AS Predictions thread for 2010
Jan 20, 2010, 8:00 pm
#31
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: WA State
Posts: 386
QX will receive permission in 2010 to fly out of Paine Field, Everett. QX announces service to start 2011. Lawsuits hold up start of service to 2012. When 2012 rolls around QX decides they really did
n't want to fly out of Everett after all.
n't want to fly out of Everett after all.
Jan 20, 2010, 8:58 pm
#32
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: FL380
Posts: 254
So here is a recap so far (I hope I got most of them):
Routes Added (with conviction):
AS - Hawaii from anywhere to anywhere
AS - Portland-Kona
AS - Portland-Lihue x2
AS - 2nd Seattle- Lihue
AS - San Diego-Maui
AS - San Diego-Hawaii
AS - 2nd Houston
AS - 2nd Atlanta
AS - Portland-Newark
AS - Portland-Austin
AS- Portland-MSP
AS - Portland- Orlando (or Miami)
AS - A new city
AS - A new slot controlled airport (JFK/LGA/??)
AS - Moves Newark to JFK
AS - Takes over Seattle-Calgary
AS - Seattle-Milwaukee
AS - Seattle - New Orleans or Indianapolis
AS - One of Salt Lake, Philly, Albuquerque, Charlotte, St. Louis
AS - 2 more Seattle-LAX flights (not sure how many that would be total)
AS - Seasonal MSP-Anchorage, Portland or Oakland
AS - Move more Bay Area service over to SJC
AS - San Antonio
AS - Salt Lake City
AS - Anywhere in Central America
QX - Everett x6
QX - Portland - Calgary
QX - New service from Santa Rosa
QX - To the state of Alaska
QX- Nanaimo
QX - SJC to somewhere
QX - Allegiant routes out of LAX
No new routes to Delta hubs (leaves JFK, DTW, MEM, CVG and SLC)
Expanded SJC service
Routes Ended (with conviction):
AS - PDX-Denver x2
AS - Cuts on Phoenix-Seattle
QX - Walla Walla
QX - Spokane - Sacramento/San Jose (after Labor Day)
QX - Boise - Sacramento/San Jose
QX - Seattle - Idaho Falls (such a great prediction as it already has ended)
QX - Nanaimo
Routes Speculated (not so much conviction):
Philadelphia x2
Hilo
San Jose, CR
Belize
San Jose, CA - San Diego
Routes assumed from Delta
Milwaukee
2nd Tucson
Service:
No upgrades on AA (no reciprocity) x2
More connections on AA (Chicago/Dallas)
Bag fees increase x4
Gold upgrades go electronic
New buy on board options
Catering changes - Drinks
New fees on award redemption
Switch to GoGo for wifi
Row 44 installed x2
DL elite reciprocity (June)
AA one way awards
No DEQM promotion
Top-Pot donuts on QX in March
More first class meal options on flights under 3 hours
Lumexis IFE
Choice seat fee
Golds will still get free ticket changes
Golds will pay ticket change fee
Realignment of MVP/MVPG
Platinum (higher tier) x2
No Platinum (higher tier) x2
Reduced Bonus miles for MVPs (25%)
More EQMs required to get MVP/MVPG
Partners:
Icelandair x2
Alitalia
Midwest(Republic)
Delta blooms like a "sunflower"
Era (Expanded partnership)
Delta pressures AS to end AA
Another SkyTeam partner
No alliance x2
Paint Jobs
Highline CC themed Q400 (my favorite prediction)
Cal themed Q400
Stanford themed Q400
Unknown new painted plane for AS
Other:
Merger with Hawaiian - fight over the new name
Fewer MVPs and Golds due to the economy
Alaska to buy longer range plane (non 737)
No Merger
AAG Profitable
QX rumored to look at 100 seat plane
Longshot
Routes Added (with conviction):
AS - Hawaii from anywhere to anywhere
AS - Portland-Kona
AS - Portland-Lihue x2
AS - 2nd Seattle- Lihue
AS - San Diego-Maui
AS - San Diego-Hawaii
AS - 2nd Houston
AS - 2nd Atlanta
AS - Portland-Newark
AS - Portland-Austin
AS- Portland-MSP
AS - Portland- Orlando (or Miami)
AS - A new city
AS - A new slot controlled airport (JFK/LGA/??)
AS - Moves Newark to JFK
AS - Takes over Seattle-Calgary
AS - Seattle-Milwaukee
AS - Seattle - New Orleans or Indianapolis
AS - One of Salt Lake, Philly, Albuquerque, Charlotte, St. Louis
AS - 2 more Seattle-LAX flights (not sure how many that would be total)
AS - Seasonal MSP-Anchorage, Portland or Oakland
AS - Move more Bay Area service over to SJC
AS - San Antonio
AS - Salt Lake City
AS - Anywhere in Central America
QX - Everett x6
QX - Portland - Calgary
QX - New service from Santa Rosa
QX - To the state of Alaska
QX- Nanaimo
QX - SJC to somewhere
QX - Allegiant routes out of LAX
No new routes to Delta hubs (leaves JFK, DTW, MEM, CVG and SLC)
Expanded SJC service
Routes Ended (with conviction):
AS - PDX-Denver x2
AS - Cuts on Phoenix-Seattle
QX - Walla Walla
QX - Spokane - Sacramento/San Jose (after Labor Day)
QX - Boise - Sacramento/San Jose
QX - Seattle - Idaho Falls (such a great prediction as it already has ended)
QX - Nanaimo
Routes Speculated (not so much conviction):
Philadelphia x2
Hilo
San Jose, CR
Belize
San Jose, CA - San Diego
Routes assumed from Delta
Milwaukee
2nd Tucson
Service:
No upgrades on AA (no reciprocity) x2
More connections on AA (Chicago/Dallas)
Bag fees increase x4
Gold upgrades go electronic
New buy on board options
Catering changes - Drinks
New fees on award redemption
Switch to GoGo for wifi
Row 44 installed x2
DL elite reciprocity (June)
AA one way awards
No DEQM promotion
Top-Pot donuts on QX in March
More first class meal options on flights under 3 hours
Lumexis IFE
Choice seat fee
Golds will still get free ticket changes
Golds will pay ticket change fee
Realignment of MVP/MVPG
Platinum (higher tier) x2
No Platinum (higher tier) x2
Reduced Bonus miles for MVPs (25%)
More EQMs required to get MVP/MVPG
Partners:
Icelandair x2
Alitalia
Midwest(Republic)
Delta blooms like a "sunflower"
Era (Expanded partnership)
Delta pressures AS to end AA
Another SkyTeam partner
No alliance x2
Paint Jobs
Highline CC themed Q400 (my favorite prediction)
Cal themed Q400
Stanford themed Q400
Unknown new painted plane for AS
Other:
Merger with Hawaiian - fight over the new name
Fewer MVPs and Golds due to the economy
Alaska to buy longer range plane (non 737)
No Merger
AAG Profitable
QX rumored to look at 100 seat plane
Longshot
My predictions for 2010:
- In an effort to earn more guaranteed revenue from EAS, AS will move their hub to ADK, and discontinue direct service between SEA and PDX, YKM, YYJ, and EAT, but re-route all these flights through Adak.
- AS will finally launch the long sought after SEA-PIT 4x, 2x of which will make use of their new yet-to-be-delivered 48 F configured aircraft, with full bar/restaurant lounge in the aft of the aircraft, called "The Eskimo Club"
- AS will drop plans to deploy row44/gogo, remove 20 aft seats from all aircraft to make room for the installation of servers that will store "The Best of the Internet", downloaded 4x monthly.
- AS will launch MVP Platinum and MVP Unobtainium, in which the latter you will be provided your own personal Toruk during irregular operations (however, as the name implies, you will never be able to fly the 1,000,000,000,000,000 yearly miles required)
- SeaPort Airlines will attempt a hostile takeover of Alaska Air Group, but fail after shareholders realize voodoo donuts will not be offered throughout the AS route system after the merger
- AS mileage plan will partner with Falkland Islands Government Air Service, Greyhound (launched with a DEQM offer), and Icaro Air.
- MVP Gold and higher will have the option of using jumpseats on overbooked flights
- In an effort to earn more guaranteed revenue from EAS, AS will move their hub to ADK, and discontinue direct service between SEA and PDX, YKM, YYJ, and EAT, but re-route all these flights through Adak.
- AS will finally launch the long sought after SEA-PIT 4x, 2x of which will make use of their new yet-to-be-delivered 48 F configured aircraft, with full bar/restaurant lounge in the aft of the aircraft, called "The Eskimo Club"
- AS will drop plans to deploy row44/gogo, remove 20 aft seats from all aircraft to make room for the installation of servers that will store "The Best of the Internet", downloaded 4x monthly.
- AS will launch MVP Platinum and MVP Unobtainium, in which the latter you will be provided your own personal Toruk during irregular operations (however, as the name implies, you will never be able to fly the 1,000,000,000,000,000 yearly miles required)
- SeaPort Airlines will attempt a hostile takeover of Alaska Air Group, but fail after shareholders realize voodoo donuts will not be offered throughout the AS route system after the merger
- AS mileage plan will partner with Falkland Islands Government Air Service, Greyhound (launched with a DEQM offer), and Icaro Air.
- MVP Gold and higher will have the option of using jumpseats on overbooked flights
Jan 20, 2010, 9:19 pm
#33
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend, Moderator, Information Desk, Ambassador, Alaska Airlines
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: FAI
Programs: AS MVP Gold100K, AS 1MM, Maika`i Card, AGR, HH Gold, Hertz PC, Marriott Titanium LTG, CO, 7H, BA, 8E
Posts: 42,953
Predictions:
AS adds ANC-Hawaii service seasonally (Fall/winter 2010) ANC-KOA/LIH
QX gains approval for PAE, but doesn't get to start until 2011
AS adds additional frequencies on SEA-ATL & SEA-IAH
AS adds SEA-DTW
Boardroom added in OGG
QX will dabble with an F cabin on longer Q400 flights to Bay Area/ SoCal
QX will ultimately sell/park/give away its CRJ700's....
AS adds ANC-Hawaii service seasonally (Fall/winter 2010) ANC-KOA/LIH
QX gains approval for PAE, but doesn't get to start until 2011
AS adds additional frequencies on SEA-ATL & SEA-IAH
AS adds SEA-DTW
Boardroom added in OGG
QX will dabble with an F cabin on longer Q400 flights to Bay Area/ SoCal
QX will ultimately sell/park/give away its CRJ700's....
Jan 20, 2010, 11:07 pm
#34
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
I'll make my predictions based on LAX 
+AS continues to cut Mexico service
+AS/QX takes over LAX/SNA-SJC from AE
+AS moves to Terminal 6 in Nov. [not sure if that qualifies as a prediction
]
+AS takes over some DL mainline routes [MSY, MCO, IND] at LAX to allow DL focus on expanding Int'l service at LAX [perhaps in 2011]
+A new vacation destination out of LAX [BZE, MBJ, SJO, or whatever]
+LAX-ANC goes year round
+AS/QX ditches LGB
+AS prepares to shift focus from PDX to LAX for 2011 and starts a website www.alaskaair.com/lax [they will have room to add 30+ flights a day when they move into T-6 since they will have rights to the same # of gates in T-6 that they currently have in T-3 and DL will give AS rights to their T-6 gates]
Other Predictions
+MVPG change fees does not change [still free]
+BoardRoom initiation fee waiver for MVP/G reduces [will cost more for MVPs and MVPGs due to new tier]
+Award redemption fees does not change [still free on AS except for tax and $25 for partners+reservation fee]
+Baggage fees for non-elites goes up
+Reciprocity on AA except for upgrades
+QX paints a plane in USC livery and flies the plane SEA-BOI-PDX-EUG-SEA-PLW-SEA daily just to tease die-hard UW, WSU, UO, OSU, and BSU fans
+AS improves F soft product on transcons [hot towels, special premium drinks like Margarita or Martini, etc] to remain competitive with other airlines who offers flights with Int'l hard products
+QX changes their seats and installs the same seats Colgan uses
+AS and Emirates drafts a codeshare agreement in preparation for when Emirates starts SEA service.
+AS ends partnership with BA due to their diluted redemption value [fuel surcharge] and limited RDM opportunities [25% RDM for all non-full fare classes]
Some wild predictions here, but nowhere near Maokh's
+AS continues to cut Mexico service
+AS/QX takes over LAX/SNA-SJC from AE
+AS moves to Terminal 6 in Nov. [not sure if that qualifies as a prediction
]+AS takes over some DL mainline routes [MSY, MCO, IND] at LAX to allow DL focus on expanding Int'l service at LAX [perhaps in 2011]
+A new vacation destination out of LAX [BZE, MBJ, SJO, or whatever]
+LAX-ANC goes year round
+AS/QX ditches LGB
+AS prepares to shift focus from PDX to LAX for 2011 and starts a website www.alaskaair.com/lax [they will have room to add 30+ flights a day when they move into T-6 since they will have rights to the same # of gates in T-6 that they currently have in T-3 and DL will give AS rights to their T-6 gates]
Other Predictions
+MVPG change fees does not change [still free]
+BoardRoom initiation fee waiver for MVP/G reduces [will cost more for MVPs and MVPGs due to new tier]
+Award redemption fees does not change [still free on AS except for tax and $25 for partners+reservation fee]
+Baggage fees for non-elites goes up
+Reciprocity on AA except for upgrades
+QX paints a plane in USC livery and flies the plane SEA-BOI-PDX-EUG-SEA-PLW-SEA daily just to tease die-hard UW, WSU, UO, OSU, and BSU fans
+AS improves F soft product on transcons [hot towels, special premium drinks like Margarita or Martini, etc] to remain competitive with other airlines who offers flights with Int'l hard products
+QX changes their seats and installs the same seats Colgan uses
+AS and Emirates drafts a codeshare agreement in preparation for when Emirates starts SEA service.
+AS ends partnership with BA due to their diluted redemption value [fuel surcharge] and limited RDM opportunities [25% RDM for all non-full fare classes]
Some wild predictions here, but nowhere near Maokh's
Jan 21, 2010, 1:34 am
#35
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Vancouver (Not BC), WA (Not DC)...I'm in a PDX flight path.
Programs: Elite peon; MR Gold; HH Silver; BW Diamond (status match)
Posts: 985
I'll throw a suggestion in for the university paint jobs on QX...
With the strong push for PDX in 2010, how about a Portland State paint job?
(Okay, so maybe I'm a little bit biased, since I'm currently at student at Portland State...lol).
With the strong push for PDX in 2010, how about a Portland State paint job?
(Okay, so maybe I'm a little bit biased, since I'm currently at student at Portland State...lol).
Jan 21, 2010, 8:52 am
#36
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Upper Left Corner of the Map
Programs: AS MVPG & Board Room, Marriott Silver, Global Entry
Posts: 2,203
Portland State would be fun...they've done the NCAA dance, so they can get a plane right after Gonzaga does. (OK, I am an alum of the latter, and the head basketball coach at the former is my cousin).
Jan 21, 2010, 6:04 pm
#38
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: ANC, SAP
Programs: AS MVP Gold, Priority Pass
Posts: 1,863
with regard to MVPG 75K...interesting that the structure seems "easier" for those qualifying on segments; i.e. those flying on Alaska Airlines need to fly 87.5% more than MVPG to qualify, those flying on partners need to fly only 80% more, but those qualifying on segments need to fly only 50% more than MVPG. I was thinking this tier would be: 60K AS, 75K partner, 90 segments.
Also, I'm confused about the 50K bonus - am I correct that if you fly 75 partner miles but don't qualify for 75K (i.e. you don't fly 75K AS miles or 90K partners)? That doesn't seem right, but it's not listed as a "benefit" for MVPG's - perhaps they mean to say not an automatic benefit? But there are definitely cases where an MVPG might get the bonus but not make 75K.
Also, I'm confused about the 50K bonus - am I correct that if you fly 75 partner miles but don't qualify for 75K (i.e. you don't fly 75K AS miles or 90K partners)? That doesn't seem right, but it's not listed as a "benefit" for MVPG's - perhaps they mean to say not an automatic benefit? But there are definitely cases where an MVPG might get the bonus but not make 75K.
Jan 21, 2010, 6:38 pm
#42
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,397
As the OP for the thread, I don't take my predictions TOO seriously (seeing as my experience operating airlines or working in the industry is about the same as my experience as a brain surgeon- nil), so I don't see that posts confirming predictions are out of place, or demonstrating predictions in this thread as being wrong. Or even a little off-topic discussion.
The idea is to have a little fun. I assume we like fun.
(seeing as my experience operating airlines or working in the industry is about the same as my experience as a brain surgeon- nil), so I don't see that posts confirming predictions are out of place, or demonstrating predictions in this thread as being wrong. Or even a little off-topic discussion. The idea is to have a little fun. I assume we like fun.
Jan 21, 2010, 7:23 pm
#43
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Florida
Programs: Mileage Plus, Priority Club
Posts: 4,649
I'll make my predictions based on LAX
+AS continues to cut Mexico service
+AS/QX takes over LAX/SNA-SJC from AE
+AS moves to Terminal 6 in Nov. [not sure if that qualifies as a prediction]
+AS takes over some DL mainline routes [MSY, MCO, IND] at LAX to allow DL focus on expanding Int'l service at LAX [perhaps in 2011]
+A new vacation destination out of LAX [BZE, MBJ, SJO, or whatever]
+LAX-ANC goes year round
+AS/QX ditches LGB
+AS prepares to shift focus from PDX to LAX for 2011 and starts a website www.alaskaair.com/lax [they will have room to add 30+ flights a day when they move into T-6 since they will have rights to the same # of gates in T-6 that they currently have in T-3 and DL will give AS rights to their T-6 gates]
Other Predictions
+MVPG change fees does not change [still free]
+BoardRoom initiation fee waiver for MVP/G reduces [will cost more for MVPs and MVPGs due to new tier]
+Award redemption fees does not change [still free on AS except for tax and $25 for partners+reservation fee]
+Baggage fees for non-elites goes up
+Reciprocity on AA except for upgrades
+QX paints a plane in USC livery and flies the plane SEA-BOI-PDX-EUG-SEA-PLW-SEA daily just to tease die-hard UW, WSU, UO, OSU, and BSU fans
+AS improves F soft product on transcons [hot towels, special premium drinks like Margarita or Martini, etc] to remain competitive with other airlines who offers flights with Int'l hard products
+QX changes their seats and installs the same seats Colgan uses
+AS and Emirates drafts a codeshare agreement in preparation for when Emirates starts SEA service.
+AS ends partnership with BA due to their diluted redemption value [fuel surcharge] and limited RDM opportunities [25% RDM for all non-full fare classes]
Some wild predictions here, but nowhere near Maokh's
+AS continues to cut Mexico service
+AS/QX takes over LAX/SNA-SJC from AE
+AS moves to Terminal 6 in Nov. [not sure if that qualifies as a prediction
]+AS takes over some DL mainline routes [MSY, MCO, IND] at LAX to allow DL focus on expanding Int'l service at LAX [perhaps in 2011]
+A new vacation destination out of LAX [BZE, MBJ, SJO, or whatever]
+LAX-ANC goes year round
+AS/QX ditches LGB
+AS prepares to shift focus from PDX to LAX for 2011 and starts a website www.alaskaair.com/lax [they will have room to add 30+ flights a day when they move into T-6 since they will have rights to the same # of gates in T-6 that they currently have in T-3 and DL will give AS rights to their T-6 gates]
Other Predictions
+MVPG change fees does not change [still free]
+BoardRoom initiation fee waiver for MVP/G reduces [will cost more for MVPs and MVPGs due to new tier]
+Award redemption fees does not change [still free on AS except for tax and $25 for partners+reservation fee]
+Baggage fees for non-elites goes up
+Reciprocity on AA except for upgrades
+QX paints a plane in USC livery and flies the plane SEA-BOI-PDX-EUG-SEA-PLW-SEA daily just to tease die-hard UW, WSU, UO, OSU, and BSU fans
+AS improves F soft product on transcons [hot towels, special premium drinks like Margarita or Martini, etc] to remain competitive with other airlines who offers flights with Int'l hard products
+QX changes their seats and installs the same seats Colgan uses
+AS and Emirates drafts a codeshare agreement in preparation for when Emirates starts SEA service.
+AS ends partnership with BA due to their diluted redemption value [fuel surcharge] and limited RDM opportunities [25% RDM for all non-full fare classes]
Some wild predictions here, but nowhere near Maokh's
Jan 21, 2010, 8:18 pm
#44
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: PDX
Programs: AS MVP Gold 100K
Posts: 2,995
That said, when Mexico demand dropped off, I think that was the primary reason that LAX-ANC was dropped in the winter. AS has flown this route in the winter months before and from what I heard it was mostly Mexico connections. With the new, nonstop service between ANC and Hawaii pleasing us Alaskan sunseekers, I'd be surprised if LAX-ANC returns in the winter anytime soon, outside of maybe the holiday rush.