CaptRobPhD

Okay, did an 'upgrade strategy' title search and found nothing relevant. This is NOT a 'which is better' question but wondering if anybody has had in same. Mrs CRP & I have a wedding we'd like to attend in CNX end of August and I see two travel options. I'm a far bigger fan of CX PEY than I am AA Y but grabbing those seats virtually assures no OpUp TPAC (maybe 2%?!?) and the tix are $2300 each but refundable for $50 (timing is good with 0100 ORD departure). OTOH, ORDDFWHKG (AA) + other HKGCNX (KA/CX) tix are $1900 but nonrefundable but the likelihood of TPAC u/g as early buyer (few Y seats sold each way and <5 biz sold each way) means I have a high chance of UG if seats released (I'm EXP, Mrs CRP is PLT). Have 2 seat alerts for C on TPAC flights on EF. I bought the first tix on an ORDPVG flight for April 7.5 months prior!! hoping to maximize my chances for UG but swung and missed--think one seat released day of flight. Not willing to chance that bs again.

Has anybody bought refundable tix on another carrier, awaited upgrade alerts on AA, then jumped to buy [AA] and refund [another carrier] in quick order? I realize there will be a point where fares will change/good seats disappear so I'm weary of waiting too long; then again, the wedding isn't mandatory and we've already spend 3 weeks on two vacay in TH so far this year. Could be an interesting $100 experiment. Will get the same RDM for either, and either option will generate sufficient EQM/EQP to qualify each of us for 2015 PLT. Thoughts or experiences?

PS: I made a play with the AA Twitter folks (btw they Tweeted me from PEK letting me know my upgrades cleared coming home ) but knew they weren't empowered to free award space but just in case they log that kinda stiff for future reference I figured it wouldn't hurt.

Microwave

As American Airlines and AAdvantage are still separate, and you're an AA elite, I'll go ahead and move this to the pre-merger American Airlines forum where your fellow AA elites can hash this out.

~Moderator

pandaren

I just want to comment on ORDPVG upgrade chances. I flight that route about 4 times a year and from my experience the business upgrade are very dependent on day of the week. Also it's probably better to book those seats no more than 1 month ahead so you get a better idea of the business class inventory. I usually only book a few weeks ahead. A quick research on expertflyer will reveal that pattern. Hope this helps.

japaik

there's a $200 off $2000 Cathay Pacific deal from Amex Sync through July (you just have to register and then purchase with the linked Amex card) - just fyi

CaptRobPhD

Hm, I'll have to look into that sync jammie -- not associated with normal 'my offers'. Not trying to save money per se but wondering if the AA wait would be worth forgoing the CX PEY. Thanks for that though, just another time waster for me to check out manana.

davie355

The offer is also available through Facebook and Twitter. I've found the Twitter option fairly simple for offers that do not show up in my Amex online account.

https://twitter.com/cathaypacificUS/...46318958899201

worldiswide

I would second these thoughts. We fly this route a few times a year. We just returned from PVG last week. Tickets were bought for mid week both ways about 2 weeks ahead of time. The outbound cleared at ticketing time, but the inbound cleared about 3 days before flight. We had looked at when inventory was lowest before we purchased. We had 3 in the party 2 exp and me PLT and all were upgraded at the same time - 2 separate itineraries, one exp + plt, and the other exp by themselves. At flight time, the entire business class cabin was full, so I am guessing there were a lot of upgrades. We are planning a return in six or seven months, and there isnt any immediately confirmable upgrades, so we are still reviewing and trying to determine best options. Expert flyer is a good option for the research.

CaptRobPhD

Respondents seem to be responding to all but the question -- it's not one of PVG.

a) EF provides no information regarding the DFWHKG flight since it starts next month--there is no history.
b) the question asks not my chances of getting an UG but rather anybody has taken a similar strategy [on any route] and made it work or offer experience on playing UG and losing to Y on AA v. PEY refundable on CX.

JonNYC

To be honest, your OP is virtually incomprehensible. Maybe some were able to understand some of it, but I read it twice and couldn't understand it.


How do you mean?? The flights are loaded, for sale and show up just like any other flights on EF. Are you sure you are using it correctly?

CaptRobPhD

People speak of looking at the 'history' of the flight -- that's not available yet; already have seat alerts for proposed dates. Probably just buy CX PEY and confirm in best seats and cancel them for $50 if I jump on AA C UG. Seems most prudent course of action.

pssteve

Sounds like a good plan to me. Never understood why CX cancel fee was so low but also have never used it so don't know how complex the process is to get refund.
Also want to pass along kudos for last year's CX PEY fares to MEL which you posted. Made requal as EXP much easier. Also sweet when CX bumped us to J on LAX-HKG.

JJeffrey

The problem is that AA isn't likely to just release C inventory 1 or 2 months before the flight, which is what you'd be banking on for the strategy to work. Waiting for C inventory before you buy the AA fare would likely mean waiting till the week of the flight, at which point who knows what the fare would be.

Business has been relatively wide open on my last 3 trips to Asia this year, but per the new AA my SWUs haven't cleared until at least a week to 1-2 days before the flight. I'd expect HKG to be the same if not tougher with regards to C inventory.

77W_12A

Slightly off topic. I've been looking at redeeming a J class seat from LAX-HKG via DFW and NOTHING under the mileage saver (55k), is available. The anytime award is 175K! I can only imagine SWUs are going to be a challenge to use on this flight.

mikelat

Yeah, that DFW-HKG on the 77W is apparently tempting enough that folks are purchasing in to it. I think AA was pretty smart in adding that route in and getting in on some of the $$$ to be made from premium seats. I flew DFW-LHR and LAX-LHR recently on the 77W and it is just so far ahead of the 772 that i was surprised. I've got 6 more TPAC and TATL trips booked and did my best to route on a 77W with C confirmable at booking. Only have one leg DFW-HKG not confirmed yet but with 6 month advance purchase I'm hopeful on it.

To the OP - The catch is as mentioned above with AA fares if/when C comes available. I'd also bet on that route that you'll never see C open up via EF. I suspect that there will be enough people waitlisted that AA will clear from the waitlist and C will stay at 0.

CaptRobPhD

Mikelat:

I did consider that others already booked could snag them before I see >0 on EF but at least at this point, on the days I'm looking at, there are less than 15 seats sold -- total (as of earlier this week) and every premium Y seat was still available (me inferring no status having troops have booked). Have the CX and can switch if there is daylight in the next month or so...