BayAreaTrvler

There may an obvious answer to this, but it seems to me that AS is having difficulty meeting mainline demand even as it still has planes parked. I see several Airbus on the ground in OAK, for example, and I’m guessing there must be others parked as well. If they are parked awaiting the scrap heap, it seems like they’d be in the desert somewhere. Are they lacking pilots? Are they just ok running more lean than optimal as they await the influx of Max’s? Seems like they are ceding turf to others in the meantime that might be tough to regain.

fly18725

Many Airbus aircraft are being returned to lessors.

mtofell

TSA passenger counts are still only running about 80% of pre-Covid levels so there are definitely more planes than needed. Just because the planes are full doesn't mean demand is the same as before. I'm sure ramping back up is a very delicate balancing act. There's just so many unknowns and I have to think it takes some time to schedule a flight and get things all setup. It seems like right now demand is outpacing supply (scheduled flights) by a bit but I'm really just basing that on my limited experience of shopping for my regular west coast to Hawaii route.

anteater

What percentage of the fleet is each carrier operating compared to pre-COVID? If we are at 80% demand but planes are still grounded..

mtofell

Is this one of those, "Train A leaves Boston at 10:15AM, Train B leaves New York at 11:30AM" questions?

I'd think 80% but am guessing I'm wrong.

EAJuggalo

I've read many places that the issue right now is pilots. How many pilots does AS have that need to get re-certified before they can fly again? From what I've read it's much easier to get a plane that's been parked for 15 months ready to fly again than it is to get a pilot who hasn't flown for 15 months re-certified by the FAA.

I'd guess that the airlines are using about 70% of their pre-covid fleet.

sfozrhfco

.

That is really not relevant. Flights to Asia and Europe are still way down but of course AS doesn't fly to any of those destinations. So yes, passenger numbers will be down because intercontinental flights are still being cancelled but domestic travel has come back. Other mostly domestic carriers like WN are only down around 6%. Spirit and Allegiant are already 20% higher than 2019. Frontier is also higher and JetBlue should be back at 2019 levels within the next few months as well.

AS is down by choice. They retired mainline planes early so even if they wanted to be back at 2019 levels they can't. The number of mainline planes will only be back at 2019 levels by the end of 2023---and that is with the recent orders. The new planes are on average bigger than the retired ones so capacity will come back a bit faster---but just because a plane holds more seats does not mean that it can fly more flights. They can upgauge and reduce frequency or cut long flights and fly more shorter ones. Otherwise, if they try to get back to the original mainline schedule they had in 2019, they would only be able to do that by the end of 2023.

chrisl137

Alaska had 137 pilots retire (with some incentives) to avoid layoffs, and had over 900 take extended leave. It's not clear how many are back yet, though a little google might be able to find that.

But all the airlines are probably deliberately avoiding bringing capacity back online quickly, both to avoid having to shut it down again if there's a sudden change and to keep the ability to charge high prices for seats.

Citabria

Alaska will resume pilot hiring soon, and has announced an application window opening in the coming days.

But check out the Alaska Airbus thread here on flyertalk (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/alas...ng-thread.html) that tells the story a bit more clearly. Of the 70-odd VX Airbusses, 30 have been returned to lessors/sold off since the pandemic began. I believe Alaska has taken 4 737max aircraft in that time.

sdsearch

And some of that domestic travel, on the other hand, may be a temporary spike. Some people booked domestic flights for this summer back when they were still super-cheap. Many people booked domestic flights only because they were wary of booking the international flights they would have preferred.

So it's unclear yet whether this surge in domestic flying will continue once much more of the rest of the world opens up. It's also unclear how much it will continue outside of the summer, if it's much more leisure travel than it was back in 2019. And it's unclear how many people will lessen their domestic leisure flying as prices go up.

sfozrhfco

Of course it is a bet on the future. AS is betting that not growing will work out for them. Only time will tell if that bet is the right one. ULCCs are growing very fast and other carriers will have 2 1/2 years to take advantage of the fact that AS has reduced or dropped out of many markets--especially from California. It really depends on whether or not other carriers focus their growth in the Western part of the US or elsewhere. We will see what happens in a couple years. AS may either benefit by staying small and saving money or find themselves losing more and more market share and be cornered back in SEA. At this point, nobody can really say which scenario will play out. Both could be equally likely at this point.

fly18725

You’re exaggerating quite a bit, both about relative growth within the industry and AS’ network evolution.

The only major US airlines with plans and aircraft for significant near term growth are F9 and NK. Depending on staffing, UA could return more airplanes to service and grow with new deliveries. Like AS, AA, DL and WN will use 2022-23 deliveries to backfill retirements made with assumption of slower recovery. B6 sits in the middle with ability to use A32X for some growth, but, not unlike AS, they’ve failed to generate momentum outside of historic markets.

AS does have a good number of E-Jets coming and 2022 will see continued network expansion with regionals. If California demand recovers, you can bet AS’ network will follow.

Klrduks

Ask American and Southwest how those growth plans are working in the last several weeks. Seems to be a staff shortage that will keep Alaska from getting "back to normal". (Just like the rest of the service economy.) I just hope this labor shortage is not a long-term issue. If so, we may have very full planes (while others are parked) for the foreseeable future.