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Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Mar 12, 2019, 12:03 pm
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.

To discuss the probable and limited return of the Boeing MAX to service with AA at the end of 2020 and increasingly in 2021, please see

American Planning 737 MAX Service Restoration (Limited Dec and 2021)

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?

13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through...
“Based on the latest guidance, the airline anticipates that the resumption of scheduled commercial service on American’s fleet of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft will occur (limited schedule Dec 2020).

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The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.

The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.

The best narrative and information available is probably the Aviation Herald’s Crash: Lion B38M near Jakarta on Oct 29th 2018, aircraft lost height and crashed into Java Sea, wrong AoA data, by Simon Hradecky, created Friday, Oct 25th 2019 13:35Z, last updated Friday, Oct 25th 2019 16:05Z. Link.

American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".

Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.

29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.

7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.

See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.

11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.

11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)

11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)

12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.

12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.

Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article

13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.

13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.

13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:

On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.

15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.

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Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Jan 6, 2020, 7:52 pm
  #781  
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Originally Posted by ijgordon
Actually, no, there are 737-700, -800, and -900s.
<head slap> Of course. Thanks. It’s possible they’d just drop the “MAX”, but I’m guessing they’ll add something else. They’ve used “Advanced” for 727s and legacy 737s with more advanced engines, “Super” for Electras and MD-80s. Maybe “737 Nova”, which would be great marketing in Latin America and Spain, where “no va” means “it won’t go”?
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 2:32 pm
  #782  
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Boeing is recommending pilots be required to complete simulator training as part of the recertification work. This is a reverse from Boeing’s position under the recently departed CEO Dennis Muilenburg, which had fought pilots’ recommendations for sim work.

There are only 37 MAX simulators in existence, so that will likely slow the return of the MAX to commercial service as well. (WN has three, three more on order.)

Link to CNBC story.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 6:16 pm
  #783  
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Originally Posted by JDiver
Boeing is recommending pilots be required to complete simulator training as part of the recertification work. This is a reverse from Boeing’s position under the recently departed CEO Dennis Muilenburg, which had fought pilots’ recommendations for sim work.

There are only 37 MAX simulators in existence, so that will likely slow the return of the MAX to commercial service as well. (WN has three, three more on order.)

Link to CNBC story.
Looks like Boeing may finally be learning its lesson. As they say, the lesson will be repeated until the lesson is learned.

This is most certainly a complete shift from not even a month ago.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 6:22 pm
  #784  
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Originally Posted by cmd320
Looks like Boeing may finally be learning its lesson. As they say, the lesson will be repeated until the lesson is learned.

This is most certainly a complete shift from not even a month ago.

Yeah, I'm going to be optimistic here and assume that it's a good-faith attempt by leadership to change the culture.

The cynical side of me is telling me this is just PR to make themselves look better (they want safety-first headlines) but I'm going to fight that feeling for now.

And, let's face it, it might be a bit of both, which is fine. Companies want to be seen doing the right thing -- there's nothing wrong with that if they are actually doing the right thing.
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Old Jan 7, 2020, 6:25 pm
  #785  
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Originally Posted by VegasGambler
Yeah, I'm going to be optimistic here and assume that it's a good-faith attempt by leadership to change the culture.

The cynical side of me is telling me this is just PR to make themselves look better (they want safety-first headlines) but I'm going to fight that feeling for now.

And, let's face it, it might be a bit of both, which is fine. Companies want to be seen doing the right thing -- there's nothing wrong with that if they are actually doing the right thing.
Agreed, either way it’s an upgrade as the party line had been ‘we’ve done everything right’ up until now.
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Old Jan 10, 2020, 2:49 am
  #786  
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this airplane is designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkeys. -- Boeing Employee

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/b...-messages.html

Other quotes:

I still haven’t been forgiven by God for the covering up I did last year

Would you put your family on a Max simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn’t (Response: No)

You can be away from an NG for 30 years and still be able to jump into a MAX? LOVE IT!! Followed by: This is a big part of the operating cost structure in our marketing decks.

I basically lied to the regulators (unknowingly)

I don't want to overreact, but... some people are going to jail here? And this can't be good for the return date (or the public's willingness to fly it)

Last edited by VegasGambler; Jan 10, 2020 at 2:54 am
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Old Jan 10, 2020, 6:42 am
  #787  
 
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Boeing 737 Max 'Designed by clowns'

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ernal-messages

I know this is not purely AA focused, but as an EP on AA it's very worrying to think this plane may come back at some point. When you read stories of "U.S. Regulators Mull Ordering Extra Simulator Training for Boeing 737 MAX Pilots", it does seem a possibility.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-reg...ts-11578253214
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Old Jan 10, 2020, 8:28 am
  #788  
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Originally Posted by stevej0531
https://www.theguardian.com/business...ernal-messages

I know this is not purely AA focused, but as an EP on AA it's very worrying to think this plane may come back at some point. When you read stories of "U.S. Regulators Mull Ordering Extra Simulator Training for Boeing 737 MAX Pilots", it does seem a possibility.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-reg...ts-11578253214
In a reversal after ex-CEO Muilenburg was terminated, Boeing itself is now recommending simulator training as part of MAX pilot qualification.

Boeing’s corporate culture seems to have taken a turn when HQ moved from Boeing design and manufacture country to Chicago, and further deteriorated to this nadir of concern for safety. The terminations culminating in Muilenburg’s, voluntary releases of information and data that are less than flattering to Boeing, the 180 degrees change to recommending simulator training (with only ~37 MAX simulators globally, that will also slow down the MAX’ return to scheduled flights) may be indications this terrible corporate culture has begun reversing. (If it hadn’t, Boeing reached its apogee a few years back and Airbus will eat its lunch.)
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Last edited by JDiver; Jan 10, 2020 at 8:36 am
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Old Jan 10, 2020, 8:44 am
  #789  
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Originally Posted by JDiver
(If it hadn’t, Boeing reached its apogee a few years back and Airbus will eat its lunch.)
The issue, at least in terms of the value of Boeing and its stock, is that Airbus production is sold out for years, and there's no viable alternative, so this would be a very long-term game. Unless the news gets so bad that airlines would rather forego capacity growth than buy Boeing (and that's a very high hurdle IMO). More likely scenario is Boeing has to discount more, which of course does have implications on the company value.
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Old Jan 10, 2020, 9:19 am
  #790  
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Originally Posted by ijgordon
The issue, at least in terms of the value of Boeing and its stock, is that Airbus production is sold out for years, and there's no viable alternative, so this would be a very long-term game. Unless the news gets so bad that airlines would rather forego capacity growth than buy Boeing (and that's a very high hurdle IMO). More likely scenario is Boeing has to discount more, which of course does have implications on the company value.
Airbus can solve its production issues by getting additional capital.

Possible sources:
-the PRC government
-Air Asia (via Tony, who was their launch customer in Tianjin; I actually had a face to face meeting with Tony about this)
-Delta
-Jetblue
-AF/KL
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Old Jan 10, 2020, 9:23 am
  #791  
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Perhaps some 757s can be reactivated and continue to fly until a proper replacement for the aircraft is produced by one of our woefully complacent aircraft manufacturers.
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Old Jan 10, 2020, 12:14 pm
  #792  
 
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Originally Posted by stevej0531
https://www.theguardian.com/business...ernal-messages

I know this is not purely AA focused, but as an EP on AA it's very worrying to think this plane may come back at some point. When you read stories of "U.S. Regulators Mull Ordering Extra Simulator Training for Boeing 737 MAX Pilots", it does seem a possibility.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-reg...ts-11578253214
i have the same concern. I hold elite status with AA, and I live in one of their hub cities. I haven’t experienced the bad service that I frequently read about, and I enjoy all of the nonstop flights; however, I’m considering booking away from AA for my 2020 and future travel as I have no intentions of flying on a MAX.

United and Southwest have said they will allow flight changes, at no fee, for anyone who doesn’t want to fly on the MAX. AA keeps saying that their policy on switching away from the MAX will be announced in a couple of weeks. AA has been saying “a couple of weeks” for several months now. It doesn’t seem like that there are a lot of options. Either you let customers switch away from the MAX for no fee, or you charge them.
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Old Jan 10, 2020, 3:57 pm
  #793  
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These are some of the fixes that the FAA has approved for the MAX so far-- I like it!



Source: https://twistedsifter.com/2010/07/ai...om-costa-rica/
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Last edited by nk15; Jan 10, 2020 at 4:05 pm
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Old Jan 10, 2020, 4:08 pm
  #794  
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As an engineer, this article really resonates with me: https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...sed-by-monkeys

It contains a lot more quotes (and context) from the internal emails and messages.

Some are clearly just frustrated employees letting off steam (ie the clowns/monkeys quote, which is funny but honestly not really an uncommon type of statement to make). But there are definitely more disturbing things here. It does look like senior management was pushing to have some facts hidden from the FAA.

My biggest question is, is the FAA actually able to do their job effectively? Or have we gotten to the point that planes are so complicated that no one at the FAA understands what is going on and they basically have to take the word of the senior engineers at the company that makes them? Is the "dogs watching TV" quote accurate?

And I don't mean to pick on the FAA; this is a problem with other regulatory agencies as well. There was talk of making the Indian regulators "feel stupid" for even suggesting that simulator training be required. But of course most agencies will follow the lead of the FAA so it's most important that they get it right.

This has probably moved away from being AA-specific; this is just the only thread where real discussion in happening (on most other threads anything that is critical of the MAX is just deleted due to being "off topic") But if people refuse to fly this plane (or if the regulators refuse to approve it, or if congress blocks it somehow), the effect on AA will be significant. So it's at least tangentially on-topic
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Old Jan 10, 2020, 4:49 pm
  #795  
 
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What’s going on. Plane was to return to service this month now they are saying this summer. What is taking Boeing so long to fix this mess. No
aircraft has ever been grounded this long.

Last edited by buckeyefanflyer; Jan 11, 2020 at 4:46 pm
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