Respondents seem to be responding to all but the question -- it's not one of PVG.
a) EF provides no information regarding the DFWHKG flight since it starts next month--there is no history.
b) the question asks not my chances of getting an UG but rather anybody has taken a similar strategy [on any route] and made it work or offer experience on playing UG and losing to Y on AA v. PEY refundable on CX.