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-   American Airlines | AAdvantage (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage-733/)
-   -   ARCHIVE: Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1646078-archive-speculation-future-changes-aadvantage-program-consolidated.html)

rendezvous Nov 5, 2015 10:04 pm

Will RDMs in late 2016 be based off miles flown or $ spent? If it is based off miles flown, should we expect something like (miles flown * 0.25) for deep discount tickets vs (miles flown * 1.5) for full fare F? Again, I appreciate you providing us with this info, JohnNYC.

dw Nov 5, 2015 10:04 pm


Originally Posted by okrogius (Post 25670939)
-100% EQM for cheap fares.

For now. I have a feeling this is just part of the transition where we are eased into a new system where EQMs are more closely tied to fare class. Perhaps in 2017 cheap fares will drop to 25-50% EQMs

techoin Nov 5, 2015 10:06 pm


Originally Posted by rendezvous (Post 25670985)
Will RDMs in late 2016 be based off miles flown or $ spent? If it is based off miles flown, should we expect something like (miles flown * 0.25) for deep discount tickets vs (miles flown * 1.5) for full fare F? Again, I appreciate you providing us with this info, JohnNYC.

miles flown * 0.25 :mad:

355F1 Nov 5, 2015 10:08 pm


Originally Posted by nk15 (Post 25670975)
These are all from the future, they haven't happened yet...:D

It is Jon McFly with the DeLorean...:)

? :confused:

The new earning chart for BA was published just a couple days ago on aa.com.

vhrum Nov 5, 2015 10:09 pm


Originally Posted by dw (Post 25670987)
For now. I have a feeling this is just part of the transition where we are eased into a new system where EQMs are more closely tied to fare class. Perhaps in 2017 cheap fares will drop to 25-50% EQMs

I recall seeing a comment some while back to the effect that Doug Parker and Co. will be smarter than to dump a ton of negative changes on AAdvantage at once, and will instead let the frog boil slowly, so to speak.

Regardless, the more time we can buy, the better. Even if they have the intention of devaluing further in 2017 (which seems pretty likely), we can at least enjoy this coming year and have the added possibility of circumstances that could arise to preempt another change/devaluation.

kauppias Nov 5, 2015 10:09 pm

I doubt the joint venture J bonus eqm will be anywhere as rewarding as the AA side so I would not be suprised if it were only 125% for J as now it is 1.5 or 150% eqp...
This is propably worse for those who fly premium economy/full Y. Lets hope I am wrong but at least there is some hope :)

JonNYC Nov 5, 2015 10:11 pm


Originally Posted by dw (Post 25670987)
For now. I have a feeling this is just part of the transition where we are eased into a new system where EQMs are more closely tied to fare class. Perhaps in 2017 cheap fares will drop to 25-50% EQMs

I wouldn't have any reason to think that an impossible fate, would certainly "complete the cycle" in terms of -essentially- having a minimum floor for status qualification -without- having gone the revenue route on the elite-qualifying side, I'd opine. But w/o a *drop* of inside info on the subject nor any opinion on if it would be a good idea or not.

ElmhurstNick Nov 5, 2015 10:11 pm

I'm willing to trade some SWU for NQOS having 100% EQM and keeping EXP at 90k + 10k for the credit card spend. It's not like these are 2000 VIP2s, which booked straight into J as long as you had J1 available. And I'm comfortable looking for a mix of good deals on BA 787 PE out of YYZ/PHL and I fares ex-Europe. I'd like a few SWU in case I have to do JFK-SFO or DFW-HNL, but I'm not going to use all 8 of mine this year as it is.

The thing that will squash EQP for me would be having to buy A or non-GNQOS fares domestically to requalify. At that point, I'll never see domestic F again unless buying A, and would have no reason to fly more than what gets me into MCE at ticketing.

As far as RDMs go, earning ~3500 RDM on a $59 ORD-LAX one-way as a PLT/EXP is idiotic, since at a RDM valuation of $0.018 you're essentially flying for free. Obviously, that has to change.

JonNYC Nov 5, 2015 10:12 pm


Originally Posted by ElmhurstNick (Post 25671015)
...As far as RDMs go, earning ~3500 RDM on a $59 ORD-LAX one-way as a PLT/EXP is idiotic, since at a RDM valuation of $0.018 you're essentially flying for free. Obviously, that has to change.

For sure. Good example too is folks on the other end of the spectrum who buy very expensive tix on very short routes, they'll no longer get the short end-- and I think that's eminently fair.

cmd320 Nov 5, 2015 10:16 pm


Originally Posted by JonNYC (Post 25670917)
Will be all EQMs, solving the problem of a "mixed" flyer where a few premium/full-Y/etc tickets get buried (and therefore unrewarded) under AAdv's current system.

Ohhhh, hahaha! All along I had thought AA was going to target the HVC like DL and UA have been. I never stopped to think they were going to target the other end of the market...

To be honest it kinda makes a lot of sense now. Drive the HVCs towards the other airlines, devalue the product, and realign the FFP towards LVCs and then you capture that entire alienated market which DL and UA had cast aside in search of higher spend elites. I have to say, that's pretty deep thinking coming from US management. I underestimated their ability to think outside the box.

It will be very interesting going forward to see which course pans out more effectively. Realistically, there's room for both types of airlines to exist in the same market I suppose.

techoin Nov 5, 2015 10:21 pm


Originally Posted by ElmhurstNick (Post 25671015)
As far as RDMs go, earning ~3500 RDM on a $59 ORD-LAX one-way as a PLT/EXP is idiotic, since at a RDM valuation of $0.018 you're essentially flying for free. Obviously, that has to change.

valuation is relative . those who use them for redemption on international premium awards will value RDMs higher. but not everyone needs four showers..others who redeem it for domestic route will see these RDMs as useless when you can get paid fare for $59 as above and require 12.5K miles for same ticket...go figure..not everyone redeems those as FTers do and believe it or not there is pretty substantial population.

ElmhurstNick Nov 5, 2015 10:26 pm


Originally Posted by cmd320 (Post 25671026)
Ohhhh, hahaha! All along I had thought AA was going to target the HVC like DL and UA have been. I never stopped to think they were going to target the other end of the market...

To be honest it kinda makes a lot of sense now. Drive the HVCs towards the other airlines, devalue the product, and realign the FFP towards LVCs and then you capture that entire alienated market which DL and UA had cast aside in search of higher spend elites. I have to say, that's pretty deep thinking coming from US management. I underestimated their ability to think outside the box.

It will be very interesting going forward to see which course pans out more effectively. Realistically, there's room for both types of airlines to exist in the same market I suppose.

If they're going to incentivize me to spend $0.15/EQM to fly PE fares and cheap off-peak I fares to go to Europe on vacation via the JV a couple of times a year, they can afford to give up the occasional off-peak $0.06/EQM business trip for me to go out to the west coast and spend time with my staff when they chase the LVC crowd to fill the planes on TuWeSa afternoon.

Dougie's demand forecasting guys seem to have a bit of a clue about trip generation to go along with their love of capacity discipline.

kauppias Nov 5, 2015 10:28 pm

I think in the long run this could work. Mixed flyers being okay and J/F flyers winning while Y (economy) flyer holding on for life and so on :) bit time will show. I just hope they add some more benefits for EXPs on international flights or there wont be much reason to fly the extra 50k on OW

eponymous_coward Nov 5, 2015 10:32 pm


Originally Posted by JonNYC (Post 25671016)
For sure. Good example too is folks on the other end of the spectrum who buy very expensive tix on very short routes, they'll no longer get the short end-- and I think that's eminently fair.

Once those RDM rates go over to AS (which they will, the same way the BA lowered RDM rates slipped over), it will sure disincentivize me from ever flying AA if I can ever avoid it, since I always credit to AS.

So it looks like it will be like DL-style earning for partners, cheap fares earn 25% RDM or something like that. Oh well. It was fun while it lasted. Manufactured spend is the new mileage run...

schwimmair Nov 5, 2015 10:38 pm


Originally Posted by JonNYC (Post 25670955)
This is starting this coming year, so 2016 flight activity for 2017 qualification.

Ugh, thank you for the heads up. I'm at about 70K miles right now and was thinking about doing a few trips to re-qualify for EXP but not sure if I will do that now with the decrease in SWU's.

Thanks again, one of the threads of the year for sure!


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