2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)
Dec 11, 2015, 8:42 pm
#1171
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: California
Programs: AA EXP...couple hotels and cars too
Posts: 4,548
Ok I'm ExPlat and I booked two flights today AA72 on 20 Jan and AA73 on 27 Jan for me and my son (no status)... I know these TPAC flights are likely to be pretty difficult for SWUs but I put in my requests today, does anyone have access to EF for those flights to know what numbers look like??
AA 72 on 20 Jan seems to have quite a few unreserved business seats, and less than half of the MCE seats are presently taken.
AA 73 on 27 Jan will be much tougher to get the upgrades -- presently 21 Business seats are reserved -- as are 19 of the MCE seats.
If upgrades are possible it certainly won't happen earlier than the day before the flight.
AA 73 on 27 Jan will be much tougher to get the upgrades -- presently 21 Business seats are reserved -- as are 19 of the MCE seats.
If upgrades are possible it certainly won't happen earlier than the day before the flight.
Ist 1/27 the week after asustralia day/vacation ends?
FWIW, I have kept checking and this flight (AA182 on Jan 5) is still completely zero'ed out. I called the EXP line again and prodded. Agent said "it is completely sold out" and that she has only seen something like this (this= sold out with 1/3 of seats still unassigned) only a few times. I'm starting to become convinced this isn't a glitch, but I really don't want to accept my fate here 
What is odd is that as a plane fills, the price of seats gets very expemnsive- so what is happening that makes buyers pay more for that plane, in coach and biz, on jan 5? Why is jan 4 and 6 still have cheaper space? Seems and odd pattern.
Hey, its not me- I can think positive!
Dec 11, 2015, 10:57 pm
#1172
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 10
Upgrading from J to F is generally MUCH easier than from Y to J. Looking in June there are many days with J to F upgrade space available on LAX-LHR.
This far out, there really isn't much strategy other than calling the EXP desk and adding your names to the waitlist.
Is your group all on the same PNR? If so, then your biggest issue is that you're looking for 3 seats, and AA's systems will not process you unless 3 seats are released at the same time. You can call AA and have your PNR's split so that you would clear if they're released one at a time, but your companions would lose your EXP status on the waitlist.
This far out, there really isn't much strategy other than calling the EXP desk and adding your names to the waitlist.
Is your group all on the same PNR? If so, then your biggest issue is that you're looking for 3 seats, and AA's systems will not process you unless 3 seats are released at the same time. You can call AA and have your PNR's split so that you would clear if they're released one at a time, but your companions would lose your EXP status on the waitlist.
Dec 14, 2015, 12:48 am
#1173
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: LA
Programs: AA, DL, UA
Posts: 543
FWIW, I have kept checking and this flight (AA182 on Jan 5) is still completely zero'ed out. I called the EXP line again and prodded. Agent said "it is completely sold out" and that she has only seen something like this (this= sold out with 1/3 of seats still unassigned) only a few times. I'm starting to become convinced this isn't a glitch, but I really don't want to accept my fate here
Dec 14, 2015, 4:19 pm
#1174
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 44
Getting nervous about my SWU upgrade on Dec 21 from DFW to ICN (AA281).. I know seats aren't the true indicator but the business class looks fuller than I thought and I have no idea where I'm at on the waitlist.. 
Last edited by FlyEveryWeek; Dec 14, 2015 at 8:21 pm
Dec 14, 2015, 4:33 pm
#1175
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: SFO
Programs: UA GS
Posts: 164
So if you saw my earlier posts I'm pretty much in the same boat but for AA 183 (LAX-PVG). However -- I'm still hopeful as AA 183 on 12/20 (Sunday departure) just went from J0 to J7 in the past couple of days. Unfortunately my Saturday 12/19 flight is still at J0 with a half empty seat map. Coincidence or something greater at play?
J1 R1 D0 I0 Y2 B2 H0 K0 M0 L0 V0 G0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 T0
Dec 14, 2015, 8:44 pm
#1176
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: LA
Programs: AA, DL, UA
Posts: 543
Dec 14, 2015, 8:55 pm
#1177
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 44
Dec 14, 2015, 10:01 pm
#1178
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: DCA | DEN
Programs: AA EXP/2.9mm | Marriott LT Titanium 1.6k nights | NEXUS
Posts: 981
At 58 segments so far this year and requalified EXP 2 weeks ago. For SWUs no problem - used all 8 for DFW-LHR + FRA round trips this year, but cleared late on those FRA legs outbound. The other 40+ legs domestic: I was not upgraded for all but 2: and those were last minute sked changes following cancellations. I have no concerns/complaints whatsoever.
Dec 16, 2015, 2:12 pm
#1179
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: SNA
Posts: 18,241
The EXP husband ended up missing 11. One each:
DCA-DFW
DFW-DCA
DFW-SNA
HNL-LAX
LAX-DCA
LAX-KOA
PHX-SNA
and four times SNA-DFW
Dec 16, 2015, 3:59 pm
#1180
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: PHL
Programs: AA
Posts: 55
Question: I requested upgrades (via 500mi stickers) on a flight this spring. Turns out I will be losing status before then (bummer). What happens in that scenario? My assumption is nothing (i.e., as if I had not requested the upgrades). Any reason I should un-request the upgrades? My only fear would be being pulled from the economy pool, then them realizing I am not eligible to upgrade and losing my economy seat selection (or seat entirely).
Dec 16, 2015, 8:09 pm
#1181
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 294
Can someone confirm that if aa.com isn't selling F anymore, the chances of upgrading are zero? I'm even more confused because the seatmap is showing 7 open of 14...do that many people not choose seats even within 24 hours of a flight?
Dec 16, 2015, 10:34 pm
#1182
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: YVR
Programs: I'm a nobody everywhere
Posts: 424
Looking into buying Flight out of PVG to LAX on AA 182 on March 28, 2016. Completely new to this, but it looks like AA allows miles + copay to upgrade on discount economy. Would this be a good flight to do it on?
Dec 16, 2015, 11:37 pm
#1183
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: LA
Programs: AA, DL, UA
Posts: 543
Do you have ExpertFlyer? Wouldn't hurt setting an alert for C class availability and calling it in once it becomes available. Some agents will process the upgrade right away, even bypassing EXP's on the waitlist from what I gather from earlier posts.
Dec 16, 2015, 11:58 pm
#1184
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: East Coast
Programs: AA CONCIERGE KEY & 1MM, HILTON DIAMOND
Posts: 11,970
Dec 17, 2015, 7:09 am
#1185
Join Date: Oct 2013
Programs: DL PM
Posts: 700
They will sometimes stop selling F if Y is oversold or in certain other situations.