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-   -   Speculation: Brexit Effect on AA-BA??? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1774222-speculation-brexit-effect-aa-ba.html)

transportbiz Jun 24, 2016 10:50 am

Speculation: Brexit Effect on AA-BA???
 
Since England has voted to exit the EU, and AA is so focused on LHR as the European connection point within it's system, what are the thoughts on the future.

Convenience, could be hampered even further, LHR is already a difficult connecting point requiring security re-screening. Will Passport controls be added further delaying connections? It seems this might be a a huge deficit for OneWorld?

AANYC1981 Jun 24, 2016 10:58 am

What a mess....any changes are 2 years away it seems

grrizzli Jun 24, 2016 11:06 am

I don't see any problems with passport control. Britain has never been a part of the Schengen zone.

JonNYC Jun 24, 2016 11:11 am


Originally Posted by transportbiz (Post 26825383)
Since England has voted to exit the EU, and AA is so focused on LHR as the European connection point within it's system, what are the thoughts on the future.

Convenience, could be hampered even further, LHR is already a difficult connecting point requiring security re-screening. Will Passport controls be added further delaying connections? It seems this might be a a huge deficit for OneWorld?

No reason to assume anything of the sort at this juncture.

rjw242 Jun 24, 2016 11:16 am


Originally Posted by grrizzli (Post 26825459)
I don't see any problems with passport control. Britain has never been a part of the Schengen zone.

And major airports both within and outside the zone allow transit between non-Schengen countries without going through passport control.

daru1 Jun 24, 2016 11:18 am

You do realize that the Open Skies agreements will have to be renegotiated as well. American has the most exposure to Britain of any of it's US competitors as well. 6.2% of AA's capacity touches the nation.

Considering management's shall we say "cheapening" of the product in a race to the bottom with its competitors, it may be bad for the shareholders for a bit. It'll probably be worse for us that fly there in the longer term.

On a lighter note, at least this isn't AA's fault so there's no AApology needed.

"American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) is likely to be hit harder than any other U.S airline following the decision by U.K voters to leave the European Union, and the stock now presents greater short term risk versus its U.S airline peers. 6.2% of American Airlines capacity touches the United Kingdom and the airline offers 25 daily departures to London along with flights to Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh, and Glasgow. By comparison, United Airlines sees 5.3% of its capacity touch the UK and Delta sees 2.7% touch the UK."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3984...ng-brexit-vote

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...industry.html/

rdurlabhji Jun 24, 2016 11:21 am


Originally Posted by daru1 (Post 26825530)
You do realize that the Open Skies agreements will have to be renegotiated as well. American has the most exposure to Britain of any of it's US competitors as well. 6.2% of AA's capacity touches the nation.

Considering management's shall we say "cheapening" of the product in a race to the bottom with its competitors, it may be bad for the shareholders for a bit. It'll probably be worse for us that fly there in the longer term.

On a lighter note, at least this isn't AA's fault so there's no AApology needed.

"American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) is likely to be hit harder than any other U.S airline following the decision by U.K voters to leave the European Union, and the stock now presents greater short term risk versus its U.S airline peers. 6.2% of American Airlines capacity touches the United Kingdom and the airline offers 25 daily departures to London along with flights to Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh, and Glasgow. By comparison, United Airlines sees 5.3% of its capacity touch the UK and Delta sees 2.7% touch the UK."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3984...ng-brexit-vote

Does that article take into account that Delta owns 49% of Virgin Atlantic?

carlosdca Jun 24, 2016 11:27 am


Originally Posted by grrizzli (Post 26825459)
I don't see any problems with passport control. Britain has never been a part of the Schengen zone.

If you are American, nothing will change.

My husband is German and he uses the EU lines to enter UK in LHR, very fast. Guess that will be over soon.

But as far as connections, I don't see why anything will change.

econometrics Jun 24, 2016 12:39 pm


Originally Posted by daru1 (Post 26825530)

"American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) is likely to be hit harder than any other U.S airline following the decision by U.K voters to leave the European Union, and the stock now presents greater short term risk versus its U.S airline peers. 6.2% of American Airlines capacity touches the United Kingdom and the airline offers 25 daily departures to London along with flights to Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh, and Glasgow. By comparison, United Airlines sees 5.3% of its capacity touch the UK and Delta sees 2.7% touch the UK."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3984...ng-brexit-vote

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...industry.html/

Huh? 25 flights to London? Is that accurate? I thought it was around 15/16.

Often1 Jun 24, 2016 12:55 pm

I would not make any assumptions about anything at this stage. How the UK chooses to physically configure LHR to handle traffic originating in the EU, transiting the UK and destined for the US, has any number of permutations.

SiempreBCNJFK Jun 24, 2016 12:58 pm


Originally Posted by econometrics (Post 26826000)
Huh? 25 flights to London? Is that accurate? I thought it was around 15/16.

I counted 18...
2x CLT
4x ORD
2x DFW
2x LAX
2x MIA
4x JFK
1x PHL
1x RDU

rjw242 Jun 24, 2016 1:00 pm


Originally Posted by SiempreBCNJFK (Post 26826092)
I counted 18...
2x CLT
4x ORD
2x DFW
2x LAX
2x MIA
4x JFK
1x PHL
1x RDU

Think you're missing one from each of PHL, DFW, and maybe CLT

SiempreBCNJFK Jun 24, 2016 1:05 pm


Originally Posted by rjw242 (Post 26826098)
Think you're missing one from each of PHL, DFW, and maybe CLT

Looks like I miscounted DFW (3x).
But looks like CLT/PHL are correct, unless there are more flights seasonally than in the summer.

econometrics Jun 24, 2016 1:06 pm


Originally Posted by SiempreBCNJFK (Post 26826092)
I counted 18...
2x CLT
4x ORD
2x DFW
2x LAX
2x MIA
4x JFK
1x PHL
1x RDU


Originally Posted by rjw242 (Post 26826098)
Think you're missing one from each of PHL, DFW, and maybe CLT

Thanks. I didn't know there were 2x CLT and 4x ORD. I thought it was 1x CLT and 3x ORD.

rjw242 Jun 24, 2016 1:11 pm


Originally Posted by SiempreBCNJFK (Post 26826116)
Looks like I miscounted DFW (3x).
But looks like CLT/PHL are correct, unless there are more flights seasonally than in the summer.

You're right, I must've mixed a couple BA codeshares into my count somehow. The article may have included the MAN/EDI/BHX/GLA departures in its count of 25.


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