Chances of upgrade clearing, upgrade availability discussion (consolidated - 2013 on)
 

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1/3/14 ADDENDUM: This thread is now closed - please see the 2014 thread here:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...solidated.html

LAX-MIA - wow, just checked F seats on flt 200 on 1/27 and F0 more than three weeks out and F0 on the return on the 30th flt 287. Wow, I booked 3 months ago so didn't think would be an issue for EXP. Any chance of sticker UG, or should I put in mi/copay and hope one opens.

looks grim for a sticker or miles/swu upgrade.

Being indecisive on a SWU decision, trying to clear 2 people.

Flying from Paris - NYC on January 20th.

Currently booked on AA 44 (direct) showing 7 open seats in biz, about half of exit rows occupied, and J5 R5 D4 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O4. Not bad, but 4 of those seats were sold in the last 3 weeks, and I'm trying to clear 2 people. UG requested a little more than one month before departure. EXP desk said I have a good spot on the waitlist.

Considering doing the BA shuttle to LHR, then getting on AA 107, which is showing a wide open seat map in biz, 3/4 of row 31 open, and J7 R7 D7 I7 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O7. Given this, I am fairly certain that a SWU would clear, even applied two weeks out.

It is important to me that my SWUs clear if possible, as they are expiring soon and this is a quick personal trip.

There is a fare difference in my favor, but the change would cost me $378 ($178 after AmEx credit). If that gives me a much higher shot at the upgrade, I would be willing to spend.

I guess my question here is, especially for those familiar with AA 44, how 'dangerous' is that flight looking two weeks out with those numbers?

ORD - jfk/dfw/mia - GIG
 

Any thoughts on which connection is gonna give me the best shot at clearing from Y-C?

I'm looking at mid Feb and each of the flights shows about 10-12 seats taken.

Right now I'm leaning towards DFW or MIA just because of the better connection times and less chance of wx issues.

Being someone that buys last minute and often switches, I think it only right AA waits to last minute to upgrade if only a few seats left. They have finally wised up and now sell f for a little more than y on most routes. AA is trying to maximize revenue and keep their premium flyers happy by having last minute availability. The CK desk told me they will be holding more seats in 2013 to accommodate business travelers paying full fare.

Why would this be J0 so far out?
 

AA 78 on 1/17. Showing

J0 R0 D0 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O0

So, plenty of Y, even into low buckets. There are 7 open seats on J. I know about the reliability of the seat map, but it's been this way for quite some time (maybe 10 days or more). The only thing I can think is that other J options out of DFW seem reasonably full...so maybe they're holding some inventory.

Cheers.

Perhaps they have sold all the J seats but some people don't have seat assignments? I've rarely seen AA empty out availability just because, unless there were IRROPS the day of / before the flight.

Greg

Certainly possible. and I've considered that. However, I wouldn't expect them to be "open" for as long as they have in a situation like that.

Cheers.

EXP upgrade chances to/from HNL from LAX
 

I don't tend to have the patience to wait and see when on vacation/weekend trips, but gonna take my chances this time around for a bit of a "extended" MR, traveling alone. For those on here with some experience with this route, is there any kind of trend with the EXP upgrade coming through?

LAX - HNL (02/07/2103) AA 297 - through pass. if makes a diff
HNL - LAX (02/10/2103) AA 284

Thanks !

Following Up: Jumped ship, both SWUs cleared in advance (hidden C inventory) on AA107.

Well I was recently on AA32 LAX to JFK the seat map had around 7 open seats in J but EP was showing J2 D0 I0. I was concerned since I was trying to get eVIP to clear that segment. (I was flying in from NRT). Just before my flight took off in NRT i checked EP again it's suddenly showing J6 D6 I4 (and C1:D). So I guess sometimes they hold back inventory. I hope this helps. Good luck!

LAX-HNL for EXPs is usually a very easy upgrade if the F cabin isn't sold out with paid F.

Here's a fun question. We've largely sorted out the priorities for upgrading, but what happens if your companion is in a different fare bucket, or only one of you is transiting?

What about HNL - LAX or HNL - DFW for EXP? I see less available F seats on those flights vs the ones going to HNL.