Originally Posted by
sfozrhfco
Of course it is a bet on the future. AS is betting that not growing will work out for them. Only time will tell if that bet is the right one. ULCCs are growing very fast and other carriers will have 2 1/2 years to take advantage of the fact that AS has reduced or dropped out of many markets--especially from California. It really depends on whether or not other carriers focus their growth in the Western part of the US or elsewhere. We will see what happens in a couple years. AS may either benefit by staying small and saving money or find themselves losing more and more market share and be cornered back in SEA. At this point, nobody can really say which scenario will play out. Both could be equally likely at this point.
You’re exaggerating quite a bit, both about relative growth within the industry and AS’ network evolution.
The only major US airlines with plans and aircraft for significant near term growth are F9 and NK. Depending on staffing, UA could return more airplanes to service and grow with new deliveries. Like AS, AA, DL and WN will use 2022-23 deliveries to backfill retirements made with assumption of slower recovery. B6 sits in the middle with ability to use A32X for some growth, but, not unlike AS, they’ve failed to generate momentum outside of historic markets.
AS does have a good number of E-Jets coming and 2022 will see continued network expansion with regionals. If California demand recovers, you can bet AS’ network will follow.