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-   -   ARCHIVE: US LCC & AMR / AA Takeover / merger Rumors and Discussion (consolidated) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage-pre-consolidation-usair/1310448-archive-us-lcc-amr-aa-takeover-merger-rumors-discussion-consolidated.html)

AA_EXP09 Jul 22, 2012 7:36 am


Originally Posted by ccengct (Post 18978317)
If AA merges with US and pulls back its metal from Asia, it won't be long before JL returns to DFW, CX goes there too, and at least one them adds CLT or PHL.

Maybe AA+US will never happen, but this is becoming a lengthy thread and I haven't read a deal killer yet.

I don't think that CX would have lots of O/D traffic from DFW.

nkedel Jul 22, 2012 3:53 pm


Originally Posted by ccengct (Post 18978317)
Maybe AA+US will never happen, but this is becoming a lengthy thread and I haven't read a deal killer yet.

OTOH, I haven't seen any sign it's a killer deal, either, at least from AA's side.


Originally Posted by AA_EXP09 (Post 18978811)
I don't think that CX would have lots of O/D traffic from DFW.

How much of AA61/175 is O/D to Tokyo vs connecting to the rest of Asia?

60/61 seem (based anecdotally on price and seat availability, not published figures) to be pretty much the most consistently full TPAC flight on AA, and off the top of my head there isn't another case of two flights a day to the same Asian destination both on AA (although LAX and NYC have both JL and AA.)

TheBOSman Jul 22, 2012 4:03 pm


Originally Posted by nkedel (Post 18981254)
How much of AA61/175 is O/D to Tokyo vs connecting to the rest of Asia?

60/61 seem (based anecdotally on price and seat availability, not published figures) to be pretty much the most consistently full TPAC flight on AA, and off the top of my head there isn't another case of two flights a day to the same Asian destination both on AA (although LAX and NYC have both JL and AA.)

Warning: The plural of anecdote is not data. Just wanted to toss that out before I gave my anecdote.

That said, when I took 61 in May, I'd say about half the plane went to international connections and half went to immigration and customs. Of course, the I&C crowd could also be connecting intra-Japan.

Also, ORD also has both JL and AA.

elitetraveler Jul 22, 2012 4:12 pm


Originally Posted by AA_EXP09 (Post 18978811)
I don't think that CX would have lots of O/D traffic from DFW.

CX has freighter service to DFW now so there is certainly business in cargo.

ibrandsguest Jul 22, 2012 5:43 pm

As a US Airways frequent flyer, I am totally bummed about the merger, for 1 main reason and 2 others, in order of decreasing importance

1. With US Airways credit cards, if you spend $25k, 10,000 of the miles that you earn get converted into Preferred miles. The fee is reasonable- I think $90 per year? I have multiple US Airways credit cards and have a much higher level of Preferred status than I would just through flying. I see that AA has a credit card that can earn 10,000 Preferred (or whatever the name is for AA) miles, but the annual fee is $450, and it takes 40,000 miles to trigger a 10,000 mile conversion into Preferred miles. So there goes my higher-level status.

2. US has really come a long way in the past few years, with newer planes, better service, etc. I'm happy with it.

3. Oneworld is a much smaller alliance than the Star Alliance, and so my miles will be worth a lot less.

Now I'll sit back and see the reaction.

The only great thing that AA used to have but US didn't have is lifetime status. I have family members who got lifetime mid-tier status on AA through credit card spending. No more, I understand- now both US and AA give lifetime status through actual flight miles?

CPRich Jul 22, 2012 5:48 pm


Originally Posted by 236Dakota (Post 18978790)
Parker has put a lot of energy into winning union support for the merger. So why not try and convince AA's top customers that a merger with US would not lead to the decimation of the industry's best frequent flyer program. US could immediately bring US Air's frequent flyer program up to par with AA's; 8 SWU's good on any fare, adopt AA's upgrade, award and redemption policies.

The next step Parker could take to win elites over would be be to implement AA's food service regime.

I must say I'm amused at those who think that taking a poll and send it to a bankruptcy judge or an airline announcing FF program changes to make FF's happy has one iota of influence on a bankruptcy decision.

And the poster above was correct (as a current 1K and 10yr CP myself), you'd much, much rather be with US than UA right now in most situations.

FWAAA Jul 22, 2012 6:39 pm


Originally Posted by CPRich (Post 18981756)
I must say I'm amused at those who think that taking a poll and send it to a bankruptcy judge or an airline announcing FF program changes to make FF's happy has one iota of influence on a bankruptcy decision.

I agree with you, but the educated professionals we entrust to fly the shiny metal tubes are in many cases no different than the internet dreamers in thinking that letters to bankruptcy judges can possibly make a difference.

A couple weeks ago, 429 AA mainline pilots signed a letter that was filed with Judge Lane, begging him to require the APA (their own union) to conduct the vote on the AA's Last Best Offer via paper ballots instead of via electronic voting:

http://www.amrcaseinfo.com/pdflib/3548_15463.pdf

IMO, the ignorance reflected in that filing reflects poorly on the 429 pilots signing the letter (and the author claims that many more pilots want to sign it).

FWAAA Jul 22, 2012 6:59 pm


Originally Posted by NYCommuter (Post 18981736)
As a US Airways frequent flyer, I am totally bummed about the merger, for 1 main reason and 2 others, in order of decreasing importance

1. With US Airways credit cards, if you spend $25k, 10,000 of the miles that you earn get converted into Preferred miles. The fee is reasonable- I think $90 per year? I have multiple US Airways credit cards and have a much higher level of Preferred status than I would just through flying. I see that AA has a credit card that can earn 10,000 Preferred (or whatever the name is for AA) miles, but the annual fee is $450, and it takes 40,000 miles to trigger a 10,000 mile conversion into Preferred miles. So there goes my higher-level status.

I understand how you might lament the loss of a small shortcut to elite status, but here at AA, flying 100k miles (or 100k points or 100 segments) is the route to top tier status, and many here and elsewhere would agree that it's worth it. If I spend $40k on my AMEX, I get Hilton Diamond status without a single night's stay. Maybe AA needs a credit card where a quarter million annual spend gives you EXP. :)


Originally Posted by NYCommuter (Post 18981736)
2. US has really come a long way in the past few years, with newer planes, better service, etc. I'm happy with it.

No argument there - Doug Parker has turned things around from his earlier idiocy of charging passengers for water.


Originally Posted by NYCommuter (Post 18981736)
3. Oneworld is a much smaller alliance than the Star Alliance, and so my miles will be worth a lot less.

One thing that's never occurred to me while I sit in First Class suites to places like London or Hong Kong or Tokyo or Sydney or Buenos Aires is the size of the Oneworld Alliance and how much happier I'd be if it were as large as Star or Skyteam. Oneworld, comprised of some pretty high quality airlines like BA, CX, JL and QF, flies to a lot of the major world destinations.

Oh, yeah, sure, I understand that OW doesn't feature quite as many dots on the map to former Eastern Bloc countries or to rural villages in China, but I've found that my miles have been pretty valuable in OW over the past 13 years. No shortage of frequencies to the places most people actually want to fly, like the cities I listed above. Yes, Star managed to snag some very high quality airlines also, like SQ and LH. Not every alliance can possess every airline. :)

And just like some Oneworld member airlines are not very desirable carriers, so too with some of the Star members. Fortunately, neither alliance can boast of Aeroflot, Korean and Air France in their fold. :D

LAXJFKesq Jul 22, 2012 8:02 pm


Originally Posted by elitetraveler (Post 18978704)
Talking about Horton's initial comments that AMR should be open to all options:









Actually what i said is AA missed the boat on consolidation - which they did - the fact that AA talked to others - they didn't get the deal.

In terms of correctness, what's happened now is AMR is actively looking at merging within 11, something I suspected AMR management would be pressured to do - it is a 180 degrees from Horton's original position and the drum you kept beating.

From your perspective. As the world's largest carrier in the mid-decade, no way AA would have received regulatory approval for a merger which would have made them bigger. Although the airline had intensive talks with United based on Horton's comments to the WSJ, I am sure any deal would have to involved another carrier, possibly Delta, to appease regulators over anti-trust concerns. Need to look no further than the United-US Airways proposed merger back in the early part of the decade. That proposal needed AA to be added to the deal and the creation of a new entity -- the first minority owned airline based in DC and headed by Bob Johnson just to get to first base with DOJ and DOT -- and it still failed miserably. You are viewing AA's merger prospects thru today's lenses as the #3 carrier not the world's largest airline as it was years ago.

As for AA "actively" looking at merging while in chapter 11, not sure how you draw that conclusion when Horton's comments have been very clear and to the contrary. Just the other day the media reported that he informed Parker that AA is in no rush to do a deal. Furthermore, he stated that other options are available to AA such as other carriers, or remaining independent, or an equity stake by a private equity group. Do not mistake Horton's responsibility to AA's creditors as a sign that he is "actively" seeking a merger. After his complete review, he may just conclude and demonstrate to to CC that a standalone is AA's best option. Why do you think Parker keeps saying that the process needs to be fair and transparent? I think he knows what we all do -- US Airways is not as desirable as Parker will have you believe. afterall, as Horton said in the press, we all have known that US Airways has been for sale for sometime now despite Parker's rhethoric that the airline can remain a standalone.

elitetraveler Jul 22, 2012 8:18 pm


Originally Posted by LAXJFKesq (Post 18982380)

As for AA "actively" looking at merging while in chapter 11, not sure how you draw that conclusion when Horton's comments have been very clear and to the contrary.

This memo from Tom Horton?

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012...erger-amr-corp

AMR Corp. (US:aamrq), the bankrupt parent company of American Airlines, is now open to a merger with another carrier, according to a company memo from AMR Chief Executive Tom Horton. "[I]t is at this juncture that it now makes sense to carefully evaluate a range of strategic options, including potential mergers, which could make the new American even stronger," Horton said in the memo.

More detail from WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...624743426.html

LAXJFKesq Jul 22, 2012 9:31 pm


Originally Posted by elitetraveler (Post 18982473)
This memo from Tom Horton?

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012...erger-amr-corp

AMR Corp. (US:aamrq), the bankrupt parent company of American Airlines, is now open to a merger with another carrier, according to a company memo from AMR Chief Executive Tom Horton. "[I]t is at this juncture that it now makes sense to carefully evaluate a range of strategic options, including potential mergers, which could make the new American even stronger," Horton said in the memo.

More detail from WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...624743426.html

Not sure what part of my previous post you didn't understand? Once again, Horton has a responsibility to the CC to explore all options including a possible merger while in chapter 11. By no means does that mean he is "actively" pursuing a merger. Horton has said repeatedly that what ever is in the best interests for AA, and its creditors, employees, etc, is what he will do and do it in a disciplined manner based on the facts.

"This company is going to be very successful," Horton, 51, told USA TODAY's Editorial Board Thursday. "I think that we have a very powerful company coming out of restructuring. And I want to be sure that anything that we do only makes it better and stronger — not weaker — and more valuable, of course."

Although he had breakfast with his old friend Parker in Washington on Thursday, he was dismissive of Parker's pressure and steps to force a merger.
He said that US Airways has half the value of American and does little more than run connecting flights out of its major East Coast hub in Charlotte.
"I can clearly see the urgency to make a deal on their side," he said.


http://www.usatoday.com/money/flight...ssure-to-merge

elitetraveler Jul 22, 2012 9:40 pm


Originally Posted by LAXJFKesq (Post 18982835)
Not sure what part of my previous post you didn't understand? Once again, Horton has a responsibility to the CC to explore all options including a possible merger while in chapter 11. By no means does that mean he is "actively" pursuing a merger.

Strange AA would be contacting other airlines then? To discuss the best type of oatmeal?

FWAAA Jul 22, 2012 10:06 pm

Problem with getting our news from the media is that we're getting very few actual quotes from Horton and then when we do get a quote, people like the two of you read into the quote what you might want it to say.

Without knowing what's in Horton's head, we cannot be certain whether or not Horton has had a change of heart and all of a sudden really wants to merge with US or whether he's (as I suspect) merely dotting I's and crossing T's so that he can report to the creditors and the court that "AA management has fully investigated all available merger/combination opportunities and we have concluded that AA's plan to remain independent when it exits Ch 11 provides the largest dividend to the unsecured creditors."

You two can beat each other over the head all day and all night with all the news stories you want yet there is no way to be certain whether or not Horton wants to merge with US.

Bttc Jul 22, 2012 10:25 pm

I am so confused now. Such mixed signals. I wish they would stop hinting and just make a choice.

elitetraveler Jul 22, 2012 10:27 pm

You're right, nobody really knows…my point in post 7 on this thread is AA management was going to need to at least give the appearance they were open to a merger if that was in the best interest of the company.

Of course, it seems like Horton is talking out of both sides of his mouth when on Bloomberg TV he says he reached out to US over a year ago - and by the way I am not advocating merger vs. non-merger - just pointing out how the story has changed.


Originally Posted by Clipper110A (Post 17951154)
Glad to see AA wants to stand alone, but Horton remarks a bit odd, even knowing the way media can shape the story without the fuller context.

(extract from Charlotte Observer quoting a Dallas newspaper)

"But Horton, in comments made to the Dallas Morning News editorial board on Thursday, seemed to dismiss any suggestion of a merger.
"This is not US Airways' first attempt at this. This is a small company very strategically limited, I would argue - not any international flying, hubs of less strategic importance," Horton said.
...
On Thursday, Horton pointed to US Airways' checkered past in the merger arena.
"This will be their fourth try at this: twice for United, once for Delta while they were restructuring, now American. I would argue that this will be every bit as successful as their prior tries," Horton told the Dallas Morning News. "I'm not sure what's in the water out there in Phoenix. Maybe it's the cactus. I don't know what it is."


Originally Posted by elitetraveler (Post 17951437)
The message should be AA management is open to combinations that strengthen its position. AA is a premier brand in the aviation world and while we believe we can go it alone, we also understand that there could be opportunities to grow via merger or acquisition. Under my leadership I will always look at all options that secure AA's future for investors, employees and customers.


Originally Posted by FWAAA (Post 18982953)
Problem with getting our news from the media is that we're getting very few actual quotes from Horton and then when we do get a quote, people like the two of you read into the quote what you might want it to say.

Without knowing what's in Horton's head, we cannot be certain whether or not Horton has had a change of heart and all of a sudden really wants to merge with US or whether he's (as I suspect) merely dotting I's and crossing T's so that he can report to the creditors and the court that "AA management has fully investigated all available merger/combination opportunities and we have concluded that AA's plan to remain independent when it exits Ch 11 provides the largest dividend to the unsecured creditors."

You two can beat each other over the head all day and all night with all the news stories you want yet there is no way to be certain whether or not Horton wants to merge with US.

Regarding a possible merger with US...

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/amr-c...VfX93YkWg.html

Bloomberg "You initially suggested the merger?"

Horton "A year ago"

At 3:42 mark of the interview- it takes about 10 seconds...


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