Chances of upgrade clearing, upgrade availability discussion (consolidated - 2013 on)
#1
Moderator: American AAdvantage
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT Plat; HH LT Diamond, Maître-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,946
Chances of upgrade clearing, upgrade availability discussion (consolidated - 2013 on)
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1/3/14 ADDENDUM: This thread is now closed - please see the 2014 thread here:
Last edited by dstan; Jan 3, 2014 at 2:37 pm Reason: update OP
#2
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: AAdvantage EXP 2.5MM, SPG-Plat, HH-Gold, PC-Platinum
Posts: 139
LAX-MIA - wow, just checked F seats on flt 200 on 1/27 and F0 more than three weeks out and F0 on the return on the 30th flt 287. Wow, I booked 3 months ago so didn't think would be an issue for EXP. Any chance of sticker UG, or should I put in mi/copay and hope one opens.
#3
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 10,957
LAX-MIA - wow, just checked F seats on flt 200 on 1/27 and F0 more than three weeks out and F0 on the return on the 30th flt 287. Wow, I booked 3 months ago so didn't think would be an issue for EXP. Any chance of sticker UG, or should I put in mi/copay and hope one opens.
#4
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: NYC
Programs: Delta Platinum, former AA EXP, Hilton Diamond, Uber Diamond, National Executive
Posts: 249
Being indecisive on a SWU decision, trying to clear 2 people.
Flying from Paris - NYC on January 20th.
Currently booked on AA 44 (direct) showing 7 open seats in biz, about half of exit rows occupied, and J5 R5 D4 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O4. Not bad, but 4 of those seats were sold in the last 3 weeks, and I'm trying to clear 2 people. UG requested a little more than one month before departure. EXP desk said I have a good spot on the waitlist.
Considering doing the BA shuttle to LHR, then getting on AA 107, which is showing a wide open seat map in biz, 3/4 of row 31 open, and J7 R7 D7 I7 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O7. Given this, I am fairly certain that a SWU would clear, even applied two weeks out.
It is important to me that my SWUs clear if possible, as they are expiring soon and this is a quick personal trip.
There is a fare difference in my favor, but the change would cost me $378 ($178 after AmEx credit). If that gives me a much higher shot at the upgrade, I would be willing to spend.
I guess my question here is, especially for those familiar with AA 44, how 'dangerous' is that flight looking two weeks out with those numbers?
Flying from Paris - NYC on January 20th.
Currently booked on AA 44 (direct) showing 7 open seats in biz, about half of exit rows occupied, and J5 R5 D4 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O4. Not bad, but 4 of those seats were sold in the last 3 weeks, and I'm trying to clear 2 people. UG requested a little more than one month before departure. EXP desk said I have a good spot on the waitlist.
Considering doing the BA shuttle to LHR, then getting on AA 107, which is showing a wide open seat map in biz, 3/4 of row 31 open, and J7 R7 D7 I7 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O7. Given this, I am fairly certain that a SWU would clear, even applied two weeks out.
It is important to me that my SWUs clear if possible, as they are expiring soon and this is a quick personal trip.
There is a fare difference in my favor, but the change would cost me $378 ($178 after AmEx credit). If that gives me a much higher shot at the upgrade, I would be willing to spend.
I guess my question here is, especially for those familiar with AA 44, how 'dangerous' is that flight looking two weeks out with those numbers?
#5
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: 12 stops from ORD
Programs: UA, AA, DL
Posts: 992
ORD - jfk/dfw/mia - GIG
Any thoughts on which connection is gonna give me the best shot at clearing from Y-C?
I'm looking at mid Feb and each of the flights shows about 10-12 seats taken.
Right now I'm leaning towards DFW or MIA just because of the better connection times and less chance of wx issues.
I'm looking at mid Feb and each of the flights shows about 10-12 seats taken.
Right now I'm leaning towards DFW or MIA just because of the better connection times and less chance of wx issues.
#6
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Dallas, TX/NYC
Programs: AAdvantage EXP (5.8MM Airpass) Delta Gold Medallion Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,330
Being someone that buys last minute and often switches, I think it only right AA waits to last minute to upgrade if only a few seats left. They have finally wised up and now sell f for a little more than y on most routes. AA is trying to maximize revenue and keep their premium flyers happy by having last minute availability. The CK desk told me they will be holding more seats in 2013 to accommodate business travelers paying full fare.
Well, I personally think it's reasonable for AA not to process upgrades at this point due to the following:
1) Holiday season
2) Flight very close to New Years Eve
3) Storms recently causing issues at DFW and potentially still needing to re-book stranded passengers (which is potentially why F loads are high right now)
I'll cross my fingers for you. (I've had a few upgrades clear at the airport/gate this year.)
1) Holiday season
2) Flight very close to New Years Eve
3) Storms recently causing issues at DFW and potentially still needing to re-book stranded passengers (which is potentially why F loads are high right now)
I'll cross my fingers for you. (I've had a few upgrades clear at the airport/gate this year.)
#7
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SJC
Programs: AA EXP, BA Silver, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 33,544
Why would this be J0 so far out?
AA 78 on 1/17. Showing
J0 R0 D0 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O0
So, plenty of Y, even into low buckets. There are 7 open seats on J. I know about the reliability of the seat map, but it's been this way for quite some time (maybe 10 days or more). The only thing I can think is that other J options out of DFW seem reasonably full...so maybe they're holding some inventory.
Cheers.
J0 R0 D0 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O0
So, plenty of Y, even into low buckets. There are 7 open seats on J. I know about the reliability of the seat map, but it's been this way for quite some time (maybe 10 days or more). The only thing I can think is that other J options out of DFW seem reasonably full...so maybe they're holding some inventory.
Cheers.
#8
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: St. Louis, MO - AA PLT/2.98MM (Lifetime PLT), Delta PM, SPG Gold, AMEX Plat
Programs: TW Elite (RIP), CO OnePass
Posts: 1,923
AA 78 on 1/17. Showing
J0 R0 D0 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O0
So, plenty of Y, even into low buckets. There are 7 open seats on J. I know about the reliability of the seat map, but it's been this way for quite some time (maybe 10 days or more). The only thing I can think is that other J options out of DFW seem reasonably full...so maybe they're holding some inventory.
Cheers.
J0 R0 D0 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O0
So, plenty of Y, even into low buckets. There are 7 open seats on J. I know about the reliability of the seat map, but it's been this way for quite some time (maybe 10 days or more). The only thing I can think is that other J options out of DFW seem reasonably full...so maybe they're holding some inventory.
Cheers.
Greg
#9
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SJC
Programs: AA EXP, BA Silver, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 33,544
Cheers.
#10
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Platinum, HHonors Diamond
Posts: 383
EXP upgrade chances to/from HNL from LAX
I don't tend to have the patience to wait and see when on vacation/weekend trips, but gonna take my chances this time around for a bit of a "extended" MR, traveling alone. For those on here with some experience with this route, is there any kind of trend with the EXP upgrade coming through?
LAX - HNL (02/07/2103) AA 297 - through pass. if makes a diff
HNL - LAX (02/10/2103) AA 284
Thanks !
LAX - HNL (02/07/2103) AA 297 - through pass. if makes a diff
HNL - LAX (02/10/2103) AA 284
Thanks !
#11
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: NYC
Programs: Delta Platinum, former AA EXP, Hilton Diamond, Uber Diamond, National Executive
Posts: 249
Being indecisive on a SWU decision, trying to clear 2 people.
Flying from Paris - NYC on January 20th.
Currently booked on AA 44 (direct) showing 7 open seats in biz, about half of exit rows occupied, and J5 R5 D4 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O4. Not bad, but 4 of those seats were sold in the last 3 weeks, and I'm trying to clear 2 people. UG requested a little more than one month before departure. EXP desk said I have a good spot on the waitlist.
Considering doing the BA shuttle to LHR, then getting on AA 107, which is showing a wide open seat map in biz, 3/4 of row 31 open, and J7 R7 D7 I7 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O7. Given this, I am fairly certain that a SWU would clear, even applied two weeks out.
It is important to me that my SWUs clear if possible, as they are expiring soon and this is a quick personal trip.
There is a fare difference in my favor, but the change would cost me $378 ($178 after AmEx credit). If that gives me a much higher shot at the upgrade, I would be willing to spend.
I guess my question here is, especially for those familiar with AA 44, how 'dangerous' is that flight looking two weeks out with those numbers?
Flying from Paris - NYC on January 20th.
Currently booked on AA 44 (direct) showing 7 open seats in biz, about half of exit rows occupied, and J5 R5 D4 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O4. Not bad, but 4 of those seats were sold in the last 3 weeks, and I'm trying to clear 2 people. UG requested a little more than one month before departure. EXP desk said I have a good spot on the waitlist.
Considering doing the BA shuttle to LHR, then getting on AA 107, which is showing a wide open seat map in biz, 3/4 of row 31 open, and J7 R7 D7 I7 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O7. Given this, I am fairly certain that a SWU would clear, even applied two weeks out.
It is important to me that my SWUs clear if possible, as they are expiring soon and this is a quick personal trip.
There is a fare difference in my favor, but the change would cost me $378 ($178 after AmEx credit). If that gives me a much higher shot at the upgrade, I would be willing to spend.
I guess my question here is, especially for those familiar with AA 44, how 'dangerous' is that flight looking two weeks out with those numbers?
#12
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: LAX, NYC
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Gold
Posts: 79
AA 78 on 1/17. Showing
J0 R0 D0 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O0
So, plenty of Y, even into low buckets. There are 7 open seats on J. I know about the reliability of the seat map, but it's been this way for quite some time (maybe 10 days or more). The only thing I can think is that other J options out of DFW seem reasonably full...so maybe they're holding some inventory.
Cheers.
J0 R0 D0 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O0
So, plenty of Y, even into low buckets. There are 7 open seats on J. I know about the reliability of the seat map, but it's been this way for quite some time (maybe 10 days or more). The only thing I can think is that other J options out of DFW seem reasonably full...so maybe they're holding some inventory.
Cheers.
#13
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Denver • DEN-APA
Programs: AF Platinum, EK Gold, AA EXP, UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 21,635
I don't tend to have the patience to wait and see when on vacation/weekend trips, but gonna take my chances this time around for a bit of a "extended" MR, traveling alone. For those on here with some experience with this route, is there any kind of trend with the EXP upgrade coming through?
LAX - HNL (02/07/2103) AA 297 - through pass. if makes a diff
HNL - LAX (02/10/2103) AA 284
Thanks !
LAX - HNL (02/07/2103) AA 297 - through pass. if makes a diff
HNL - LAX (02/10/2103) AA 284
Thanks !
#14
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,535
Here's a fun question. We've largely sorted out the priorities for upgrading, but what happens if your companion is in a different fare bucket, or only one of you is transiting?