2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)
Dec 21, 2015, 12:24 pm
#1201
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Southern California LAX, BUR
Programs: AA Plat; UA.
Posts: 262
[QUOTE=lakersown81;25892398]Anybody have any history/success with an upgrade on GRU-LAX since they have changed it over to the 788? /QUOTE]
On 14 December 2015 the GRU-LAX flight was delayed until Noon, According to the gate agent at least two Business class seats had not been reserved and were available for upgrades.
On 14 December 2015 the GRU-LAX flight was delayed until Noon, According to the gate agent at least two Business class seats had not been reserved and were available for upgrades.
Dec 22, 2015, 12:02 am
#1202
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Thousand Oaks, Ca., USA
Programs: AA Lifetime Plat; Bonvoy Titanium Lifetime Elite;Hyatt Globalist; HHonors Diamond; United Silver
Posts: 8,315
I just waitlisted my SWU for an LAX-MIA flight because it looks like it will sell out.
If I pull my SWU, say 25 hours ahead, would I still be in the free upgrade queue. I'm thinking I might have to re-request it.
If I pull my SWU, say 25 hours ahead, would I still be in the free upgrade queue. I'm thinking I might have to re-request it.
Dec 23, 2015, 7:20 am
#1203
Join Date: Mar 2012
Programs: AA EXP MM/UA MM/Marriott PLT Premier-LT PLT
Posts: 383
I wouldn't worry if J is mostly empty this close to departure. My point was that an empty J cabin months before departure is of little use in predicting an eventual upgrade. Nor apparently is an empty MCE cabin a guarantee you'll be at the top of the wait list.
My guess is your upgrade will clear on Monday.
My guess is your upgrade will clear on Monday.
Dec 23, 2015, 7:27 am
#1204
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: NJ
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 923
I don't understand the game anymore or any semblance of it. Flight is two days , only 2 seats taken in J, but no C or U space for last 6 months. Not sure what conditions are for actually opening U or C space. Seems to be a joke of the whole marketed program and no way related to load.
Dec 23, 2015, 9:34 am
#1205
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Phoenix/Columbus
Programs: Delta Silver Medallion, United Gold, US Airways silver
Posts: 1,717
PHX <-> AMS and back on 3/10 and 3/19?
B 757/EXP status/SWU waitlisted
B 757/EXP status/SWU waitlisted
Dec 23, 2015, 11:34 am
#1206
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: NJ
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 923
While I'm certainly glad that the upgrades came through, I don't like the new super stingy revenue management approach to upgrades and award availability. What, in the next two days they'll sell more than a dozen premium seats on Xmas day?? Makes me wonder how I'll ever be able to use my many miles pre price hike and short of "AAnytime" highway robbery "awards".
Dec 23, 2015, 11:51 am
#1207
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: New York
Programs: AA EXP 1.0mm, not sure where I am with hotels these days
Posts: 2,795
It appears the upgrade managers are slow to roll. I'm still waiting for my wife's and my upgrade on 12/26 JFK GRU flight that still has over 35 J seats to sell. I'm not worried.
Dec 23, 2015, 1:49 pm
#1208
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MCO
Programs: AA, B6, DL, EK, EY, QR, SQ, UA, Amex Plat, Marriott Tit, HHonors Gold
Posts: 12,809
Dec 23, 2015, 7:07 pm
#1209
Join Date: Mar 2012
Programs: AA EXP MM/UA MM/Marriott PLT Premier-LT PLT
Posts: 383
While I'm certainly glad that the upgrades came through, I don't like the new super stingy revenue management approach to upgrades and award availability. What, in the next two days they'll sell more than a dozen premium seats on Xmas day?? Makes me wonder how I'll ever be able to use my many miles pre price hike and short of "AAnytime" highway robbery "awards".
Dec 23, 2015, 10:09 pm
#1210
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: BNA
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 766
There needs to be inventory available for that type of upgrade, and it's often not available until just before departure date. You can call and be put on a waitlist.
Dec 24, 2015, 11:40 am
#1211
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Phoenix/Columbus
Programs: Delta Silver Medallion, United Gold, US Airways silver
Posts: 1,717
oops
Yes. Flying from PHX -> PHL, then on to AMS.
Dec 24, 2015, 3:58 pm
#1212
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: PDX
Programs: AA PLT
Posts: 174
Looking at ExpertFlyer for C availability, I have run into cases where if I search just for a nonstop I get C=0 but if I search from a different origin that can connect then on the originally displayed segment I can see C>0.
For example, if I search ORD-LHR on 12/25, AA86 shows C:0. However if I search PHL-LHR on the same day I get AA 1994 connecting to AA86 with C:2 on the latter (the former of course has A not C).
Does the flight in this example have any C availability or not? Why would the two searches show different results? As far as I know, C upgrades do not have married segment logic, since the segments can upgrade independently.
(Note that I am not trying to book a specific flight at this time. I just trying to get a feel for what routes might let my SWU clear vs. routes where I should just pay for business class outright.)
For example, if I search ORD-LHR on 12/25, AA86 shows C:0. However if I search PHL-LHR on the same day I get AA 1994 connecting to AA86 with C:2 on the latter (the former of course has A not C).
Does the flight in this example have any C availability or not? Why would the two searches show different results? As far as I know, C upgrades do not have married segment logic, since the segments can upgrade independently.
(Note that I am not trying to book a specific flight at this time. I just trying to get a feel for what routes might let my SWU clear vs. routes where I should just pay for business class outright.)
Dec 25, 2015, 5:59 pm
#1213
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: DTW
Programs: AA EXP, DL FO
Posts: 1,719
There's not really much empirical (or even anecdotal) data to go on, so I'm looking for best educated guesses:
Considering travel between LAX and SYD, and between LAX and AKL, on AA metal, which days of the week would probably have the best chances of Y>J SWU clearance?
Bear in mind that Sunday night's departure ex-LAX arrives Tuesday morning, and that Sunday night's departure ex-SYD arrives Sunday morning.
Thanks for your educated guesses!
Considering travel between LAX and SYD, and between LAX and AKL, on AA metal, which days of the week would probably have the best chances of Y>J SWU clearance?
Bear in mind that Sunday night's departure ex-LAX arrives Tuesday morning, and that Sunday night's departure ex-SYD arrives Sunday morning.
Thanks for your educated guesses!
The good thing about AA starting more "popular" routes like DFW-HKG, LAX-SYD and LAX-AKL is there are more flights where folks will want to burn their SWUs as opposed to everyone flying DFW-HKG.
The cut to 4 SWUs down to 8 will help a lot too. Having 8 does no good if you only fly a few paid intl trips a year and miss on some of them...
Hawaii also needs an SWU now to have a good chance of riding up front.
Dec 25, 2015, 6:34 pm
#1214
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Jacksonville, Fl USA
Programs: AA EXP, Admirals Club, IHG Gold, Hilton Diamond, National Emerald Executive
Posts: 140
My brother is flying 112 from MIA to BCN Jan 11, any idea on if he will hit with a SWU and what version of the 777 it is?
Dec 25, 2015, 9:11 pm
#1215
Join Date: May 2004
Location: HYI/AUS/SAT originally TTN/EWR/PHL
Programs: Southwest Rapid Rewards, Jetblue TrueBlue, American Advantage
Posts: 1,190
Upgrade percentage: DFW TO STL?
My brother just started working in STL and will be commuting from AUS to STL every week Sunday night to Thursday. Trying to make his decision between AA and WN and I'm wondering how often will he be upgraded to First between DFW and STL (he doesn't care about the AUS-DFW flight). Once he gets to Exec platinum (which would happen the beginning of August), how often can he expect to be upgraded? Because WN has a nonstop AUS-STL and he'd qualify for the companion pass.