enviroian

With few exceptions, redeeming C space at booking is no more. A lot has changed in 1 year.

flyingeph12

Certainly securing an upgrade at booking has become much more difficult, but if you are super flexible, it is not impossible. For example, a quick search reveals that there is C space on both LAX-LHR flights on March 11




Edit: Oh my goodness, there's even C space on the return!

hawkfan7314

JJeffrey

The weeks of Thanksgiving/Xmas/New Years can be upgrade gold mines. Much less elite travel combined with virtually non existent paid business travel = great upgrade chances, even for GLD, PLT, etc. and on routes that would normally be very tough.

bcm0830

I'm still waiting to clear LHR-LAX for Jan. 1. There are 20 seats, and now inside 72 hrs. I guess at this point, their new formula is clearing us at 30 hrs out, even when it's very open.

gracett1

I am flying on AA997 DFW - EZE on Friday, 4 Jan 2019. I am EXP with approx. $17K EQD's. I have been waitlisted with SWU's for over 8 months. I am also flying SCL - DFW on 20 Jan, however, J is full and that equip is a 789. J cabin looks to have a lot of availability on 4 Jan for the AA 997 flight as of now. However, I am well aware of how quickly this can change. As I have had SWU's not clear earlier this year on DFW-HKG. and 3 other domestic flights did not clear as well for upgrades.

Hoping for my 2 SWU's to clear for myself and spouse. (we are both AA EXP's). SWU;s requested both directions, however, fear only hope is the 997 flight on 4 Jan (772 equip.).

Any thoughts appreciated.

uscjeff

I am staring at J3 on PVG-LAX on 1/1 and starting to get nervous...

domingogo

Just cleared on this leg on the 27th. Currently plat with +$6K EQD. Cleared around 14h in advance after calling AA 4 times. There were around 6 J's left 72h before departure and then I assume quite a few upgrades cleared since only 2 J's were available 24h before the flight.
The seats are not as comfy as for example in the 788 but it's still great to be able to lay down and arrive rested considering it's a red-eye flight.

Fingers crossed your SWU will clear. If you have never been to BA, try to leave the plane asap and go through customs as there are multiple international flights landing at the same time and sometimes it can take up to an hour.

JJeffrey

Yep, but there's nothing new about that formula unfortunately.

bcm0830

For others traveling TATL and using SWUs over the holidays, are you also getting cleared around 30 hrs out when there are 7+ seats in J? I'm now at 37 hrs out, still 20 seats in J, and still waiting for LHR>LAX Jan. 1.

Stripe

SWU upgrades on either of those flights will be a challenge, especially the ORD route, which regularly sells out in business. Seeing many empty J seats over 100 days out is of no use in predicting upgrade success.

On the positive side, DFW-FCO will be running by then, which may relieve some of the overall demand pressure to FCO and improve your chances. That's a complete guess, however.

When I first made EXP about 9 years ago we not only got more SWUs (8) but they were frequently confirmable in advance. That is all a distant memory. Now we get 4 and often find them hard to use even on domestic flights.

bcm0830

Update...my UG cleared sometime between 1a and 8a overnight, so ~30 hours out.

uscjeff

Data point - now down to J1 on my flight 1/1 PVG-LAX. 30k EQD EXP. Basically have resigned myself to be ready to have a late one tonight not expecting to get it so can sleep regardless on way home. Have bulkhead PE at least so soften the blow

JJeffrey

Looking at your flight, it is down to J1, however it's down to Y1 as well and the business seatmap still shows lots of open seats. Since it's New Year's Day, I'd say there's a decent chance that Y is just oversold, have had scenarios like this happen several times over the years. I'd be willing to bet you'll have a nice surprise over the next 12 hrs, fingers crossed!

FleyeSkyHigh

I second what JJeffrey said. I have noticed around the holidays where economy seats are more likely to sell than business that AA revenue management algorithms now reduce J (and also W) inventory in hopes of selling and overselling coach. This gives AA a buffer so in the likely event they oversell Y (esp to leisure travelers) they have room to process upgrades into W and J (SWU or OP-UP). AA182 PVG-LAX on 01JAN is most likely significantly oversold in economy so I can almost tell with certainty that the RM computer has held back both J and W seats to provide a cushion as to not have to bump trans pacific passengers. And while bumping economy passengers certainly can happen U.S. airlines really don't like to do so on long haul international routes. Further, AA hates having an oversold J cabin so when you put all that together it means they reduce the overall number of J seats in order to sell additional coach fares which is a more likely possibility especially during non-business travel period.

Generally speaking seat maps are not a reliable indication of true cabin sell numbers but in these cases they are indicative. The other better indication that both J and W space has been held back is that J=R=D=I (which is 1 at the time of this post) and that W=P (which is 4). Generally J business inventory will be a little higher than D and almost always more than I. But when they restrict J to provide an oversell buffer than they are more likely to be equal as the airline is willing to sell business seats at a discount because it's really not their last seat. Same analysis for premium economy applies. W normally will be more than P.

My guess is that this flight is oversold in economy by at least 10 passengers and perhaps as much as 20 or more. I would guess that they have held an additional 4-6 J seats and 8-10 W seats. Just guesses but I have been doing this a while and worked in the industry.