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2017 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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Old May 22, 2017, 6:21 am
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Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing

NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
    2. Executive Platinum
    3. Platinum Pro
    4. Platinum
    5. Gold
  • Upgrade type
    1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
    2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
    3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
  • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months

  • Booking class

  • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

U]Link[/U] to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 22 May 2017 by JDiver
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2017 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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Old Jan 15, 2017, 11:17 am
  #76  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP / LT PLT / 3MM, Marriott LT Gold
Posts: 35,389
Originally Posted by Lavezzi
Slightly confused. I have a flight tonight from ORD to LGA and it's currently J7 and C3. I am EXP so I phoned earlier this morning and was told that they have around 10 seats available that they are holding to be cleared through by the system. At this point why the hell are they not releasing them?
It seems R inventory is being released only 4-6 hours before departure. Of course it's been only 4 days since the new fare codes took effect.
vasantn is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2017, 11:20 am
  #77  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by vasantn
If it were me, I would go with AA100.
Thanks, that's what I was leaning towards too.
econometrics is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2017, 2:12 pm
  #78  
 
Join Date: May 1999
Posts: 1,627
Completely disappointed in the new AA. My last three flights this year have had 6, 3, and 10 first class seats available at the gate, and as an Exec Platinum I wasn't upgraded until the gate, and they apparently now use a seat assignment algorithm of the seat you least prefer. They have stopped checking IDs of active military personnel during boarding, so anyone can now board with first class. About half the tickets I buy are first class, and the rest are expensive economy seats. And I found out they just devalued my lifetime 2 million miles by demoting me from the second level of frequent flyer status to the fourth level. Time to take a look at returning to United.
starflyer is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2017, 2:20 pm
  #79  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: WAS/TYO
Programs: UA 1K, AA EXP (3MM), DL PM, BONVOY TITANIUM, HYATT GLOBALIST, HILTON DIAMOND, IHG DIAMOND AMB, et al
Posts: 5,913
Originally Posted by starflyer
... as an Exec Platinum I wasn't upgraded until the gate, and they apparently now use a seat assignment algorithm of the seat you least prefer...
Really? The system has always seemed to automatically clear gate upgrades into all remaining F seats from aft to forward based on upgrade list priority (although the GA can intervene to upgrade into specific seats, if necessary). I have not noticed any recent changes for upgrade seat assignments.

If you're expecting a specific seat assignment in F, I would recommend you purchase it ahead of time. Or, ask the GA before the upgrades are processed at the gate. It's really hard to be frustrated on seat assignment when you're ultimately getting upgraded into a class of service you didn't originally pay for. Just my thoughts.

-FlyerBeek
FlyerBeek is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2017, 2:31 pm
  #80  
 
Join Date: May 1999
Posts: 1,627
Originally Posted by FlyerBeek
Really? The system has always seemed to automatically clear gate upgrades into all remaining F seats from aft to forward based on upgrade list priority (although the GA can intervene to upgrade into specific seats, if necessary). I have not noticed any recent changes for upgrade seat assignments.

If you're expecting a specific seat assignment in F, I would recommend you purchase it ahead of time. Or, ask the GA before the upgrades are processed at the gate. It's really hard to be frustrated on seat assignment when you're ultimately getting upgraded into a class of service you didn't originally pay for. Just my thoughts.

-FlyerBeek
I only have a few data points, so maybe I've just been near the bottom of the upgrade list this year, but so far my experience hasn't been good.
starflyer is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2017, 2:38 pm
  #81  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,586
Delete - reading comprehension problem.
bse118 is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2017, 3:17 pm
  #82  
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 5
We bought economy but are hoping to accrue 25k points (one of us has it, one doesn't) in the next two months. Chances of us being able to get to business class on 11/11/2017 AA 199 MXP to JFK 10am?
gooternut is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2017, 3:41 pm
  #83  
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP / LT PLT / 3MM, Marriott LT Gold
Posts: 35,389
Originally Posted by gooternut
We bought economy but are hoping to accrue 25k points (one of us has it, one doesn't) in the next two months. Chances of us being able to get to business class on 11/11/2017 AA 199 MXP to JFK 10am?
Do you seriously think anyone can predict your chances 10 months out?
vasantn is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2017, 6:35 pm
  #84  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,976
Originally Posted by vasantn
Do you seriously think anyone can predict your chances 10 months out?
Well if there are a number of seats taken this far out, you could predict that the chances would be poor. In this case, AA199 on 11/11 has exactly two seats assigned on the whole aircraft, which I assume are his, so it's impossible to predict.

I first thought: why would one choose 40 H&J when you have the pick of the whole plane? But if you look closely, only three of the seat pairs along the side of the 767 are available to a non-elite who doesn't want to shell out extra cash. That's pretty bad.
Stripe is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2017, 7:51 pm
  #85  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 866
Originally Posted by Stripe
But if you look closely, only three of the seat pairs along the side of the 767 are available to a non-elite who doesn't want to shell out extra cash. That's pretty bad.
Yeah...noticed this when making a booking for a non-status-holding colleague. All windows/aisles on the window side of the A330s we were one were blocked out aside from the ones for $$. Only free seats were in the undesirable middle of the plane. Must really stink being a kettle on AA these days.
ACA321 is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2017, 10:00 pm
  #86  
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Chicago
Programs: United 1k, Hyatt Globalist, Marriott Plat
Posts: 231
Originally Posted by vasantn
It seems R inventory is being released only 4-6 hours before departure. Of course it's been only 4 days since the new fare codes took effect.
Didn't clear until 50 minutes before takeoff. At that stage I wasn't able to change my seat as the iOS App kept displaying the Economy seat plan. Gave up after trying for a few minutes and then it locked up anyway.
Lavezzi is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2017, 6:27 pm
  #87  
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Amb Elite & LT Titanium, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,230
Another data point.

Return NRT-DFW. Since day we booked shows 20+ unoccupied seats, J7 C0 (of course). 24 hours before departure upgrades clear, with a bunch of others but still J7. Day of departure, get EF alert that C inventory is available t-4/5 hrs. T-1hr showing C3, J7.

I'm not saying anything new here, but rev mgmt has to know that they are not selling those 20 seats in the last couple of weeks. Getting a confirmed upgrade in advance was part of the benefit, but now they seem to be treating them like domestic upgrades.

At least the good news is we only have to try to use 4 of them now.
deac83 is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2017, 3:49 am
  #88  
 
Join Date: May 2003
Programs: UA1k; Bonvoy Titanium; Hilton Gold; IHG Gold; AA Plat Pro
Posts: 1,794
Wondering how easy / difficult is to clear UG to business on the LAX-GRU and other Brazil flights? Is there any C space seen with reasonable frequency?
1k650 is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2017, 8:38 pm
  #89  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: WAS/TYO
Programs: UA 1K, AA EXP (3MM), DL PM, BONVOY TITANIUM, HYATT GLOBALIST, HILTON DIAMOND, IHG DIAMOND AMB, et al
Posts: 5,913
Originally Posted by 1k650
Wondering how easy / difficult is to clear UG to business on the LAX-GRU and other Brazil flights? Is there any C space seen with reasonable frequency?
This route has gotten a little bit easier since switching aircraft back to a 772 from a 788. I'm still at 100% as an EXP (albeit with only 4 samples). As with any AA international flight, C space is only opening in the days immediately before departure (assuming there's ample space in J - if not it will clear day of departure). Looking at the current cabin loads for your potential travel dates will provide the best likelihood of upgrade potential.

-FlyerBeek
FlyerBeek is offline  
Old Jan 19, 2017, 4:16 am
  #90  
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: IAD/DCA/BWI
Programs: AA Executive Platinum
Posts: 581
Originally Posted by starflyer
I only have a few data points, so maybe I've just been near the bottom of the upgrade list this year, but so far my experience hasn't been good.
I noticed something like this on both of my flights yesterday. Upgrades cleared before the agents got to the gate (like at T-90 mins) seemed to be seated aft-first, while the upgrades cleared by the gate agents in both cases started at 1A and went L-R, forward-aft. With only two data points that could have been purely a coincidence, but with 8 and 12 seats to clear respectively (because it looked like almost nothing was cleared in advance), each person called up one at a time, and plenty of time to watch the list and seat map, I was able to watch much more closely than I normally do.
BWISkyGuy is offline  


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