Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > Alaska Airlines | Mileage Plan
Reload this Page >

What's your 'cents per mile' strike price for MRs on AS?

What's your 'cents per mile' strike price for MRs on AS?

Old Jan 24, 20, 10:16 pm
  #1  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: SEA
Programs: AA, AGR, AS, Marriot, TSA Pre✓, Wyndham, He-Man Woman-Haters Club (Dishonorable Discharge)
Posts: 31
What's your 'cents per mile' strike price for MRs on AS?

This is the year I'm intentionally working toward MVPG on AS, and cheap Saver fare quick turnaround flights, when prices and my schedule align, are part of the plan.

If you do something similar, how low does the cents per mile cost of a flight have to go before you consider it a good deal? 2 cents? 5 cents?

Or if you go with Main cabin fares instead, what's the max CPM you'll book?
TheStrangerIn29K is offline  
Old Jan 25, 20, 12:11 am
  #2  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: west coast best coast
Programs: TINDER GOLD, STARBUCKS GOLD, COSTCO EXECUTIVE!!
Posts: 3,370
It's more a breakeven point + opportunity cost than a strike price like a stock option. My breakeven is 1.5cpm for AS, so if I don't have conflicting plans I'll probably do a mileage run. And yes, saver fares are cheap but if you're factoring in upgrade chances, given the choice if you would pay the $+20-30 difference for a fare (multiplied by the odds of getting upgraded), I'd say the choice is pretty clear against saver fares. If you're not getting upgraded, then book saver.
TheStrangerIn29K likes this.
keitherson is online now  
Old Jan 25, 20, 12:40 am
  #3  
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 5,377
Originally Posted by TheStrangerIn29K View Post
This is the year I'm intentionally working toward MVPG on AS, and cheap Saver fare quick turnaround flights, when prices and my schedule align, are part of the plan.

If you do something similar, how low does the cents per mile cost of a flight have to go before you consider it a good deal? 2 cents? 5 cents?

Or if you go with Main cabin fares instead, what's the max CPM you'll book?
Per eqm or rdm?

I value RDMs at about 2c and take that into consideration when I book flights (though not purely mileage runs). For example, last year I did a BA discount F trip to India for $4500. I earned about 105k miles so I considered it about a $2400 cost.

EQMs are a little different. I value gold very highly, and 75k mostly for the 50k bonus miles. I don't really put a per-mile value on EQMs, but I gladly made a weekend trip to Hawaii near the end of last year to get me to 75k.

I always book main. I don't see the point of having status if I am not going to get upgraded, or at least get a premium seat.
TheStrangerIn29K and PVDtoDEL like this.
VegasGambler is offline  
Old Jan 25, 20, 1:15 am
  #4  
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: SEA
Posts: 1,380
EQM = $0.04
TheStrangerIn29K likes this.
Single_Flyer is offline  
Old Jan 25, 20, 1:16 am
  #5  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: SEA
Programs: AA, AGR, AS, Marriot, TSA Pre✓, Wyndham, He-Man Woman-Haters Club (Dishonorable Discharge)
Posts: 31
Originally Posted by VegasGambler View Post
Per eqm or rdm?

I value RDMs at about 2c and take that into consideration when I book flights (though not purely mileage runs). For example, last year I did a BA discount F trip to India for $4500. I earned about 105k miles so I considered it about a $2400 cost.

EQMs are a little different. I value gold very highly, and 75k mostly for the 50k bonus miles. I don't really put a per-mile value on EQMs, but I gladly made a weekend trip to Hawaii near the end of last year to get me to 75k.

I always book main. I don't see the point of having status if I am not going to get upgraded, or at least get a premium seat.
---

Originally Posted by keitherson View Post
It's more a breakeven point + opportunity cost than a strike price like a stock option. My breakeven is 1.5cpm for AS, so if I don't have conflicting plans I'll probably do a mileage run. And yes, saver fares are cheap but if you're factoring in upgrade chances, given the choice if you would pay the $+20-30 difference for a fare (multiplied by the odds of getting upgraded), I'd say the choice is pretty clear against saver fares. If you're not getting upgraded, then book saver.
---

That's making sense to me, or is at least pointing me in the right direction. But I see I succeeded in making one thing unclear: I don't even have MVP yet for the year, let alone MVPG, so until I get to 20K, I think the lowest cost Saver fares I can find still usually make sense when I'm flying alone. I'll definitely be hoping for upgrades from Main once I hit MVP. Thanks to both of you for the insights.
TheStrangerIn29K is offline  
Old Jan 25, 20, 1:30 am
  #6  
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 5,377
If you have status with another airline, you may wish to consider matching The bonus RDM you earn with elite status are significant; you may as well have it earlier rather than later.
TheStrangerIn29K likes this.
VegasGambler is offline  
Old Jan 25, 20, 4:29 am
  #7  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: ADL, SEA
Programs: Hilton Diamond, IHG Platinum, Choice Diamond, Alaska 75K, Avianca, Etihad
Posts: 4,484
I value RDM at 2 cpm. Flights that cost me less than 2 cpm tweek my interest more than others. Although even as a 75K member, those fares are not as prevalent as they once were (especially since we no longer get full miles for Qantas flights).

That said, flying domestically short haul around the PNW, I often take the Saver Fares as I do not value the upgrades. It is just a bus to get around. This is especially true for Horizon Air flights.

To me, the value in status is the 125% 75K bonus, no fee flight changes, same day flight changes and exit row seating. I do not value the upgrades nearly as much.

Last edited by davistev; Jan 25, 20 at 4:34 am
davistev is offline  
Old Jan 25, 20, 10:45 am
  #8  
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 1,765
With $25 one-ways on PAE-PDX and the Visa Discount Air deal still alive earlier this month, the fare cost was *zero*. I will have to re-evaluate now that we are in a different era.
TheStrangerIn29K likes this.
jjclancy is offline  
Old Jan 25, 20, 1:35 pm
  #9  
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: LAX/SFO
Programs: Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond, Fortune Wings Club Gold
Posts: 72
Originally Posted by jjclancy View Post
With $25 one-ways on PAE-PDX and the Visa Discount Air deal still alive earlier this month, the fare cost was *zero*. I will have to re-evaluate now that we are in a different era.
Same. $25 LAX-SJC was nice while it lasted.
TheStrangerIn29K likes this.
aquanine is offline  
Old Jan 25, 20, 1:40 pm
  #10  
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Programs: A3 *G, AA exePlat, AS MVP 75k Gold, JL sapphire, UA silver
Posts: 3,616
I have JFK lax JFK and JFK SFO JFK booked during buy 1 get 1. Main cabin 130 USD.

Due to amex offer, I got 40usd discount. So 2 trips for 220 USD.

Last year, I did JFK lax JFK during double miles for 230 in main (Oct 19)

​​​​​​Since I have to position to jfk, probably won't do many more trips unless very good price.


I will make 75k this year as I have 2 more hkg JFK in first class and a bunch of ba in first class. So it is really rdm run to spend all my travel voucher as I experiment various ways to use up my amex Hilton Aspire airline credit dying to 0 dollar annual fee last year.
TheStrangerIn29K likes this.
pbd456 is online now  
Old Jan 25, 20, 1:41 pm
  #11  
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Programs: A3 *G, AA exePlat, AS MVP 75k Gold, JL sapphire, UA silver
Posts: 3,616
Originally Posted by jjclancy View Post
With $25 one-ways on PAE-PDX and the Visa Discount Air deal still alive earlier this month, the fare cost was *zero*. I will have to re-evaluate now that we are in a different era.
What is visa discount deal?
pbd456 is online now  
Old Jan 25, 20, 2:00 pm
  #12  
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 5,377
Originally Posted by pbd456 View Post
What is visa discount deal?
Some Visa Infinity cards (not the CSR) used to give you a $100 discount when you bought 2 tickets on the same PNR. This was a published benefit of the card. That was just discontinued this month, though.
VegasGambler is offline  
Old Jan 25, 20, 2:27 pm
  #13  
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Programs: A3 *G, AA exePlat, AS MVP 75k Gold, JL sapphire, UA silver
Posts: 3,616
Originally Posted by pbd456 View Post
I have JFK lax JFK and JFK SFO JFK booked during buy 1 get 1. Main cabin 130 USD.

Due to amex offer, I got 40usd discount. So 2 trips for 220 USD.

Last year, I did JFK lax JFK during double miles for 230 in main (Oct 19)

​​​​​​Since I have to position to jfk, probably won't do many more trips unless very good price.


I will make 75k this year as I have 2 more hkg JFK in first class and a bunch of ba in first class. So it is really rdm run to spend all my travel voucher as I experiment various ways to use up my amex Hilton Aspire airline credit dying to 0 dollar annual fee last year.
Originally Posted by VegasGambler View Post
Some Visa Infinity cards (not the CSR) used to give you a $100 discount when you bought 2 tickets on the same PNR. This was a published benefit of the card. That was just discontinued this month, though.
Ic. Chase ritz Carlton which I don't have... Thx
pbd456 is online now  
Old Jan 25, 20, 3:35 pm
  #14  
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 5,377
Originally Posted by pbd456 View Post
Ic. Chase ritz Carlton which I don't have... Thx
Yeah. There were a few other cards too. There is a thread about it on the Chase forum. But it's gone from all cards now so it's a moot point.
VegasGambler is offline  
Old Jan 25, 20, 7:24 pm
  #15  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Bay Area, CA
Programs: UA Plat 2MM; AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 34,976
Originally Posted by jjclancy View Post
With $25 one-ways on PAE-PDX and the Visa Discount Air deal still alive earlier this month, the fare cost was *zero*. I will have to re-evaluate now that we are in a different era.
Same here...we were literally flying from the Bay Area to Southern Cal for about $4 round trip per person. Or if we got a good deal on NYC, about $208 RT per person with double miles promo last year (about 17K RDM for $208).

We have to do a bit of a reset now that we're back in a more sane pricing environment.
NoLaGent and TheStrangerIn29K like this.
channa is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Search Engine: