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Speculation: Brexit Effect on AA-BA???

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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 1:17 pm
  #16  
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Originally Posted by Often1
I would not make any assumptions about anything at this stage. How the UK chooses to physically configure LHR to handle traffic originating in the EU, transiting the UK and destined for the US, has any number of permutations.
Why would any one have to assume anything?

The airport is already set up to handle this, since UK is not a schengen country.

For non-UK connections, everybody already goes through security and there is no passport control regardless of origin.

For connections within UK or entering the UK, there is passport control and two lines: one line for EU/UK and another one for non-EU.
If anything, current EU pax would go to the old Non-EU lines where we Americans line up.

Nothing to reconfigure "physically"?
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 1:26 pm
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Wasn't a fan of BA before Brexit and if AAs stock continues to plunge maybe an AAexit from BA could occur.
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 2:28 pm
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Originally Posted by daru1
"American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) is likely to be hit harder than any other U.S airline following the decision by U.K voters to leave the European Union, and the stock now presents greater short term risk versus its U.S airline peers. 6.2% of American Airlines capacity touches the United Kingdom and the airline offers 25 daily departures to London along with flights to Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh, and Glasgow. By comparison, United Airlines sees 5.3% of its capacity touch the UK and Delta sees 2.7% touch the UK."
That has to be international capacity only right? No way that 6.2% of AA's total capacity touches the UK.
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 2:31 pm
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Originally Posted by AA100k
Wasn't a fan of BA before Brexit and if AAs stock continues to plunge maybe an AAexit from BA could occur.
That would be disastrious for AA and make them a non-player worldwide. They cant survive on an ATI/JV with just AY to/thru Europe.

Like another poster said, the biggest issue will be the Open Skies arrangement. Will a non-EU company (IAG) be able to own EU and non-EU airlines at 100%. What will the new agreements take shape as (since ALL air service agreements will need to be renegotiated).

While not 100% the same, if a state in the US decided to secede, there would be massive confusion and problems. This isnt too far from what's happening here.
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 2:35 pm
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Originally Posted by AA100k
Wasn't a fan of BA before Brexit and if AAs stock continues to plunge maybe an AAexit from BA could occur.
Remember that BA is owned by IAG, a Spanish-based company that also owns Iberia and now/soon also Aer Lingus. EI will also be added to the AA/BA/IB JV/ATI. So *IF* LHR connections become less appealing in the future, AA can move some capacity to DUB or MAD (both of them EU cities) and IAG could doe similarly.
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 2:36 pm
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[QUOTE=imapilotaz;26826452]That would be disastrious for AA and make them a non-player worldwide. They cant survive on an ATI/JV with just AY to/thru Europe.

Like another poster said, the biggest issue will be the Open Skies arrangement. Will a non-EU company (IAG) be able to own EU and non-EU airlines at 100%. What will the new agreements take shape as (since ALL air service agreements will need to be renegotiated).

While not 100% the same, if a state in the US decided to secede, there would be massive confusion and problems. This isnt too far from what's happening here.[/QUOTE
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 3:10 pm
  #22  
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I am hoping for another (hopefully better) major partner to replace BA, not wipe out EU travel options completely.
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 3:12 pm
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Originally Posted by AA100k
I am hoping for another (hopefully better) major partner to replace BA, not wipe out EU travel options completely.
Again, no there's indication that either of these are even remotely plausible outcomes.
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 3:13 pm
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Originally Posted by AA100k
I am hoping for another (hopefully better) major partner to replace BA...
Zero chance. Would be the end of OneWorld alliance.
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 3:27 pm
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Some ... not those hyping for either financial gain or short term political gain ... might even think that once we get beyond hype, we'll maintain the same open skies air transportation agreements that we made with the UK before the EU common trading approach ...and that there would be no impact on the BA-AA relationship. For example, how difficult is it to transit Zurich to elsewhere in Europe ...
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 3:28 pm
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Researching on finalizing on a OW RTW ticket from Europe..I am starting to have second thoughts because of the decision
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 3:33 pm
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Originally Posted by Nomad98
Researching on finalizing on a OW RTW ticket from Europe..I am starting to have second thoughts because of the decision
UK has a 2-year window to negotiate their exit, so I think you're safe to be booking a RTW within the next 9 months...
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 3:44 pm
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This often mentioned two year window doesn't exist. From the moment the UK triggers Article 50 (which some expect to happen next Tuesday! Cameron will be badly pressured to do it) the deadline is indeed two years but if an agreement is reached earlier then that's it. And the EU made it crystal clear that it wants to be done with this quick and they are in no mood to compromise.
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 3:46 pm
  #29  
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Originally Posted by AA100k
I am hoping for another (hopefully better) major partner to replace BA, not wipe out EU travel options completely.
Ignoring the fact there's exactly a 0.00% chance of that happening, what other major EU airline partner do you see coming to the rescue? LH is not leaving *A, LX is owned by LH so same applies. Just what other major EU airline is there? The only other "major" airline that I can think of would be AF and frankly given their propensity for strikes I wouldn't want that and being a major player in ST I doubt they are open for a change...
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Old Jun 24, 2016 | 3:52 pm
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I think the biggest concern here for the airlines is the impact this decision is going to have on Global companies whose European HQ is located in UK, especially the finance industry.

Yields in the premium cabin will drop if the exit, from a regulatory standpoint, ultimately requires the finance industry to restructure and relocate a significant portion of their European operations then yields will be impacted on key finance routes (LHR-JFK, LHR-ORD, LHR-HKG, etc.).

Some US investment banks have already stated potentially as much as 25% of London based employees will be displaced as they shift operations under an EU based entity to maintain steamless access to the significantly larger EU market while the downsized London offices will continue to serve the UK market.

This all will depend on how well Britain negotiates their exit - if they move forward - and how Europe establishes UK's role in the European economy.

Also - with the British Sterling driving to the ground, so will revenues. BA will be hurting and have quite bit of impact on ATI-JV partners' revenue including AA.

Last edited by golfingboy; Jun 24, 2016 at 4:06 pm
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