What's your 'cents per mile' strike price for MRs on AS?
Jan 24, 2020, 9:16 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Eastern Shore of Lake Michigan; Formerly SEA
Programs: AS MVPG | oneworld Sapphire
Posts: 578
What's your 'cents per mile' strike price for MRs on AS?
This is the year I'm intentionally working toward MVPG on AS, and cheap Saver fare quick turnaround flights, when prices and my schedule align, are part of the plan.
If you do something similar, how low does the cents per mile cost of a flight have to go before you consider it a good deal? 2 cents? 5 cents?
Or if you go with Main cabin fares instead, what's the max CPM you'll book?
If you do something similar, how low does the cents per mile cost of a flight have to go before you consider it a good deal? 2 cents? 5 cents?
Or if you go with Main cabin fares instead, what's the max CPM you'll book?
Jan 24, 2020, 11:11 pm
#2
Join Date: May 2013
Location: west coast best coast
Programs: TINDER GOLD, STARBUCKS GOLD, COSTCO EXECUTIVE!!
Posts: 3,989
It's more a breakeven point + opportunity cost than a strike price like a stock option. My breakeven is 1.5cpm for AS, so if I don't have conflicting plans I'll probably do a mileage run. And yes, saver fares are cheap but if you're factoring in upgrade chances, given the choice if you would pay the $+20-30 difference for a fare (multiplied by the odds of getting upgraded), I'd say the choice is pretty clear against saver fares. If you're not getting upgraded, then book saver.
Jan 24, 2020, 11:40 pm
#3
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 10,904
This is the year I'm intentionally working toward MVPG on AS, and cheap Saver fare quick turnaround flights, when prices and my schedule align, are part of the plan.
If you do something similar, how low does the cents per mile cost of a flight have to go before you consider it a good deal? 2 cents? 5 cents?
Or if you go with Main cabin fares instead, what's the max CPM you'll book?
If you do something similar, how low does the cents per mile cost of a flight have to go before you consider it a good deal? 2 cents? 5 cents?
Or if you go with Main cabin fares instead, what's the max CPM you'll book?
I value RDMs at about 2c and take that into consideration when I book flights (though not purely mileage runs). For example, last year I did a BA discount F trip to India for $4500. I earned about 105k miles so I considered it about a $2400 cost.
EQMs are a little different. I value gold very highly, and 75k mostly for the 50k bonus miles. I don't really put a per-mile value on EQMs, but I gladly made a weekend trip to Hawaii near the end of last year to get me to 75k.
I always book main. I don't see the point of having status if I am not going to get upgraded, or at least get a premium seat.
Jan 25, 2020, 12:16 am
#5
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Eastern Shore of Lake Michigan; Formerly SEA
Programs: AS MVPG | oneworld Sapphire
Posts: 578
Per eqm or rdm?
I value RDMs at about 2c and take that into consideration when I book flights (though not purely mileage runs). For example, last year I did a BA discount F trip to India for $4500. I earned about 105k miles so I considered it about a $2400 cost.
EQMs are a little different. I value gold very highly, and 75k mostly for the 50k bonus miles. I don't really put a per-mile value on EQMs, but I gladly made a weekend trip to Hawaii near the end of last year to get me to 75k.
I always book main. I don't see the point of having status if I am not going to get upgraded, or at least get a premium seat.
I value RDMs at about 2c and take that into consideration when I book flights (though not purely mileage runs). For example, last year I did a BA discount F trip to India for $4500. I earned about 105k miles so I considered it about a $2400 cost.
EQMs are a little different. I value gold very highly, and 75k mostly for the 50k bonus miles. I don't really put a per-mile value on EQMs, but I gladly made a weekend trip to Hawaii near the end of last year to get me to 75k.
I always book main. I don't see the point of having status if I am not going to get upgraded, or at least get a premium seat.
It's more a breakeven point + opportunity cost than a strike price like a stock option. My breakeven is 1.5cpm for AS, so if I don't have conflicting plans I'll probably do a mileage run. And yes, saver fares are cheap but if you're factoring in upgrade chances, given the choice if you would pay the $+20-30 difference for a fare (multiplied by the odds of getting upgraded), I'd say the choice is pretty clear against saver fares. If you're not getting upgraded, then book saver.
That's making sense to me, or is at least pointing me in the right direction. But I see I succeeded in making one thing unclear: I don't even have MVP yet for the year, let alone MVPG, so until I get to 20K, I think the lowest cost Saver fares I can find still usually make sense when I'm flying alone. I'll definitely be hoping for upgrades from Main once I hit MVP. Thanks to both of you for the insights.
Jan 25, 2020, 3:29 am
#7
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Philippines
Programs: CebGo 5J, Hilton Diamond, IHG Platinum, Alaska 100K
Posts: 4,696
I value RDM at 2 cpm. Flights that cost me less than 2 cpm tweek my interest more than others. Although even as a 75K member, those fares are not as prevalent as they once were (especially since we no longer get full miles for Qantas flights).
That said, flying domestically short haul around the PNW, I often take the Saver Fares as I do not value the upgrades. It is just a bus to get around. This is especially true for Horizon Air flights.
To me, the value in status is the 125% 75K bonus, no fee flight changes, same day flight changes and exit row seating. I do not value the upgrades nearly as much.
That said, flying domestically short haul around the PNW, I often take the Saver Fares as I do not value the upgrades. It is just a bus to get around. This is especially true for Horizon Air flights.
To me, the value in status is the 125% 75K bonus, no fee flight changes, same day flight changes and exit row seating. I do not value the upgrades nearly as much.
Last edited by davistev; Jan 25, 2020 at 3:34 am
Jan 25, 2020, 12:35 pm
#9
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: LAX/SFO
Programs: Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Gold, Fortune Wings Club Gold
Posts: 358
Jan 25, 2020, 12:40 pm
#10
Join Date: Sep 2008
Programs: A3 *G, AA exePlat, AS MVP 75k Gold, JL sapphire, UA silver
Posts: 4,035
I have JFK lax JFK and JFK SFO JFK booked during buy 1 get 1. Main cabin 130 USD.
Due to amex offer, I got 40usd discount. So 2 trips for 220 USD.
Last year, I did JFK lax JFK during double miles for 230 in main (Oct 19)
Since I have to position to jfk, probably won't do many more trips unless very good price.
I will make 75k this year as I have 2 more hkg JFK in first class and a bunch of ba in first class. So it is really rdm run to spend all my travel voucher as I experiment various ways to use up my amex Hilton Aspire airline credit dying to 0 dollar annual fee last year.
Due to amex offer, I got 40usd discount. So 2 trips for 220 USD.
Last year, I did JFK lax JFK during double miles for 230 in main (Oct 19)
Since I have to position to jfk, probably won't do many more trips unless very good price.
I will make 75k this year as I have 2 more hkg JFK in first class and a bunch of ba in first class. So it is really rdm run to spend all my travel voucher as I experiment various ways to use up my amex Hilton Aspire airline credit dying to 0 dollar annual fee last year.
Jan 25, 2020, 12:41 pm
#11
Join Date: Sep 2008
Programs: A3 *G, AA exePlat, AS MVP 75k Gold, JL sapphire, UA silver
Posts: 4,035
Jan 25, 2020, 1:00 pm
#12
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 10,904
Jan 25, 2020, 1:27 pm
#13
Join Date: Sep 2008
Programs: A3 *G, AA exePlat, AS MVP 75k Gold, JL sapphire, UA silver
Posts: 4,035
I have JFK lax JFK and JFK SFO JFK booked during buy 1 get 1. Main cabin 130 USD.
Due to amex offer, I got 40usd discount. So 2 trips for 220 USD.
Last year, I did JFK lax JFK during double miles for 230 in main (Oct 19)
Since I have to position to jfk, probably won't do many more trips unless very good price.
I will make 75k this year as I have 2 more hkg JFK in first class and a bunch of ba in first class. So it is really rdm run to spend all my travel voucher as I experiment various ways to use up my amex Hilton Aspire airline credit dying to 0 dollar annual fee last year.
Due to amex offer, I got 40usd discount. So 2 trips for 220 USD.
Last year, I did JFK lax JFK during double miles for 230 in main (Oct 19)
Since I have to position to jfk, probably won't do many more trips unless very good price.
I will make 75k this year as I have 2 more hkg JFK in first class and a bunch of ba in first class. So it is really rdm run to spend all my travel voucher as I experiment various ways to use up my amex Hilton Aspire airline credit dying to 0 dollar annual fee last year.
Jan 25, 2020, 2:35 pm
#14
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 10,904
Jan 25, 2020, 6:24 pm
#15
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Bay Area, CA
Programs: UA Plat 2MM; AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 35,068
We have to do a bit of a reset now that we're back in a more sane pricing environment.