Goldorak

I agree with you that this price is way too expensive, but to respond to the part of your post I have bolded, the process is perfectly understandable. Who knows that it is oversold in W and who knows and use Expertflyer among the pax of this flight ? Very likely only you and eventually one other pax. So if they can sell a few, even only one paid upgrade, it's certainly better than giving them all for free as op-ups. Airlines are business, not charity.

bodory

SIN-CDG
Y(N) to W cabin: the now usual 289 EUR at OLCI.

Night flight => No thank you

Fabo.sk

Ended up with an op-up

You can see on Expert Flyer if a flight is oversold? How? I can only see class availability.

I don't know. I was wondering the same with the AF flight to Edinburgh. I don't know how many exactly from the 8 people in the cabin were upgrades, but at least half. I am fairly sure none bought the J seat (at a hour and a half long Euro flight?) for almost 300 EUR, esp. of those status holders who can get the lounge access for free anyway.
But if the update was say 69 EUR, I think there would be a decent chance someone would take a seat or two. And over time, I would say there will be more extra revenue from N people buying 69 EUR upgrade than much less people buying 289 EUR upgrade.

Goldorak

Congratulations ^ Happy for you.

You can guess from class availability. When the upper classes are zeroed-out or when they are close to 0 (like Y5, J5), it is very likely already overbooked. And for Y, even a Y8 is for sure a sign that Y will be full and possibly overbooked.
This being said; it's not because a flight is Y2 for instance the day before that it will go full in Y. Many things can happen like big groups missing a flight or a connection, weather disruptions leading to missed connections, etc. At the opposite, a flight with Y9 and all sub-classes of Eco showing 9 can be full (booking changes, rebooking of missed connections, etc).
Also, some code-share agreements can complicate a lot the interpretation. I am referring to the blocked-seat kind of agreement (not the free-flow one). One airline marketing the flight may be displayed at 0 in all classes, but that doesn't mean that the flight is full because maybe the 2nd airline marketing this flight may still has plenty of availability.
So it is always hard to interpret those figures, but with a bit of experience (and knowing what kind of agreement is in place for code-shares on some routes), you can "feel" a situation.

Fabo.sk

Thanks! It was a nice surprise. And on my first AF flight after getting the Gold card, too! (second flight overall, first one being KL AMS-CDG)

Funnily enough, I was even a bit angry at first... with FB Gold I was finally able to select an upfront seat on AF and was looking forward to trying that out, and having spent the evening in the nice new T2E-L lounge, I wasn't even particularly looking forward to the service, other than out of curiosity
But it's not every day I get to fly in row 1.


A guessing game I do get.
Entertainingly, my flight back home shows Y3, and all others zeroed at two days out... fingers crossed for 2 out of 3?

Fabo.sk

KLM has a different approach. 4/4 available at the moment (GDS availability also went up to J4 I4, but went down to Y2 in the back), will let you know tomorrow how the flight went out.

bodory

6 hours before the flight O1 opened on Expertflyer. Called immediately the Plat line but only upgrade to W was available.

At check in asked for upgrade to J: the price was 989 EUR or 127 500 miles from Y cabin

From W it was 289 EUR as well.

Soullessginger

Reading through all of the threads and trying to understand this whole process. My mind is spinning. Here's a scenario. Please let me know if I am making sense or if I'm totally off base.

IAD-CDG booked PE (A) Aircraft is the Airbus 380-800 which appears to only have 38 PE seats, 16 of which are filled
No Flying Blue status
With so few PE seats, is there a higher chance to get a cash upgrade to Business? According to Expertflyer, there are 9 Z fares available for the Sept 18th flight

I'm not going to lie, the amount of info on this site if overwhelming and I might be totally off of my presumptions.

Goldorak

38 PE seats is quite a lot (this is the largest number of W seats in the AF fleet). PE is not Economy Comfort, it is a separate class of service. If you base your assumptions on how the cabin is filled by looking at the seat map, this is plainly wrong. A seat map is a very poor indicator on how full a cabin is.
And if your flight is only in September, many things can happen until then and so it’s not possible to assess your chance of paid upgrade.

Soullessginger

Thank you for the response. Back to reading and trying to understand this process.

JorgeGomez

already 5 days before departure all booking classes of premium economy were 0. As everybody knows airlines are oversolding airplanes and if so much time before departure all is 0 there is almost 100% sure that it is oversold.

bodory

SIN-CDG
Y(N) to W cabin: 289 EUR at OLCI.

Also to J: 579 at OLCI. Took it.

bodory

Bummer: equipment change. J is now 2-3-2...

Sympathy for the downgraded P pax.

Goldorak

I hope you still have your upgrade !

bodory

I still have it though had to argue a bit to get an aisle seat.

Not the greatest communication from AF at check-in desk: I discovered myself the aircraft swap upon getting the paper boarding pass.
3 hours earlier when buying the upgrade it was still Best seats.

Sorry for OT.