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Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Mar 12, 2019, 12:03 pm
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.

To discuss the probable and limited return of the Boeing MAX to service with AA at the end of 2020 and increasingly in 2021, please see

American Planning 737 MAX Service Restoration (Limited Dec and 2021)

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?

13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through...
“Based on the latest guidance, the airline anticipates that the resumption of scheduled commercial service on American’s fleet of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft will occur (limited schedule Dec 2020).

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The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.

The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.

The best narrative and information available is probably the Aviation Herald’s Crash: Lion B38M near Jakarta on Oct 29th 2018, aircraft lost height and crashed into Java Sea, wrong AoA data, by Simon Hradecky, created Friday, Oct 25th 2019 13:35Z, last updated Friday, Oct 25th 2019 16:05Z. Link.

American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".

Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.

29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.

7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.

See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.

11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.

11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)

11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)

12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.

12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.

Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article

13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.

13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.

13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:

On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.

15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.

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Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Mar 17, 2019, 9:41 pm
  #436  
 
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Originally Posted by lobo411
Forget about that...it'll never happen. Boeing had to choose between redesigning the 737 using 787 technology or simply re-engining the 737 around 15 years ago. Airbus had the same choice to make, and Airbus went with re-engining the A320, which became the A320neo. That forced Boeing's hand...a new plane was out of the question because Airbus would have picked Boeing clean in the 15 years it would have taken to bring a new design to market.

The 737-MAX is here to stay and you can expect it to be in the skies for the next 25-40 years.
OK - what if we lose a 3rd one or even a 4th one? Would the aircraft then be permanently grounded and production permanently stopped?

Last edited by cova; Mar 17, 2019 at 9:47 pm
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Old Mar 17, 2019, 9:59 pm
  #437  
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Originally Posted by cova
OK - what if we lose a 3rd one or even a 4th one? Would the aircraft then be permanently grounded and production permanently stopped?
Only if the appropriate authorities decided that it could not be fixed.
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Old Mar 17, 2019, 10:32 pm
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Originally Posted by cova
OK - what if we lose a 3rd one or even a 4th one? Would the aircraft then be permanently grounded and production permanently stopped?
I assume you mean if we lose a 3rd or a 4th one due to the same cause. It's worth mentioning that we don't even know why the first one went down, let alone the second. The FAA requires so much testing (many, many years' worth) before an aircraft design sees its first passenger, so while I'm not an expert, I'd bet dollars to a donuts that no certified design has ever had its licenses permanently revoked. What we have with the MAX, assuming that our *guesses* about the cause are correct, is a glitch that will be easily fixed once the necessary regulatory processes are performed.

It just so happens that the story of Qantas Flight 72 is on Air Disasters right now. This was an Airbus A330 that suffered several violent, uncommanded plunges resulting in more than 100 passenger injuries. The cause? Faulty data from the Angle of Attack sensors caused the flight computer to go haywire. There was no fix...just a set of recovery procedures in the event of another failure, and a second Qantas flight suffered the same failure two months later. There are currently 2,000 A330/A340s in service right now with this design flaw. Sound familiar?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qantas_Flight_72

Last edited by lobo411; Mar 17, 2019 at 10:40 pm
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Old Mar 17, 2019, 10:56 pm
  #439  
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More comedy and tragedy on this issue here:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/tr...cid=spartanntp

Best line: "Trump also told officials that the Boeing 737 “sucked” and wasn’t as good as the Boeing 757 he owns as a personal jet."

Let's hope he doesn't ground the whole 737 line, lol...

Last edited by nk15; Mar 17, 2019 at 11:59 pm
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Old Mar 18, 2019, 6:46 am
  #440  
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Originally Posted by lobo411
Forget about that...it'll never happen. Boeing had to choose between redesigning the 737 using 787 technology or simply re-engining the 737 around 15 years ago. Airbus had the same choice to make, and Airbus went with re-engining the A320, which became the A320neo. That forced Boeing's hand...a new plane was out of the question because Airbus would have picked Boeing clean in the 15 years it would have taken to bring a new design to market.

The 737-MAX is here to stay and you can expect it to be in the skies for the next 25-40 years.
At the current rate, in 40 years time they will have all crashed.
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Old Mar 18, 2019, 8:56 am
  #441  
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Originally Posted by cmd320
At the current rate, in 40 years time they will have all crashed.
But even if no more MAX aircraft were to be built, how difficult would it be to take an existing 737-800 (NG) and change it to a MAX 8 by swapping the engines, changing the software, making the lavatories smaller (reconfiguring the interior), etc. The winglets are different, but that's an easy change if different wings aren't needed. Also, the tail is different, so that might be the most substantial change that would be necessary to the frame. I'm not suggesting that anyone would do this or that it would be a sensible way to make a MAX 8, but I'm curious in light of all the discussions about re-using old designs to save time and money.
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Old Mar 18, 2019, 9:36 am
  #442  
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Originally Posted by lobo411
Forget about that...it'll never happen. Boeing had to choose between redesigning the 737 using 787 technology or simply re-engining the 737 around 15 years ago. Airbus had the same choice to make, and Airbus went with re-engining the A320, which became the A320neo. That forced Boeing's hand...a new plane was out of the question because Airbus would have picked Boeing clean in the 15 years it would have taken to bring a new design to market.

The 737-MAX is here to stay and you can expect it to be in the skies for the next 25-40 years.
Yep.

Other interesting sources to read and consider:

Link to Interesting article: “Can Boeing Trust Pilots?
by Mac McClellan, 11 March 2019, AirFacts.

The major issue isn’t fly by wire or pilot expectations to intervene when necessary, it’s that Boeing didn’t build triple redundancy into the 737 MAX system, according to the writer.

Captain “Sully” Sullenberger’s trenchant comment shown above that (though permissible under ICAO) a 200 hours SIC / copilot is sufficiently experienced to fly in the cockpit of a commercial passenger plane. (What happens if the senior pilot becomes incapacitated during flight? I’ve had this happen - and if the First Officer had not been sufficiently competent to handle a passenger aircraft under all circumstances, we’d probably have been an item in the newspapers reading how ~60 died in a DC-6B crash in the Sierra Madre.
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Old Mar 18, 2019, 9:52 am
  #443  
 
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
But even if no more MAX aircraft were to be built, how difficult would it be to take an existing 737-800 (NG) and change it to a MAX 8 by swapping the engines, changing the software, making the lavatories smaller (reconfiguring the interior), ...
Very difficult to impossible.

The issue is that changing the engines changes the flight characteristics in such a way that it can be unstable. Thus the MAX engines (and MCAS and landing gear) would need to be certified. That is basically never going to happen if the MAX does not resume production as there is simply not enough revenue involved in this type conversion to cover the huge cost.

Now, makiing the bathrooms smaller, yeah. that can be done.
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Old Mar 18, 2019, 10:55 am
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Old Mar 18, 2019, 11:03 am
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Originally Posted by lobo411
I assume you mean if we lose a 3rd or a 4th one due to the same cause. It's worth mentioning that we don't even know why the first one went down, let alone the second. The FAA requires so much testing (many, many years' worth) before an aircraft design sees its first passenger, so while I'm not an expert, I'd bet dollars to a donuts that no certified design has ever had its licenses permanently revoked. What we have with the MAX, assuming that our *guesses* about the cause are correct, is a glitch that will be easily fixed once the necessary regulatory processes are performed.

It just so happens that the story of Qantas Flight 72 is on Air Disasters right now. This was an Airbus A330 that suffered several violent, uncommanded plunges resulting in more than 100 passenger injuries. The cause? Faulty data from the Angle of Attack sensors caused the flight computer to go haywire. There was no fix...just a set of recovery procedures in the event of another failure, and a second Qantas flight suffered the same failure two months later. There are currently 2,000 A330/A340s in service right now with this design flaw. Sound familiar?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qantas_Flight_72
I had the exact same thought watching Air Disasters last night as well. I didn't understand why there were 3 redundant systems - shouldn't #1 have been switched off and that would have eliminated the problem?
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Old Mar 18, 2019, 11:21 am
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One of the overlooked issues here is the need for Boeing to release these planes without requiring significant pilot retraining. This issue was at the heart of the Kegworth crash 30 years ago (737-400) and it is depressing to see the same commercial pressures causing problems again. The challenge is that they want a new fuel-efificient version with new software, but they don't want to have to train pilots in how to fly it (because that would make it uneconomic for their customers).
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Old Mar 18, 2019, 11:42 am
  #447  
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Originally Posted by SeattleDavid
One of the overlooked issues here is the need for Boeing to release these planes without requiring significant pilot retraining. This issue was at the heart of the Kegworth crash 30 years ago (737-400) and it is depressing to see the same commercial pressures causing problems again. The challenge is that they want a new fuel-efificient version with new software, but they don't want to have to train pilots in how to fly it (because that would make it uneconomic for their customers).
There’s not that much training required for a 737- pilot to become certified in a new type. In this instance, pilots pretty much do what they did in the -800. It’s the lack of transparency or triple redundancy that’s a problem. Heck, 757 and 767 pilots are all cross certified to fly either aircraft, iirc, and it can be argued there are greater differences between those two than among the 737 family of aircraft. It takes just a few hours to become type qualified among related aircraft.

Though the pitch system in the MAX is somewhat new, the pilot actions after a failure are exactly the same as would be for a runaway trim in any 737 built since the 1960s. As pilots we really don’t need to know why the trim is running away, but we must know, and practice, how to disable it.

-Link to Interesting article: “Can Boeing Trust Pilots? by Mac McClellan, 11 March 2019, AirFacts.
Not letting pilots know the MCAS system allows correction but then kicks in again is a problem.

Other potential problems include the FAA outsource critical parts of the testing and certification decision making to the very manufacturers they’re supposed to be evaluating critically, under a policy implemented ten years ago.

“FAA employees warned as early as seven years ago that Boeing Co. had too much sway over safety approvals of new aircraft, prompting an investigation by Department of Transportation auditors who confirmed the agency hadn’t done enough to “hold Boeing accountable.”

Link to Bloomberg article “Boeing Had Too Much Sway in Vetting Own Jets, FAA Was Told”, By Peter Robison and Alan Levin, March 17, 2019, 7:31 PM PDT, Updated on March 18, 2019, 2:22 AM PDT

A Grand Jury and US Department of Justice are also investigating. Link to Wall Street Journal article.

Link to Wall Street Journal article “Prosecutors, Transportation Department Scrutinize Development of Boeing’s 737 MAX; A grand jury’s subpoena seeks broad documents related to the jetliner”, by By Andrew Tangel, Andy Pasztor and Robert Wall, Updated March 18, 2019 11:38 a.m. ET
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Old Mar 18, 2019, 5:15 pm
  #448  
 
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My concern is that we were headed in the direction of self flying planes (like cars), but it appears the MAX shouldn't be using automated flight controls and needs to be flown by highly skilled pilots that can take evasive actions, when the automated systems fail.

So what would the software fix be - eliminate MCAS and only fly the aircraft manually (for the next 45 years)? I can only assume that a software fix would be to soften the MCAS control and the extreme changes it can make - but does that really fix the problem? Is MCAS the problem (which can be removed) or the flight characteristics which cause the problem in the first place.
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Old Mar 18, 2019, 6:01 pm
  #449  
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Originally Posted by cova
My concern is that we were headed in the direction of self flying planes (like cars), but it appears the MAX shouldn't be using automated flight controls and needs to be flown by highly skilled pilots that can take evasive actions, when the automated systems fail.

So what would the software fix be - eliminate MCAS and only fly the aircraft manually (for the next 45 years)? I can only assume that a software fix would be to soften the MCAS control and the extreme changes it can make - but does that really fix the problem? Is MCAS the problem (which can be removed) or the flight characteristics which cause the problem in the first place.
The fix is you develop a new narrobody plane rather than asking the 737 to do missions 6x longer than it was originally envisioned to do. You could make it a little bigger, maybe higher off the ground to accommodate a larger, more efficient and powerful engine. You give it a greater range and modern, more powerful wings. Make it a really easy airplane to fly with a nice modern glass cockpit. And call it... idk... maybe a 757? Oh wait... this was done 30 years ago. Not sure why Boeing decided to regress to the 1960s plane, for the 4th time.
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Old Mar 18, 2019, 6:10 pm
  #450  
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Originally Posted by cova
My concern is that we were headed in the direction of self flying planes (like cars), but it appears the MAX shouldn't be using automated flight controls and needs to be flown by highly skilled pilots that can take evasive actions, when the automated systems fail.

So what would the software fix be - eliminate MCAS and only fly the aircraft manually (for the next 45 years)? I can only assume that a software fix would be to soften the MCAS control and the extreme changes it can make - but does that really fix the problem? Is MCAS the problem (which can be removed) or the flight characteristics which cause the problem in the first place.
The choices right now are either actual stall and straight nosedive to the ground (without MCAS), or fake stall during climb leading to a hopeless fight with automation and a rollercoaster nosedive to the ground (with MCAS). Choose your own adventure.
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