A Small Victory in SAN for AS?

Old Apr 30, 19, 12:53 pm
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A Small Victory in SAN for AS?

I have trips to EWR and MCO that need to be booked for this summer, and for the sake of comparison, I wanted to look at pricing on WN. However, it appears that WN has cut both of these nonstops. Perhaps they are a casualty of the MAX issues?

My first thought was that WN might be making room for Hawaii flights, but they have yet to put any on the schedule from SAN.

I just flew SAN-MCO-SAN last week and SAN-EWR yesterday on AS, and all flights were completely full, so I think this bids well for Alaska going forward. I even failed to get an upgrade on SAN-EWR for the first time in four flights this year (I was #4 on the list and the first three cleared), so they’re even selling a good chunk of F seats now.
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Old Apr 30, 19, 12:56 pm
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WN has temporarily cut many long flights to deal with the MAX issue this summer. Doesn't necessarily mean anything other than that they have many connecting options to reaccomodate people between the west and east coasts.
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Old Apr 30, 19, 4:16 pm
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Originally Posted by ucdtim17 View Post
WN has temporarily cut many long flights to deal with the MAX issue this summer. Doesn't necessarily mean anything other than that they have many connecting options to reaccomodate people between the west and east coasts.
They cut the nonstops that were least profitable to them as they shuffled their planes around to cover the MAX flying, is basically what it means. DL, UA and AA also offer many connecting opportunities but only one airline offers nonstops... and they're running pretty full, so there's that...
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Old Apr 30, 19, 5:10 pm
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Originally Posted by AS Flyer View Post
They cut the nonstops that were least profitable to them as they shuffled their planes around to cover the MAX flying, is basically what it means. DL, UA and AA also offer many connecting opportunities but only one airline offers nonstops... and they're running pretty full, so there's that...
Give me a non-stop over a detour to DAL or MDW any day. If memory serves me correctly, I think F9 operates SAN-MCO a few days a week as well. Not sure that’s much competition though.
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Old Apr 30, 19, 5:16 pm
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Originally Posted by AS Flyer View Post
They cut the nonstops that were least profitable to them as they shuffled their planes around to cover the MAX flying, is basically what it means. DL, UA and AA also offer many connecting opportunities but only one airline offers nonstops... and they're running pretty full, so there's that...
Yes the routes may be less profitable and still return when the Maxes return to service. A good opportunity though for AS to poach customers.
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Old Apr 30, 19, 5:50 pm
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Originally Posted by ucdtim17 View Post
Yes the routes may be less profitable and still return when the Maxes return to service. A good opportunity though for AS to poach customers.
Though B6 seems to be a bigger beneficiary in this case as their flights are far more full. AS is offering rates of $499/$506 on most dates for F which is quite low for a transcon with limited competition. Close in it is very similar to Y fares. B6 is $1390 in Mint close in and selling out most flights.
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Old Apr 30, 19, 6:30 pm
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Originally Posted by sfozrhfco View Post
Though B6 seems to be a bigger beneficiary in this case as their flights are far more full. AS is offering rates of $499/$506 on most dates for F which is quite low for a transcon with limited competition. Close in it is very similar to Y fares. B6 is $1390 in Mint close in and selling out most flights.
When did B6 start flying SAN-MCO and SAN-EWR? Is this new? I'm also curious how many WN passengers were in the market for a $1390 fare in Mint? I mean, after cancelling their nonstop to EWR, did those passengers really go right over to B6 and buy a $1390 Mint fare? That's ridiculous. Edited to also add that I'm looking at June and I see $939 one way F fares on AS to EWR on many days. Over $400 less than Mint and still in First Class, albeit not lie flat. Other days you can find it for $619 one way. I did see a few days with 1 or 2 seats available at $499. Not an entire F cabin...
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Last edited by AS Flyer; Apr 30, 19 at 6:38 pm
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Old Apr 30, 19, 10:08 pm
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Originally Posted by AS Flyer View Post
When did B6 start flying SAN-MCO and SAN-EWR? Is this new? I'm also curious how many WN passengers were in the market for a $1390 fare in Mint? I mean, after cancelling their nonstop to EWR, did those passengers really go right over to B6 and buy a $1390 Mint fare? That's ridiculous. Edited to also add that I'm looking at June and I see $939 one way F fares on AS to EWR on many days. Over $400 less than Mint and still in First Class, albeit not lie flat. Other days you can find it for $619 one way. I did see a few days with 1 or 2 seats available at $499. Not an entire F cabin...
Not the entire F cabin? Of course not. They don't even bother selling the entire F cabin for $499. They'd rather sell Coach for $150. Ever watch how AS undersells some of its transcons in F? This is a flight that's F4 in the SAN-EWR market. I suppose technically possible that there are 6 pax booked into F who didn't select a seat. But when we see this pattern time and time again, we can figure out what's up.



Here's one that's F3:



And here's one that's F2:




Btw, I'm also seeing $479 Mint fares in this market. I guess underselling F and selling more tickets in Y for $150 and double miles is the competitive response?
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Old Apr 30, 19, 10:59 pm
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Originally Posted by channa View Post
Not the entire F cabin? Of course not. They don't even bother selling the entire F cabin for $499. They'd rather sell Coach for $150. Ever watch how AS undersells some of its transcons in F? This is a flight that's F4 in the SAN-EWR market. I suppose technically possible that there are 6 pax booked into F who didn't select a seat. But when we see this pattern time and time again, we can figure out what's up.



Here's one that's F3:



And here's one that's F2:




Btw, I'm also seeing $479 Mint fares in this market. I guess underselling F and selling more tickets in Y for $150 and double miles is the competitive response?
I'm trying to figure out what you're saying here. For some reason, none of this makes any sense to me. Underselling F means more upgrades so I'm not even sure why anyone here would be opposed to that. Nevertheless, my point is that, while there may be some $499 fares, that's usually limited to a couple of seats and then prices start getting higher. Whether they sell the entire F cabin or not, ???
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Old Apr 30, 19, 11:11 pm
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Originally Posted by AS Flyer View Post
I'm trying to figure out what you're saying here. For some reason, none of this makes any sense to me. Underselling F means more upgrades so I'm not even sure why anyone here would be opposed to that. Nevertheless, my point is that, while there may be some $499 fares, that's usually limited to a couple of seats and then prices start getting higher. Whether they sell the entire F cabin or not, ???
I don't think the poster was referring to underselling the actual cost of seats in the F cabin, but rather the fact that AS routinely will put fewer seats in F for sale (at whatever price) than they actually have....I have seen this multiple times and to be honest, it's a head scratcher....makes me wonder if it's some weird technical glitch. Last summer I think my SBA-PDX flight went to F0 when there were actually multiple F seats available....the flight didn't even go out full in F....this happens a lot and although, as an elite, I appreciate the fact that this *may* make more seats available for elite upgrades, I have a hard time believing AS wants to give up hundreds of dollars in potential revenue for the seat so they can keep it available for a "free" upgrade.
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Old Apr 30, 19, 11:23 pm
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You do realize you can't tell anything about loads, let alone yields, from a seat map - right?
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Old Apr 30, 19, 11:33 pm
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Originally Posted by Snowdevil View Post
You do realize you can't tell anything about loads, let alone yields, from a seat map - right?
Yes, and the poster mentioned that it is possible that 6 people were booked into F and just hadn't selected a seat, although it is still a somewhat reliable indicator of how full the cabin is at that time.....it's interesting that the poster mentioned this because like I said, I've seen this happen time and time again, but just didn't bother to bring it up on Flyertalk. When you are sitting on a flight in the F cabin with multiple empty seats and the flight was at F0 two days before departure, say what you want about the accuracy of seat maps, something is wonky.
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Old Apr 30, 19, 11:33 pm
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I had looked into a WN flight from SAN-EWR for this fall before the MAX issue started and the flight was no longer there, so I don't know when it was cancelled. A friend did just fly on the nonstop 2 weeks ago.
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Old Apr 30, 19, 11:41 pm
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Originally Posted by AS Flyer View Post
I'm trying to figure out what you're saying here. For some reason, none of this makes any sense to me. Underselling F means more upgrades so I'm not even sure why anyone here would be opposed to that. Nevertheless, my point is that, while there may be some $499 fares, that's usually limited to a couple of seats and then prices start getting higher. Whether they sell the entire F cabin or not, ???
Could we be seeing married segment "logic"? AS thinks they can make more money selling these segments in FC as part of a connection than as standalone O&D flights? Revenue management doesn't control inventory or set prices based on each segment alone but rather consider interactions within the route network to assess profitability.
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Old May 1, 19, 12:39 am
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In looking at the seat maps, I noticed they have 16 F seat which means a 900 or 321. Could AS be holding the final row of F to guard against possiblly down grading 4 passengers due to an aircraft swap with an 800 with only 12F. Better to have the seats go out empty than refunding the most of the F fare due to a down grade
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Last edited by SNAnghbr; May 1, 19 at 12:40 am Reason: Spelling
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