sltlyamusd

I think its probably a short-term thing pending new aircraft deliveries. AS has done this in the past on other routes like SJC-PDX. The evening OAK-SEA has been full whenever I fly and the fares aren't much different than out of SFO (if anything, SFO is often cheaper). OAK-SEA used to have more flights a few years ago, its a shame so many have shifted to the more congested SFO.

eponymous_coward

Like I've been trying to say three times, who knows if it's "for good"? It could be. It could not.

Unless you've got airline revenue management experience and access to the in-depth numbers on the route (including AS's financials), the people who do route planning for the airline probably know better than any of us armchair airline executives what equipment is best put on which route for which best and highest profitable use. And that answer could change based on time of year, etc.

I would not at all be surprised if going forward AS does some SEA-Bay Area operations on OO during slow periods, rather than sell a bunch of $39/49 seats, especially as they bring the E175s with F online...

IStream

EC, I appreciate your answer to my first question but your condescension is getting old. I don't think anyone here presumes to know the answer to the question of relative profitability in the absence of the necessary inside info. However, it's not unheard of for certain AS personnel to chime in with enlightening answers to such questions.

ANC

I agree^ For anyone who hasnt flown on the 175 yet, it is a quite nice little plane. Much more quiet than a 734 and the annoying buzz saw noise of next gen 737s during take offs is pretty much absent. Unlike the 734 there is no middle seat to get stuck into. I also like the 1 and 2 configuration in F. You can select a seat on the left side if traveling alone and you have both the window and aisle all to yourself

eponymous_coward

You expect an AS employee to report confidential internal revenue numbers on an Internet message board? Stuff that I'm sure Delta and other competitors would love to hear?

Maybe if they want to get fired. That's the kind of thing a C-level exec maybe might tell analysts during your quarterly conference call, in a very sanitized fashion, if at all.

I doubt they're planning on leaving the OAK market. Right sizing your operations is what you do.

-shrug-

channa

That may be part of it, but the DL onslaught may be part as well.

They have a finite number of aircraft. They have a partner-competitor gaining market share at their largest hub. They need to defend their turf to increase reach and maintain their network.

They may be pulling aircraft off SEA-OAK, and making less money with said aircraft, in order to defend their turf and make DL's life more difficult. Frankly we don't know.



$125 is plenty.

AS's mainline CASM was 10.09 cents per mile in Q1. This is a 672 mile flight, so the rate they need to recover per seat is $67.80. Divide by AS mainline's 83.8% load factor, and each pax needs to pay $80.91 in fare to cover their costs and their share of the costs of the empty seats on the plane. Load factor is pretty high on this route, so it might even be less per person to cover it.


This would be less of an issue if AS had F in their CR7s. As you point out, an RJ can be better than mainline. The problem is AS's all-Y CR7 fleet.

If DL started this market with its CR7s, that would be more palatable than AS's CR7s. DL's have WiFi, streaming media, and F seats with meals, pillows, blankets, bottles of water and pre-departure beverages. Heck, that may even be an improvement over AS mainline.

eponymous_coward

AS will be switching their OO CR7s to E175s over the next few months.

IStream

More condescension. Does that come naturally with 10,000+ posts?

Edit: I guess not. Channa is both civil and constructive...

eponymous_coward

More like "I don't exactly understand what you expect to get posted from AS employees who are FT members that would put your mind at ease, given that there's an expectation of a certain amount of confidentiality regarding the business that shouldn't get posted as Internet gossip, not to mention a natural inability to exactly 100% predict the future in any business". Are you looking for a date where they'd bring mainline back, even though the schedule for that isn't public yet? Ideas on when they'd switch CRJs for ERJs? Assurances that they won't drop OAK service? I'm not exactly clear.

If you think my lack of understanding is condescension... I guess I'm condescending. I'm sorry to have offended you.

formeraa

Precisely. No need to use larger aircraft and more expensive flight crews for a bunch of $39/$49 fares! As I've said MANY times before, a full plane is not necessarily a profitable plane. And, in fact, to achieve 80%+ load factors, most flights are going to be full these days. But full does not equal profitable.

That said, call AS Customer Service and express your discontent. They may do something about it!

bofc

So many responses parrot a general theme: "this must be a good idea or AS, armed with lots of data, wouldn't do it". What a joke! This theme completely excludes a key qualitative driver of "strategic" decisions made by airlines that make the entire industry among the least profitable in private industry - things like "we must compete with Delta at all costs" and "we need to be in that market". Really? Sometimes they are good decisions. But often they are not. The "investment" associated with changing routes/equipment often minimizes the weight of losing the loyalty of impacted passengers and overstates the "value" of re-deploying equipment elsewhere. So the premise that "this is a good idea.....or they wouldn't do it" is a complete farce. Only Southwest will win on this one (as has happened before - they just reported record profits in part by benefiting from some questionable moves by other airlines).

beckoa

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/alask...d-traffic.html

AS Flyer

Every other airline, including Alaska, announced record profits too. Most of those record profits at every airline were possible because of the low fuel prices.