Why does AA run F to HKG but not Japan?

Old Jun 29, 18, 8:15 am
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Why does AA run F to HKG but not Japan?

This may be an elementary question, but it makes little sense to me that AA runs F to Hong Kong and not Japan (or elsewhere in Asia for that matter).

JL seems to have demonstrated steady demand for F between Japan and the US, much like CX has to/from HK, so why would AA choose not to take advantage of this?

Is it simply a matter of AA deemphasizing longhaul F overall and having to make do with a limited number of 777-300s (only enough to reliably run the plane on a couple of routes)? Or, is there a deeper commercial reason I’m overlooking?

If you had to predict, would you say AA is more likely to increase TPAC F offerings, decrease, or not change them at all in the short to mid term?
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Old Jun 29, 18, 8:19 am
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good question... maybe because it's AA has a JV with JAL? I know AA codeshares F on all JL flights to the US.

also, maybe it's because nobody in their right mind would book AA F over JL F if the price is the same? haha...
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Old Jun 29, 18, 8:34 am
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That’s a good point. Under the Joint Business Venture AA and JL share - there’s no need for AA to offer it’s so-so Flagship First product to Japan. And AA has a mere twenty aircraft (777-323ER / 77W) aircraft with Flagship First, so they have to be judicious on which routes they deploy these on. You can bet your bippie AA wants to sell those F chairs and not fill them with uograders.
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Old Jun 29, 18, 8:41 am
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Originally Posted by mcrw00 View Post
If you had to predict, would you say AA is more likely to increase TPAC F offerings, decrease, or not change them at all in the short to mid term?
Look at where the 77Ws are deployed. The last annual report shows no more on order. I don't see them reducing 77Ws to LHR, GIG, etc. to use them on NRT, PVG, ICN, SYD...
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Old Jun 29, 18, 8:46 am
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The JV with JL definitely explains ORD and LAX. For DFW, I guess they've analyzed the market and determined that there is not sufficient demand for an F product between DFW-NRT (hence the reason that neither AA nor JL offer it).
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Old Jun 29, 18, 8:52 am
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Frequency and load, IMO.

AA has 5x daily to TYO. (then add in the codeshares with JL... another 4?)

HKG is a cargo hub... 77W carries more cargo. And with only 1x daily DFW/LAX, the more on the plane in J/Y the better.

So I don't think it's a decision to avoid F seats to TYO. It's ALL about optimizing on the route-planning for AA. They have made this very clear in recent statements.
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Old Jun 29, 18, 8:54 am
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Originally Posted by econometrics View Post
Frequency and load, IMO.

AA has 5x daily to TYO. (then add in the codeshares with JL... another 4?)

HKG is a cargo hub... 77W carries more cargo. And with only 1x daily DFW/LAX, the more on the plane in J/Y the better.

So I don't think it's a decision to avoid F seats to TYO. It's ALL about optimizing on the route-planning for AA. They have made this very clear in recent statements.
Interesting. In this case, if AA 77W F is really as much of an "upgrade class"/non-rev club as it seems to be, it would not at all be surprising if the 77Ws were eventually retrofitted to convert F into more J.
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Old Jun 29, 18, 8:56 am
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Originally Posted by mcrw00 View Post
Interesting. In this case, if AA 77W F is really as much of an "upgrade class"/non-rev club as it seems to be, it would not at all be surprising if the 77Ws were eventually retrofitted to convert F into more J.
I doubt it, because they still get use out of F to routes they dominate on - South America and LHR.
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Old Jun 29, 18, 8:59 am
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Originally Posted by econometrics View Post
I doubt it, because they still get use out of F to routes they dominate on - South America and LHR.
Ah, I'll admit I tend to extrapolate TPAC trends to the entire network, which doesn't always work.
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Old Jun 29, 18, 9:05 am
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Originally Posted by mcrw00 View Post
Ah, I'll admit I tend to extrapolate TPAC trends to the entire network, which doesn't always work.
Well, CASM on the 77W is lower vs. the 772, also. When you look at 14-16h flights, it adds up.

I'm not sure of the CASM on the 789, but we know it's a more efficient AC. Probably why AA put a 789 on LAX-SYD and took away the 77W.
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Old Jun 29, 18, 10:25 am
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Probably because they prefer the Dreamliner on the Japan routes and OW customers who want an F cabin should be taking JAL anyway for the superior cabin.
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Old Jun 29, 18, 11:12 am
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Originally Posted by 3Cforme View Post
Look at where the 77Ws are deployed. The last annual report shows no more on order. I don't see them reducing 77Ws to LHR, GIG, etc. to use them on NRT, PVG, ICN, SYD...
Does AA fly the 77W to GIG? Perhaps you meant GRU. Although I’d be excited if they’ve started it to GIG.
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Old Jun 29, 18, 11:32 am
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Originally Posted by AlwaysSunnyInORD View Post


Does AA fly the 77W to GIG? Perhaps you meant GRU. Although I’d be excited if they’ve started it to GIG.
They do not fly it to GIG, but to GRU.

It's rumored AA will end JFK-GIG, so don't get your hopes up on seeing a 77W on the MIA-GIG route anytime soon.
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Old Jun 29, 18, 8:41 pm
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The TYO market for F is mainly Japan point of sale. These companies that have a F policy also have a "fly a japanese carrier when they can" policy. Given a choice - they will choose JAL F or ANA F before AA F. Some of it is cultural - the Japanese prefer to speak their own language - and every JAL or ANA FA will speak Japanese which is not the same on AA. I am waiting to see when JL will upgauge their DFW flight to an aircraft with F. With Toyota moving their US headquarters from LA to Dallas area there will likely be demand for JL F.

Aircraft availability is another consideration. 77W - the only international F aircraft (ignoring the 321T) are limited in numbers and hubs. ORD which JAL and ANA send F flights from NRT is a 787 only station for AA. DFW has 2x 772s from NRT and recently got a JL flight. No competition here - I could see a reduction to 1x77W vs 2x772 if they have the spare 77W, but the 2x daily service opens up more options for connections. LAX is split with both HND and NRT flights on AA metal and were downgauged from 772s to 789s. 77Ws are needed for HKG due to cargo capacity.
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Old Jun 30, 18, 2:18 am
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Originally Posted by econometrics View Post
Well, CASM on the 77W is lower vs. the 772, also. When you look at 14-16h flights, it adds up.

I'm not sure of the CASM on the 789, but we know it's a more efficient AC. Probably why AA put a 789 on LAX-SYD and took away the 77W.
AA pulled the 77W from SYD when the DOT blocked the antitrust immunity application for a JBV for Qantas and AA (also the reason MIA-LAX lost the 77W). They can use it as a carrot that if the JBV goes through capacity would go up for that market (and that AA might start additional service, like to MEL or BNE for instance; and that QF might start expanding service to the US again).
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