Ben Smith's expectations for ramping up operations
Apr 17, 2020, 4:02 am
#31
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Tracing would help a lot too and seems misunderstood by French media.
Apr 17, 2020, 5:07 am
#32
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I admire Ben Smith's optimism.
I sincerely don't see intercontinental travel reopening until very late this year (November?) and still, I'd put my money in some sort of health/Covid certificate being required by many countries for entering their borders. Testing every incomer and taking many of them into a hotel quarantine is a logistics challenge and costs governments lots of money. This could even turn into the reinstatement of visas between countries that haven't required them for decades as a way to control the flows of people.
I can see intra-Schengen traffic resuming earlier, maybe as soon as this summer. However, it will take a while for consumers to change their behaviour. Until a vaccine is found and made available, I believe Zoom/Webex/Skype meetings are to stay and tourists will think twice before boarding a plane, spending a night in a hotel or even ordering food at a restaurant. Besides, and depending on how the situation evolves, the threat of new lockdowns upon reaching a second wave of infections is latent, and nobody wants to be caught in a foreign country should this re-occur.
I sincerely don't see intercontinental travel reopening until very late this year (November?) and still, I'd put my money in some sort of health/Covid certificate being required by many countries for entering their borders. Testing every incomer and taking many of them into a hotel quarantine is a logistics challenge and costs governments lots of money. This could even turn into the reinstatement of visas between countries that haven't required them for decades as a way to control the flows of people.
I can see intra-Schengen traffic resuming earlier, maybe as soon as this summer. However, it will take a while for consumers to change their behaviour. Until a vaccine is found and made available, I believe Zoom/Webex/Skype meetings are to stay and tourists will think twice before boarding a plane, spending a night in a hotel or even ordering food at a restaurant. Besides, and depending on how the situation evolves, the threat of new lockdowns upon reaching a second wave of infections is latent, and nobody wants to be caught in a foreign country should this re-occur.
Apr 17, 2020, 6:33 am
#33
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I don't think anything is linked to herd immunity in Europe. Macron just said Monday that as there are so very few infected people in France there is no question of waiting for herd immunity. I think that is the opinion of all of Europe.
And sorry to make a dispassionate argument, but yes a half million deaths is less disruptive than an economic collapse. Much less. People are not realizing the danger we are in because the government is covering us all, at least to a certain degree. But the government has hardly any money coming in and a whole lot of money going out. Remember that in addition to these COVID expenses, they are still paying all those pensions and the full salaries of all those government workers. That cannot continue for much longer because government leaders also realize that it will take a long time for the government coffers to be replenished. Years. And when things get tight, it is the poor who will starve or have to fight to eat. All these policies that restrict business fail to account for the fact that they are crushing poor people all over the world. The rich will survive just fine.
And sorry to make a dispassionate argument, but yes a half million deaths is less disruptive than an economic collapse. Much less. People are not realizing the danger we are in because the government is covering us all, at least to a certain degree. But the government has hardly any money coming in and a whole lot of money going out. Remember that in addition to these COVID expenses, they are still paying all those pensions and the full salaries of all those government workers. That cannot continue for much longer because government leaders also realize that it will take a long time for the government coffers to be replenished. Years. And when things get tight, it is the poor who will starve or have to fight to eat. All these policies that restrict business fail to account for the fact that they are crushing poor people all over the world. The rich will survive just fine.
European countries need to share the burden. I don't believe austerity is a viable solution for Europe after a recession triggered by a once-in-a-century pandemic. Countries that rely on tourism will suffer disproportionately unless they have the financial firepower needed to support their economies and citizens.
Apr 17, 2020, 7:47 am
#34
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Actually I am on your side of "economics" vs "deaths", to put it bluntly. Despite my advanced age, extra kilos and other risk factors that make me a primary target.
I can understand that elected officials are inclined to err on the side of health caution for popularity motives. In some way, it has become some world cup between countries under media pressure.
However, I have been associated with discussions of the practicalities of the alternative of, let's call it for shortcut,"herd immunity" or do little. The concept is simple and seductive. We learnt that the virus was much more agressive, complex and contagious that we thought a few weeks ago. That's bad news. Fatality rates estimates vary widely and have been revised upwards. An "old" WHO estimate is 3.4%, but estimates vary widely from 1 to 10%. We simply don't know, as we don't know the percentage of asymptomatic people and their dynamics. As time passes they might develop symptoms and could well die in the future. Anyone who dies today was likely infected but asymptomatic a while ago Fatality rates are kept pretty low as patients can be hospitalized and oxygened during mitigation when hospitals are not saturated, but that won't be the case if we let the virus spread to continue full economic activity. Fatality rates will be higher simply because hospitals will be totally overwhelmed. We know that older people are dis-proportionally affected, so top management will be more affected than young staff. That might be good news for some
So let's pick and arbitrary fatality rate of 5% with immediate resumption of all activities. That means that roughly 3 million French will die over the year (or maybe less) it takes the virus to spread nationwide. Some dispassionate analysis would say this is a reasonable price to pay to return to normal economics. And my cold heart would tend to agree.
I can understand that elected officials are inclined to err on the side of health caution for popularity motives. In some way, it has become some world cup between countries under media pressure.
However, I have been associated with discussions of the practicalities of the alternative of, let's call it for shortcut,"herd immunity" or do little. The concept is simple and seductive. We learnt that the virus was much more agressive, complex and contagious that we thought a few weeks ago. That's bad news. Fatality rates estimates vary widely and have been revised upwards. An "old" WHO estimate is 3.4%, but estimates vary widely from 1 to 10%. We simply don't know, as we don't know the percentage of asymptomatic people and their dynamics. As time passes they might develop symptoms and could well die in the future. Anyone who dies today was likely infected but asymptomatic a while ago Fatality rates are kept pretty low as patients can be hospitalized and oxygened during mitigation when hospitals are not saturated, but that won't be the case if we let the virus spread to continue full economic activity. Fatality rates will be higher simply because hospitals will be totally overwhelmed. We know that older people are dis-proportionally affected, so top management will be more affected than young staff. That might be good news for some
So let's pick and arbitrary fatality rate of 5% with immediate resumption of all activities. That means that roughly 3 million French will die over the year (or maybe less) it takes the virus to spread nationwide. Some dispassionate analysis would say this is a reasonable price to pay to return to normal economics. And my cold heart would tend to agree.
And you may notice that phase 1 includes only essential travel, phase 2 allows for open business travel and some personal travel, and phase 3 is wide open skies. Perhaps Ben Smith and other airline CEO's are relying on this approach.
Apr 17, 2020, 8:55 am
#35
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Intresting thoughts, just want to throw in two more:
What about the fact that governments may allow people to go to work, travel, etc - but people don't do it because they are afraid? Some countries currently discuss giving employees a right to refuse to work but continue to be paid. When that happens the economy will not pick up not because of restrictions but because of fear. That wil lhave a direct impact on how of their previous capacities airlines will re-activate.
And another aspect that isn't discussed yet: everybody talks about re-igniting the economy now and has an opinion whether it'll be a V-shaped, a U-shaped or an L-shaped recovery curve. Whichever it is, what is certain is that public finances will deteriorate to a level where we may end up having a Greece-style crisis on steroids in 2-3 years.
What about the fact that governments may allow people to go to work, travel, etc - but people don't do it because they are afraid? Some countries currently discuss giving employees a right to refuse to work but continue to be paid. When that happens the economy will not pick up not because of restrictions but because of fear. That wil lhave a direct impact on how of their previous capacities airlines will re-activate.
And another aspect that isn't discussed yet: everybody talks about re-igniting the economy now and has an opinion whether it'll be a V-shaped, a U-shaped or an L-shaped recovery curve. Whichever it is, what is certain is that public finances will deteriorate to a level where we may end up having a Greece-style crisis on steroids in 2-3 years.
Apr 17, 2020, 9:02 am
#36
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What about the fact that governments may allow people to go to work, travel, etc - but people don't do it because they are afraid? Some countries currently discuss giving employees a right to refuse to work but continue to be paid. When that happens the economy will not pick up not because of restrictions but because of fear. That wil lhave a direct impact on how of their previous capacities airlines will re-activate.
Apr 17, 2020, 9:09 am
#37
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After 9/11 the causes were understood and remedy more or less "easy". And, what is an even bigger difference, it was only about air travel, but otherwise life could continue more or less normally. Simply don't fly if you're afraid.
In the current Covid situation the danger is not just in a specific situation such as flying, but everywhere and anytime - you may be infected when you walk out the door of your home. Many people are afraid of that. Remedies are more tricky as the virus isn't fully understood. My point was less about people flying less for fear of flying. It is about people not lving a normal life and bringing the economy to a slowdown, which in turn affects air travel, among other things. Much much bigger issue.
Apr 17, 2020, 9:12 am
#38
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You did indeed talk about people coming back to fly after 9/11, when one would have thought that more would be scared of being hit by a terrorist attack when flying.. That is not the same thing though.
After 9/11 the causes were understood and remedy more or less "easy". And, what is an even bigger difference, it was only about air travel, but otherwise life could continue more or less normally. Simply don't fly if you're afraid.
In the current Covid situation the danger is not just in a specific situation such as flying, but everywhere and anytime - you may be infected when you walk out the door of your home. Many people are afraid of that. Remedies are more tricky as the virus isn't fully understood. My point was less about people flying less for fear of flying. It is about people not lving a normal life and bringing the economy to a slowdown, which in turn affects air travel, among other things. Much much bigger issue.
After 9/11 the causes were understood and remedy more or less "easy". And, what is an even bigger difference, it was only about air travel, but otherwise life could continue more or less normally. Simply don't fly if you're afraid.
In the current Covid situation the danger is not just in a specific situation such as flying, but everywhere and anytime - you may be infected when you walk out the door of your home. Many people are afraid of that. Remedies are more tricky as the virus isn't fully understood. My point was less about people flying less for fear of flying. It is about people not lving a normal life and bringing the economy to a slowdown, which in turn affects air travel, among other things. Much much bigger issue.
Apr 17, 2020, 9:15 am
#39
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It had a clear endpoint, and after a short grounding of about a week, flights began to take off again, admittedly slowly.
The current pandemic has not even reached its peak, let alone reach an endpoint. The endpoint cannot currently be anticipated. We are currently entering the 4th month of this event (granted, it has not been declared a pandemic for that long yet), but still air traffic is declining.
Initially, optimists were hoping for a similar V-shaped recovery. However, that is not going to happen. It's going to be U-shaped, at best - or as some have described it, "bathtub shaped" - i.e. a protracted period of minimal economic activity.
https://www.icao.int/sustainability/...n%20Impact.pdf
Last edited by irishguy28; Apr 17, 2020 at 9:26 am
Apr 17, 2020, 9:19 am
#40
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And another aspect that isn't discussed yet: everybody talks about re-igniting the economy now and has an opinion whether it'll be a V-shaped, a U-shaped or an L-shaped recovery curve. Whichever it is, what is certain is that public finances will deteriorate to a level where we may end up having a Greece-style crisis on steroids in 2-3 years.
Apr 17, 2020, 9:24 am
#41
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It was certainly different but it absolutely did not have a clear endpoint, especially from the fear angle. People were still afraid even a year later. And the ways the authorities addressed anti-terrorism and flight safety changed constantly for the first 5 years. I expect with COVID that the authorities will do the same. Keep changing the playbook as they learn over time more about how the virus behaves.
Last edited by stimpy; Apr 17, 2020 at 9:34 am
Apr 17, 2020, 9:29 am
#42
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I agree that we are entering a big economic and financial crisis and it will take at least until 2022 to recover, and still that depends on how the virus evolves, but I also believe this is a pretty strange crisis, in the sense that a considerable amount of people do have larger levels of disposable income than in the pre-Covid era, due to the fact that you are now essentially prohibited from spending your money except for buying groceries. I can see a shopping boom, especially in the luxury sector, as soon as stores start to re-open. Not that it will be enough to save us all from the crisis, but it can be a mitigating effect up to a certain point.
Apr 17, 2020, 10:11 am
#43
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Note that the reduction in flight numbers doesn't exactly correlate with the drop in passenger numbers - even now that the "use it or lose it" rules regarding airport slots have been relaxed.
Flyer Talk: Just 108,977 People Flew in the United States on Friday, According to the TSA
The Guardian: 'Huge environmental waste' as US airlines fly near-empty planes
Flyer Talk: Just 108,977 People Flew in the United States on Friday, According to the TSA
The Guardian: 'Huge environmental waste' as US airlines fly near-empty planes
Apr 17, 2020, 10:18 am
#44
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Given that available capacity on international flights to/from the US actually operated in April 2020 amounts to only 17% of what was originally planned, that seems a bit of an overstatement!
Apr 17, 2020, 10:25 am
#45
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Japan is an interesting case with international cancellatiosn >90% but domestic cancellations at "only" 40%: https://www.airportia.com/coronavirus/?country=JP