CubsFanJohn

Agreed. I really don't think US highly-seasonal network will have much of an impact on ATI. If anything I could see the seasonal network shrinking with more emphasis being place on LHR, DUS & MAD with less being placed on cities like ATH.

Agreed. I wouldn't be shocked if PHL was downsized slightly but I don't think it will be nearly what CLT and PHX will downsized to.

CMK10

I guess a possible net positive is a combination of lifetime EQMs (like UA and CO did after their merger). Might make it so I can get to 1MM much faster ^

austin_res

The merger may benefit PHX and PHL; the LAX and JFK hubs could be vulnerable. While this is contrary to many opinions here, I think anything is possible.

I would expect PHL would be the primary Northeast hub and European gateway with JFK being downsized. The new AA could send connecting traffic through PHL and have JFK serve O/D traffic. While NYC is a bigger market than Philadelphia, it is also highly competitive and AA would face slot restrictions and capacity issues at JFK if it wanted to grow there.

I see a similar situation in the west. Los Angeles is bigger than Phoenix, but at LAX, AA faces competition with United, Southwest, Delta, and to a lessor extent Virgin America. Not to mention the numerous foreign airlines serving LAX. And also indirect competition with JetBlue at Long Beach. At PHX, the only major competitor is Southwest. Also at LAX, AA faces capacity constraints which makes it hard for them to grow there.

Parker seems to prefer to dominate a smaller market rather than competing with other airlines in a bigger market.

Robt760

This theory doesn't really stand up in regards to the One World partners at PHX and PHL in contrast to the OW partners at both LAX and JFK.

PHX= British Airways

vs

LAX=British Airways, Cathay, AirBerlin, QANTAS, Iberia, JAL, LAN, Malayasia Air

- - - - - -
PHL= British Airways

vs

JFK=British Airways, Cathay, AirBerlin, QANTAS, Iberia, JAL, LAN, Finnair, Royal Jordanian

Ambraciot

You forgot:

BOS= British Airways, JAL, Iberia

vs

DFW= British Airways, Qantas

colmc

I really can't see them tinkering too much with JFK to favour PHL.

shadesofgrey1x

AA tried TRI a few years back then left, USAIR seems to have the best pricing and flies there a few times a day. I hear its due to Eastman. Anyone hazard a guess if AA sends the Eagle there, again?

clacko

i would bet against it....lots of bigger fish to fry....probably will keep the route...so will be aa sometime next year....

HNL

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The route will be announced in about 18 months

grahampros

AA/US themselves dont really know what the new route network will look like yet. I'm sure they are deep in the process of figuring it out. What is safe to say most any small market is at risk as the small RJ's are withdrawn.

nall

Not sure I agree with that. That would really reduce the size of their network, which they (supposedly) need to compete against DL/UA.

richarddd

In order to figure it out comprehensively, it would seem they would have to share information on profitability, margins, etc. Antitrust law generally prohibits competitors from sharing this sort of competitively sensitive information, even if they've signed a merger agreement. To the extent they can avoid running afoul of this rule, they are allowed to plan for post-merger operations of the combined company.

FWAAA

Well, Delta is reducing its 50-seat RJ fleet from what had been the world's largest, IIRC as it expands its fleet of 76-seaters. US' wholly-owned commuter sub Piedmont flies a number of older Dash turboprops and unless fuel drops in price (or the economy booms, making fuel relatively cheaper), small turboprops are doomed.

Eagle has already shed most of its 37-seat ERJs (any that remain will leave the fleet this year) and next to leave will be the 44-seat Scope-Busters (ERJ140s). Compared to UA and DL, AA has fewer 50-seaters, but US has a lot of them. If current trends continue, some of the smaller spokes may not continue to have air service unless they can support larger RJs or the communities dig deep for subsidies (like Columbia, MO).

New AA won't ground all of its 50-seaters overnight, but their phase-out is inevitable as they burn a lot of fuel to carry, at most, 50 people. Where AA has been lacking compared to UA and DL is in the number of larger 76-seat RJs, as AA flies just 47 of them; both DL and UA each have more than twice that number. I believe that US itself contracts for far more than 47 larger RJs.

AA-Flyer-SAN

(OK I read some of the threads and searched some key words and only came up with the TWA merger in 2000. If this is somewhere and I missed it sorry, my eyes started crossing trying to read through all of it.)

Does anyone know (from previous mergers) that if I have EQMs with USAIR and EQMs with AA - when these programs finally merge - will the combined points/miles count towards EQM when they all fall under AAdvantage?

skunker

They haven't said what will happen yet.