standard for statistical significance is usually 0.05, anyone armed with these statistics would conclude that this is strong evidence the hull loss rate of the MAX is higher than the hull loss rate of the NG.

Incidentally, even if I have underestimated the number of MAX departures by a factor of 2, changing to n = 840000 the P-value is still 0.003, which is still highly significant. However, what is most interesting is that if we instead had only observed one failure until now (Lion Air), the P-value would have been just around 0.05 (depending on your assumption about n), which is much, much weaker evidence of a difference. So statistically speaking, people are actually correct to see the second event in a short period of time as cause for worry. The second failure in a short period of time

Excel calculation follows for those interested.

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bfz70xdgPdsW9vR1jP8NMBcgwAViBO/kOOYVRGasXbByvJ2p3Y+7693dDytsIR5BgArECc/Iccw7iMJyu7xTDlK9s7bEZ8GEOOAcAKxMl/yDGMjvEbAIfLqlV1d1Ot+r69XWEe3+UOcgwAViBO/kOOAQCQYwCwBHHyH3IMACAS/PnzR15fX+Xl5UWen5/l9+/f8uvXL3l6epKfP3/K4+OjPDw8yP39vfz48UO+f/8ud3d3kmWZfPv2Tb5+/Sq3t7dyc3Mj19fX8uXLF7m6upLPnz/Lp0+f5PLyUi4uLuT8/Fw+fvwoHz58kLOzMzk9PZX379/Lu3fv5OTkRN7e3giCIAiCIAhir0HLMQBY8fZGq6LvkGMAALpVA IAliJP/kGMAAOQYACxBnPyHHAMAIMcAYAni5D/kGABA5P8BR4nZyzVz4HoAAAAASUVORK5CYII=[/img]

Of course this doesn't say anything about whether there's a design flaw, it's just pretty strong evidence that there is something different about the MAX than the NG.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:22 am
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Obviously the image didn't work, and it won't let me edit, apologies.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:26 am
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Originally Posted by wetrat0 View Post
Obviously the image didn't work, and it won't let me edit, apologies.
I swear I can see the Mona Lisa in that thing...........
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:26 am
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Originally Posted by wetrat0 View Post
Obviously the image didn't work,.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:31 am
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
But they fly the 739 not 8 MAX correct?
Correct, UA only flies the -9 at the moment.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:37 am
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Originally Posted by cmd320 View Post
Correct, UA only flies the -9 at the moment.
Thanks you for a sensible response.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:44 am
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Originally Posted by econometrics View Post


These are all UA MAX 9s. Some of which departed less than 50 min ago. So...




I stand corrected, as does the source. Mea culpa.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:52 am
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Let me remind all that the 737 Max in third world countries shares something else aside from pilots, and thats different operating conditions.

Remember that the MCAS auto-trim system depends on a single source of information of angle of attack to determine its input to the flight controls. If that information on angle of attack is erroneous, then the MCAS auto-trim system will tell the plane to do things it should not do, dive or climb when it should not.

In third world operating conditions that pitot tube maybe more likely to become contaminated with particulate matter that would obstruct it and lead to it not performing appropriately. We do know that in the Lion Air crash, the day before the plane had been performing erratically and had been referred to maintenance, we don't know what was done, should have been done, what Boeing recommends being done with MCAS auto-trim system knowing its a single point of failure system.

So if I was Boeing, I would be telling a Max operators that the information source for angle of attack in put to the MCAS auto-trim system to be check before and after every flight until Boeing comes up with a further fix.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:54 am
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IIRC most AA MAX flying is done out of MIA. Anywhere else that the jet is focused on? I currently see 15 airborne - all MIA connected.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:57 am
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Originally Posted by IADCAflyer View Post
IIRC most AA MAX flying is done out of MIA. Anywhere else that the jet is focused on?
All ex-MIA, yes. Save the LAX-DCA flight that was recently changed to a 7M8 (AA163).
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